Did the Ducks find a formula to success in game three when they scored 6 times or will the Oilers rebound with a more disciplined effort in game four? Dana Lane explains why the ‘Under’ is a winner tonight.
Both teams the Ducks and Oilers received a much-needed rest between games three and four but how does a two-day layoff typically affect both teams in relation to betting ‘totals’?
In the Ducks last 8 games playing on two days rest or more, the ‘under’ is 5-1-2 while the Oilers 'under' come in at 8-2-1 in their last 11. From that, it’s safe to say that, at least from recent form, our selection tonight is solid.
Forget what you just saw in game three, meaning, forget that there were 9 goals scored. Each game is its own entity with the last game having very little to do with the next with the exception of a major injury.
Despite the avalanche of offense in game three when you analyze both teams defensively it leaves you with very little choice to not think ‘under’ first.
The Ducks are struggling through a few injuries to defensemen Kevin Bieksa and Simon Despres but let's not overlook the fact that they'll get a much stronger effort from Sami Vatanen now that he has a game under his belt. Vatanen hasn't played since game one in the first round against Calgary.
On the other hand, Oilers don’t get enough credit for their defensive depth, a unit that finished 8th in goals allowed this season(2.52). If you take out the six given up to Anaheim, Edmonton has given up just 2.25 goals per game.
There is some pressure on Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson who were a combined -3 with only three shots total in game three. I anticipate a better effort in their own end while getting more involved offensively.
For your NHL picks today, expect the healthy Oilers defensive core to rebound as both teams keep this game under the 'total'.