Win Totals Look Conservative For Saints Due To Inconsistency

New Orleans Saints

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, July 12, 2016 8:24 PM GMT

NO Saints look to turn around a disastrous 2015. We rundown the NFL schedule and serve up game-by-game NFL picks with a view towards the 6.5 season win total hanging across NFL betting markets.

New Orleans Saints 2015 Look Back
The New Orleans Saints are coming off back-to-back 7-9 SU seasons, putting Drew Brees and Sean Payton under the cosh in 2016. Another season under .500 would usher in wholesale changes, surely. To put it simply, the Saints must get it together this season.

Given their inconsistent form over the last few seasons, sportsbooks roll out a rather conservative NFL betting outlook in projected season win totals, but one that varies from sportsbook to sportsbook so NFL bettors must shop around for the best NFL lines depending on which way their leaning with their NFL picks.

Some books hang the Saints on a 6.5 projected season win total with the OVER trading at -140 NFL odds and the UNDER trading at +110 NFL odds, a season outlook currently trading with bet365. Other sportsbooks hang the Saints on a 7.0 projected season win total with the OVER matched at -105 and the UNDER 7 trading at slightly favored -125 NFL odds, a season outlook currently available with Bodog.

Clearly, opinion is mixed about the Saints at sports betting exchanges and, as well, in NFL betting circles. The main charge against the Saints that forces most prognosticators to consider another so-so season is the defense. It’s not looking all that improved, which is a bit of a worry considering the Saints have received the fourth toughest NFL schedule in 2016. Put against the 23rd toughest NFL schedule in 2014 and the fourth easiest NFL schedule in 2015, both terms in which the Saints only mustered up just a 7-9 SU record, it’s not hard to see why the NFL betting outlook is so underwhelming.

Consider the Saints have Drew Brees, an elite quarterback that is capable of beating any team on a good day, and the NFC South is still a largely developing field, there might be room for optimism. Perhaps, the Saints could potentially defy this negative outlook. Put it this way, if the Saints crack the 7.0 win total would anybody be really that surprised?

Here we break down the NFL schedule and serve up game-by-game predictions and NFL picks for the New Orleans Saints. These are early predictions so take with a pinch of salt. A lot can happen in training camp and the lead up to the season that could have a major impact on how the Saints actually perform.

 

Week 1 vs. Oakland, Sunday, September 11
Granted there’s a lot to like about the Oakland Raiders, a young team with a steadily improving quarterback in Derek Carr, a rising star receiver Amari Cooper and formidable pass-rusher Khalil Malik. However, the Saints will be at home in week 1 of the NFL betting and this season is particularly special for the Saints as it marks 10 years since Hurricane Katrina. On one hand, this could be a game in which the Saints fall short of expectations against a rising team. But we’re giving it to the Saints on our NFL picks on account of home advantage and what is sure to be an emotional and electric atmosphere at the Superdome.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 1-0

 

Week 2 vs. NY Giants (away), Sunday, September 18
Last term the Giants and Saints served up a 52-49 shootout which the Saints won at the Superdome. Drew Brees went for over 500 yards in that game and 7 TDs. Giants have the home field advantage this time around and although they’re under new coaching it’s still a familiar face in Ben McAdoo, who was the offensive coordinator last year and will well remember the stinging loss in New Orleans. The Giants get one back over the Saints.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 1-1

 

Week 3 vs. Atlanta, Monday, September 26
Monday Night Football features the highly charged NFC South rivalry between Atlanta and New Orleans. Should be a good matchup if it lives up to its billing. The Saints swept the series with the Falcons last season winning 31-21 at the Superdome in week 6 NFL betting, which marked Atlanta’s first loss of the season under new coach Dan Quinn. They closed the season with a 20-17 win over the Falcons on the road as well, marking a back-to-back winning streak that lifted the Saints to a 7-9 SU finish.  In fact, this game marks the exact 10 year anniversary of the Saints return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina in 2006. The Saints should win this game for their diehard fans.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 2-1

 

Week 4 vs. San Diego (away), Sunday, October 2
The San Diego Chargers are coming off a disappointing 4-12 SU season, so the Saints could well fancy their chances even though they’ll be playing on the road. On a personal note, Drew Brees returns to San Diego for the first time since moving to New Orleans in 2006. It’s a slightly shorter week, but the Saints could potentially surprise the Chargers on the road especially if it turns into a shootout between Philip Rivers and Drew Brees.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 3-1

 

Week 5 BYE

 

Week 6 vs. Carolina, Sunday, October 16
The Saints will have a bye week to prepare for the NFC South champions Carolina Panthers. Last season, the Panthers swept the Saints winning 27-22 at the Bank of America and 41-38 at the Superdome. The former saw Drew Brees on the side lines and McCown in relief duty, though. It’s hard to imagine the Panthers repeating what they did last season behind a 15-1 SU mark. Drew Brees and the Saints could win a close one at home.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 4-1

 

Week 7 vs. Kansas City (away), Sunday, October 23
The Arrowhead is a tough place to play and the Chiefs are coming off a stellar 2015 season in which they finished on a 10-game winning streak to move into the playoffs. The Saints will be hard pressed to clinch the road win against a sound team with a top-notch defense.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 4-2

 

Week 8 vs. Seattle, Sunday, October 30
Seattle Seahawks descend on the Superdome, boasting one of the league’s best defenses in recent memory. Popular opinion typically sways towards the Seahawks, particularly when teams don’t stack up well enough on the defensive side of the ball. However, this could be a trap game for the Seahawks. They’ll be coming off a Sunday Night Football clash with divisional rivals Arizona Cardinals on the away, a tough road game to follow-up with a second straight road game. The Saints could surprise here.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 5-2

 

Week 9 vs. San Francisco (away), Sunday, November 6
A trip to San Francisco used to be a tough road trip for any team. That was when Jim Harbaugh was coaching of course. Now, with Chip Kelly at the helm and the Niners in flux, there are many NFL bettors writing off the Niners. We still don’t know what the Niners will look like under Kelly, Experiment 2.0. Who the quarterback will be even. Tough to predict this one at this early point in time, but it’s a road trip for the Saints and a date with a second straight NFC West opponent. The Saints are known to be inconsistent on the road, so this one could be a trap game for Sean Payton and Drew Brees.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-3

 

Week 10 vs. Denver, Sunday, November 13
Super Bowl champions Denver Broncos descend on the Superdome in week 10 of the NFL betting season sans Peyton Manning. The Saints will fancy their chances but the Broncos defense could prove too much for Drew Brees and his O-line.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-4

 

Week 11 vs. Carolina (away), Thursday, November 17
Following Denver’s visit to the Superdome, it’s a short week and a date with Carolina on Thursday Night Football betting. This is a tough one to call for the Saints.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-5

 

Week 12 vs. Los Angeles, Sunday, November 27
The Los Angeles Rams descend on the New Orleans Saints in week 12 NFL betting. Will we see the No.1 NFL draft pick Jared Goff ply his wares at the Superdome and Todd Gurley running riot over the Saints? Possibly. However, this is a largely inexperienced team led by a rookie most likely and still in the developing stages. Home advantage and the experience of Drew Brees should trump the Rams and all they bring, including a tough defense.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 6-5

 

Week 13 vs. Detroit, Sunday, December 4
The Detroit Lions are a tough side to predict this season without Calvin Johnson. They still figure to be a good team with Matthew Stafford and a decent defense, but a road trip to the Superdome is a tough ask for the Lions.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 7-5

 

Week 14 vs. Tampa Bay (away), Sunday, December 11
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers stunned the Saints in week 2 NFL betting last season and won at the Superdome 26-19. Although Jameis Winston will be in his second year in the NFL and the better for it, the Bucs have a new coach this year so who knows where they’ll really be in the context of the NFL by week 14. Besides, Drew Bress will want to set the record straight here and get the road win. Last term, the Saints won in Tampa down the stretch. They’ll make it two in a row.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 8-5

 

Week 15 vs. Arizona (away), Sunday, December 18
A date with Arizona Cardinals on the road is a tough ask for any team, let alone one that has been inconsistent over the last few seasons. Colour the world shocked if the Saints get the road win here. We don’t see it happening. Could be a tough night for the Saints

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 8-6

 

Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay, Saturday, December 24
Last season, the Bucs split the series with the Saints. This term they meet twice in the space of three weeks. Drew Brees lost to Jameis Winston in week 2 at the Superdome. He gets his back in week 16 of the NFL betting season.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 9-6

 

Week 17 vs. Atlanta (away), Sunday, January 1
A date with the Atlanta Falcons to close the season could go either way depending on how the NFC South stacks up in the final week of the NFL betting season. It’s a right tossup between this pair at this point in time. It would be even more so if the pair were in a battle for an NFC playoff spot. As it is, we’re giving it to the hosts on our NFL picks seeing as they have home advantage. That being said, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints take it on the road as they did last year.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 9-7

 

NFL Season Win Total Predictions: As you can see, we have the Saints finishing positively with either a 9-7 or 10-6 record on the season. Granted it's an optimistic outlook by all accounts given their recent seasons, but this is a significant year for the New Orleans franchise, marking ten years on from Hurricane Katrina. Often such events can be the catalyst for turnarounds that few expect but not few can foresee. Let’s face it, we’re talking about clinching just two wins more (at the very least) than they did in the last two seasons. Drew Brees has to be good for that, surely.

In any event, the season win totals trading on the Saints have them hovering at 6.5 with most sportsbooks, which is a bet worth tickling on your NFL picks at -140 NFL odds. Put it this way, it covers the Saints if they finish yet again with a 7-9 SU record. Not to mention serves up a winning NFL pick for you by season end. For those that are buying the idea the Saints will turnaround this season massively, perhaps the higher season win total of 7.0 currently trading at Bodog as well as several other sports betting outlets is more up your street. The NFL odds certainly proved better profit at -105 NFL odds. Once again, a 7-9 SU season by the Saints – should they fall short of our expectations – would not result in a losing bet but a push and your stake will be returned. On the plus side, should they crack that total, your profit ratio (investment vs. return) is much better.

NFL Picks: Over 6.5 at -140