With Brees & Luck Back, Bet Saints vs. Colts to Go Over 52 With Your NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Thursday, October 22, 2015 7:53 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 7:53 PM UTC

Andrew Luck is back for the Indianapolis Colts – the good Andrew Luck, too. No wonder the highest total on the Week 7 NFL odds board is for the Saints-Colts matchup.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 21: 21-15 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 14-23 Total

That's a bit more like it. The Indianapolis Colts welcomed QB Andrew Luck back into the fold last week against the New England Patriots, and Luck got the job done – for Indy bettors, at least. His late TD strike to Griff Whalen gave the Colts (+8 at home) the matador cover in a 34-27 loss.

Now Luck has a chance to ventilate the New Orleans Saints. They're coming to town this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX), and go figure, there's a total of 52 points on the NFL odds board for this high-octane matchup. People are happily pounding the OVER at a 59-percent clip, too. You can expect that percentage – and maybe that total – to rise this weekend as the public jumps in with its NFL picks.


Touchdown Buffet
Here at the ranch, we normally like the UNDER when the total gets to 52 or higher. We bit the bullet and took UNDER 55 in the Pats-Colts game, only to watch the two teams trade touchdowns all night long. This week, Luck gets to play against the No. 32-ranked defense in the league (No. 32 pass, No. 23 rush), according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders. All three of the Saints' road games have gone OVER this year.

There's a bit of a mismatch on the other side of the field, as well. New Orleans has the No. 9-ranked offense (No. 9 pass, No. 15 rush) through Week 6; like the Colts, the Saints were without Drew Brees earlier this year, and Brees has performed better since returning from his shoulder injury. Indianapolis only ranks No. 21 overall (No. 26 pass, No. 13 rush) on the defensive end. Touchdowns, touchdowns everywhere.


Safety Last
While we're praising the two offenses now that Luck and Brees are (somewhat) healthy, we have to stop shoveling dirt so quickly on the two defenses. Injuries were a big factor early on; CB Keenan Lewis, safety Jairus Byrd and LB Dannell Ellerbe are all back for the Saints, while CB Greg Toler has returned for Indianapolis after missing the first four games with a neck injury.

We're still going to have to take the OVER this week. It's a high total, but with two offenses like this playing under the dome at Lucas Oil Field, and both defenses still trying to get their sea legs, it's worth a very small bet. And we'll definitely recommend getting that small bet in now, before the public comes in and inflates the total even further. Bonus item: The Colts might have to do without safeties Mike Adams (hamstring) and Clayton Geathers (knee) after they missed Thursday's practice. It's a man's life in the National Football League.

NFL Picks: Take OVER 52 (–105) at Pinnacle

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