Your Super Bowl Picks will Beat the Books with these Line Shopping Tips

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, January 28, 2015 2:36 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2015 2:36 PM UTC

Most of the movement for the point spread on Super Bowl XLIX has been on the Patriots, so much so that the AFC representatives have become slight odds favorites over the NFC’s Seahawks. 

Point Spread For Big Game Has Consistently Moved on Patriots Money So Far
With Super Bowl XLIX  now less than a week away, now is the ideal time to look at all of the point spreads from here in Las Vegas, in Europe and at offshore sports books for the NFL championship game from the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona this Sunday (NBC, 6:30 p.m./3:30 p.m. ET) to see if there are any glaring holes or any decent perceived betting opportunities. There are basically five different numbers currently (Monday morning) available now for The Big Game between the AFC’s New England Patriots and QB Tom Brady and the defending champions and NFC’s Seattle Seahawks—the two teams most expected to get to the Super Bowl all season.

Only Bodog sports books seems to be offering the Patriots at -2 (-105, Seahawks +2 -115). So if you have an account here and are interested in taking the now-underdog Seahawks at +2 (-115), this is the place. A similar reality occurred in last year’s Super Bowl where eventual winner Seattle also ended up being a very small underdog (+2) at kickoff. The Seahawks ended up throttling the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning in that game, 43-8, thus making the point spread look like an expired coupon or something.

Just a handful of sports books have this Super Bowl currently lined at Patriots -1½ at the present time.

The most common current line among all of these sports books is the Patriots -1, and a number of different popular establishments have this number currently hung up, including the world-famous Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, MGM Mirage, Station Casinos and Cantor Gaming Technology, all here in Sin City; European books bet365 (Seahawks +1 -115, Patriots -1 -105), Skybet, Bwin, William Hill and Ladbrokes (Seahawks +1 -115, Patriots -1 -105); and, offshore books The Greek (Jamaica) and Heritage (Antigua and Barbuda).

And there are still a number of PKs (Pick ‘Ems) out there for Sunday’s clash, including large and popular offshores Pinnacle (Seattle -107), 5Dimes and BookMaker as well as BetGrande (Costa Rica) and Heritage Sports (Antigua and Barbuda).

UK-based sports book Paddy Power is actually currently offering both the Seahawks at -1 (+100, Patriots +1 -120) or -1½, (+100, Patriots +1½ -137) according to the Oddschecker screen. But why anyone would lay a point for the same price as laying a point-and-a-half is beyond me. This is either a line to possibly try to draw some New England money or possibly a Ghost in the Machine. It’s often hard to tell in 2015 but if you demand New England and a point or a point-and-a-half and don’t mind paying the thicker juice for your bet, then there you go.

For those who might be interested, the Super Bowl XLIX Early Line at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook—released every summer—had moved to the AFC representatives as being 1½-point favorites for this game in early November (11/11)—exactly where it is in most places at this point in time—with the the Super Bowl’s Total (now at 48 in most places) set at 52½ points.

Review the plethora of Super Bowl Props available in the market now.

Game Prediction and Reasoning Behind Backing Underdog Seahawks
With the betting patterns and public’s perceptions almost mirroring the way it was at this time last year—with the people remembering what they saw last and gravitating toward betting the more popular team (the Patriots) with the better QB (Brady)—it seems wiser to continue backing and recommending the team (Seattle) which may actually be better all-around, has the much better defense—hey defenses win championships, right?—and was here last year and is intent on winning back-to-back NFL championships and carving out a little piece of history, as if to say, “Our defense will not be denied and will now have to be remembered.” Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch powers the league #1 Rushing attack (172.6 ypg) and expect Seattle head coach Carroll to try to get star Lynch in that beast-mode early on, both trying to set the tone in this game (and open up his team’s passing game) while attempting to keep the ball out of New England’s hands.

Whether or not the NFL odds of +2 (Bovada, Bodog) will even end up mattering here is another thing, but looking at backing Seattle on the Money Line would not be advised here right now as almost all shops aren’t providing enough value on the + side yet. Maybe an influx of more Patriots money will eventually get it to that end, in which case, taking the Seahawks on the M/L with the small + would then be advised for your NFL pick. But not for big money by any means. I see eventual Seahawks money coming in late (Saturday-Sunday) from the so-called Wise Guys and there is an enormous amount of money on the sidelines now still waiting to be bet on this Super Bowl on Sunday.

Super Bowls are historically overbet and with many casual bettors or even non-regular bettors dipping their feet in the pool, the point spread for this game can often get a little bit out of whack. There are usually much better games to bet on and try to profit from in any given day or any given sports season, but the grandiose and hype of this particular game has turned it into a Brontosaurus and now one has yet figured out how to make a saddle big enough to place on a Brontosaurus or anyone big enough to potentially ride the beast.

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: Seahawks 23 Patriots 20

SUPER BOWL XLIX PICK: Seahawks +2 -115 (Bovada)

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