Wise Week 1 Betting Strategy - Backing Seahawks At Home & Fading Titans On The Road

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 8, 2016 12:53 AM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 8, 2016 12:53 AM UTC

There are some simple automatic straight bet approaches NFL Bettors can take when going into a new season. Let’s look at the NFL teams who have been the best against the number at Home, and those who have been the worst ATS on the Road.


Seahawks Excellent NFL Team To Blindly Back At Home So Far This Decade
The Seattle Seahawks (28-15-1 ATS, 65.1%) have been the most profitable team to blindly back at Home over the last 4 years with oddsmakers weighing the Home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field in the Emerald City to be the strongest in the NFL. And with the Travel and Body Clock realities that all teams have to deal with when playing in Seattle—as we wrote about in an earlier piece here this Summer, Betting Strategies Based on Weather and Latitude—makes trying to win Straight Up (SU) and Against The [Point] Spread (ATS) an extremely challenging thing.

And the three heavyweight nicknamed “P’s”—QB Cam Newton (+650 to win NFL MVP, GTBets) the Carolina Panthers (27-16-1 ATS at Home, 62.8%), QB Aaron Rodgers (+350 to win NFL MVP, GTBets) and the Green Bay Packers (26-16-2 ATS at Home, 61.9%) and QB Tom Brady (+800 to win NFL MVP, GTBets) the New England Patriots (28-18-2 ATS at Home, 60.9%) have all achieved great success at Home with nice Homefield advantages at Bank of America Stadium, historic Lambeau Field and Gillette Stadium, going a combined 81-50-5 ATS (61.8%) at Home in Charlotte, Green Bay and Foxborough respectively over recent seasons and rewarding backers at the betting windows.

And some teams you think would be great to bet against on the Road just haven’t been that bad on the Road according to the numbers crunch, with the Cleveland Browns actually 19-19 ATS over the L5 years on the Road while the Jacksonville Jaguars have been just 1 game under .500 versus the betting number at 18-19-3 ATS (48.67%) since 2011 with the perceived lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers right at the .500 mark over that span Away (20-20 ATS).

Here are the best NFL teams at Home over the L4 season along with the worst NFL teams on the Road ATS over that same time frame from all games played at their Home sites, both in the regular season and in the NFL playoffs.



Fading Titans & Falcons On Road Has Been Wise Strategy Over Last 5 NFL Seasons
Betting against Titans—both at Home and on the Road week-in and week-out has been a profitable strategy for those fading the perennial doormat of the AFC South. Titans (15-23-2 ATS on Road L5 Seasons, 39.5%) have been the best road team to fade in the NFL over the L5 seasons, winning 60.5% of the time over than span for those betting against Tennessee and hitting a sweet 75% (4-12 ATS in 2014, 2015) the L2 seasons if you faded them.

And Tennessee (18-45 SU L4 seasons) also has some decent go-against streaks in some other specific handicapping categories, including a nasty 15-34-5 ATS mark their L54 Games on grass (30.6%), so new head coach Mike Mularkey (2-7 ATS) rally has his work cut out for him this fall in Music City. A nice Road spot to fade 2nd-year QB Marcus Mariota (50/1 to win NFL MVP, GTBets) and Tennessee (150/1 to win Super Bowl, Betfred) in the NFL Regular Season may be in Week 4 when it travels to Houston to face JJ Watt (50/1 to win NFL MVP, GTBets) and the Texans as the Titans are 0-4 ATS in their L4 vs. their AFC South rivals and 1-5 ATS the L6 at Houston.

Another good team to bet against, after selection your sportsbook, on the Road over the L5 years has been Matt Ryan (50/1 to win NFL MVP, GTBets) and the Atlanta Falcons who have gone exactly 3-5 ATS on the Road the L3 Regular Seasons and a good spot on the schedule in which to plug in this automatic road fade against the Falcons (66/1 to win Super Bowl, Stan James) comes in Week 16 when Atlanta heads to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to face the Panthers in what could be a pretty big NFC South game on Christmas Eve (Dec. 24). The Falcons are just 2-6 ATS the L8 against Carolina heading into his season and Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its L4 trips over to the Tar Heel State, getting shut out, 38-0 as 9-point Underdogs in Week 14 last season (45) by the eventual NFC champions.


NFL Week 1 Home-Cat Pick: Seahawks -10.5 -103 over Miami Dolphins at Pinnacle
NFL Week 1 Road-Rat Fade: Ravens -164 over Buffalo Bills at Heritage
NFL Preseason Picks Record To Date: 3-3-0


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