Add Streaking Predators -215 To Your NHL Picks vs. Devils

Jason Lake

Thursday, March 3, 2016 7:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 3, 2016 7:14 PM GMT

The New Jersey Devils have already punted their regular season. It'll be hard to recommend them for your NHL picks when they face the Nashville Predators on Thursday.

Jason's 2015-16 record as of March 1: 1-1 ATS (–0.85 units), 1-8 ML (–8.27 units), 0-1-2 Totals (–1.00 units)

Right off the bat, a correction: I screwed up Wednesday's Leafs-Caps preview. I started off thinking this game was taking place in Toronto when they were actually playing in Washington. Since they were at the Verizon Center, I should have added 0.30 goals for home ice and come up with a kayfabe moneyline of Washington Capitals –279, not Washington –219. Please forgive me. I did eat some bugs recently, so I hope that makes us even.

Let's see if I can get it right for Thursday's game (8:00 p.m. ET) between the New Jersey Devils and the Nashville Predators. I'm looking at two sources, and they both say this game is at the Tire Barn in Nashville. Now all we need are some NHL odds for this matchup. It's already Wednesday evening here at the ranch, and once again, we're waiting for the books to do their thing.

 

Keith Kinkaid Lives
At least this gives us another chance to work some mathematical magic. Okay, the guys at Hockey-Reference already did the magic; they've got Nashville (+0.18 SRS) a bit less than half a goal per game better than New Jersey (–0.25 SRS) on their Simple Rating System. Where are they playing? Nashville, if I recall correctly. Add 0.30 goals for the Preds, make each tenth of a goal worth 10 cents on the moneyline, and you get... Nashville –173.

That's all other things being equal, of course, which they never are. According to Left Wing Lock, Keith Kinkaid (.912 save percentage) has already been confirmed to start for New Jersey. Kinkaid isn't quite as good as the No. 1 goalie in town, Cory Schneider (.924 SV%). On top of that, the Devils (30-27-7) have been whittled down by injuries and trades. Two of their best scorers are gone: LW Mike Cammalleri (14 goals, 24 assists) missed all of February with an injured hand, and RW Lee Stempniak (16 goals, 25 assists) was sent to the Boston Bruins for a pair of draft picks.

 

A Pekka Pickled Peppers
The Predators (32-21-11) have won five straight games to get back into playoff contention in the West. They're relatively healthy, and they're projected to start Pekka Rinne (.910 SV%) in net, although he hasn't had his best season this year. The good news: Rinne seems to have regained his form, posting a .924 save percentage in February.

Without the benefit of some odds to look at, we're leaning toward recommending Nashville for your NHL picks, provided the spread comes out somewhere in the neighborhood of the –173 we came up with based on the advanced stats. As always, keep your stick on the ice, and may the cylinder be with you.

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NHL Pick: Predators -215
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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