Win Big With our Updated Odds Analysis & Free NFL Picks for Week 8

Kevin Stott

Thursday, October 29, 2015 3:02 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 3:02 PM UTC

Week 8 of the NFL Regular Season kicks on Thursday night with the Dolphins vs. the Patriots. Let’s review all the latest betting odds and provide the strong NFL picks on this week's favorites.

Thursday, October 29, 2015
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots -7½
51 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, NFL Network, Directv 212; 8:25 p.m. EDT/5:25 p.m. PDT): The Advanced Line and NFL odds for this Thursday Night Football matchup here were (Patriots minus) -10½ while the Patriots opened 9½-point favorites in the NFL Games of the Year number out this Summer at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Las Vegas and other sportsbooks, so you can see what the Dolphins big win over the lowly Houston Texans in Miami Gardens did on Sunday in the mind of oddsmakers for this primetime AFC East meeting from Foxboro Stadium at Gillette Stadium (Mostly Cloudy, 20% chance of Light Showers Early, 60°) between New England (6-0 SU, 3-1-2 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (70-48-5 ATS at Home) and the Miami Dolphins (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS). When these two played last season, the Patriots won and covered as 9-point chalks in this game at Home, 41-13, while in Week 1 in Miami last year, the Dolphins upset New England, 33-20 as 3-point underdogs. The Trends here see the Patriots 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Foxboro (41-13, 27-17, 28-0) and with New England Head Coach Bill Belichick knowing the importance of Home-field advantage in the Postseason, expect a double-digit win and another big performance from the hosts and the NFL’s most reliable player, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (career-high 11 Receptions, 108 yards, TD) on Thursday evening.

New England has scored the most points in the AFC (213), and has only allowed 126 and with this ticking down a ½ point at the SuperBook (Wednesday night) on some Dolphins money, taking the better team—and best team in the NFL—at Home against a divisional opponent and getting it at this lowest price is the prescription. Brady vs. Tannehill will always go Brady’s way, as will Patriots vs. Dolphins, as long as Major Tom is in the saddle. It’s nice that Dan Campbell has seemingly turned the Fish around in his first two games replacing Joe Philbin as Head Coach, but please look at who Miami has played in Weeks 1-7 (Redskins, Jaguars, Bills, Jets, Open Date, Titans, Texans), and then tell yourself they’re ready for the back half of the Regular Season schedule (Patriots, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, Ravens, Giants, Colts, Patriots). The high posted Total (51) here reveals many points should be scored. Now, thinking Miami will have more than 22 of them and that this team can go into Foxboro, score, and move the ball consistently against an improved Patriots Defense seems overly confident. And New England and Brady moving the ball, picking up yardage and scoring 30 points or more is almost a given, especially at Home, on TV and still (pretending to be?) yanked off about football PSI allegations. Whatever works for motivation. This one could be a blowout.

NFL Free Pick: Patriots -7½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Sunday, November 1, 2015
Arizona Cardinals -4½, 46 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) vs. Cleveland Browns 
(FOX, Directv 707, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Arizona Cardinals (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) and QB Carson Palmer (37-33-3 ATS on Road) head east again, this time to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon to play the Browns (2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) and Josh McCown (Probable) in this suddenly surprisingly interesting inter-conference Week 8 matchup from the Buckeye State, which will be a big game for both sides. The last time these two met, the Cardinals won 20-17 as 6-point favorites in Glendale in 2011, while in the last meeting here in Cleveland, the Browns won 44-6 in 2003 easily covering ATS. Arizona will be coming in off just 5 Day Rest (TWTFS) after defeating the Baltimore Ravens at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale on Monday night after losing to the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 6. Expect Palmer to look for WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Michael Floyd and WR John Brown here and to give the football to RB Chris Johnson as much as possible in Ohio here against Cleveland who looked pretty bad in Sunday’s 24-6 thrashing by the upstart Rams in St. Louis. The Cardinals are #1 in the NFL in Yards Per Play (6.8 ypp, 7.3 ypp L3), while the Browns are #17 (5.5 ypp, 5.3 ypp L3). Arizona is tied for 4th in Yards TO Margin at +5 (15 Takeaways -10 Giveaways), while Cleveland is a woeful #27 at -6 (15 Giveaways - 9 Takeaways). Head Coach Bruce Arians (25-14-1 ATS) has something special going on in the Sonoran Desert, and with the unbeaten Packers in Denver on Sunday against the Broncos, and the unbeaten Panthers hosting the Colts on Monday Night Football-this could be a great week for the Cardinals in terms of getting in the NFC Home-field Advantage race, although Arizona still has two NFC Showdowns with the Seahawks on tap (Week 11, Week 17). Look for Arizona to learn from its Loss at Pittsburgh here and win by around 6-11 against a team with seemingly endless QB issues as your NFL pick for this week. The team allegedly wants backup QB Johnny Manziel’s girlfriend to leave him? Fellas, the Football Field is that way and the season is going on right now.

Free NFL Pick: Cardinals -4½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints -3, 49 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
(FOX, Directv 708, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Superdome in New Orleans is the site of the Week 8 game between the host New Orleans Saints (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) and QB Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and the New York Giants (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS). When these two last met, the G-Men clobbered the Saints, 52-27 as 4-point favorites in 2012 in East Rutherford, while the last meeting here in The Big Easy, New Orleans and future Hall of Famer QB Drew Brees won, 49-24, covering as 7-point chalks in 2011. The Saints are 4-0 ATS (the L4 here at the Superdome) vs. New York NFC, and New Orleans is 3-1 ATS (the L4 overall in this NFC series). The Advanced Line here was Saints -2, so the combination of New Orleans very impressive Win over Indianapolis, and the Giants struggle, but Win, over the Cowboys on Sunday has the Linemakers liking the Saints a little bit more than a couple of weeks ago. Having Brees back and settled in will do that, as he and Head Coach Sean Payton aren’t the types to just give up around Week 4 or Week 5 of the Regular Season. This is an NFC series dominated by the Home team (8-1 ATS L9) and the Favorite (8-1 ATS L9), so backing the Saints here and looking for a (minus) 3 is the call. The hosts have W8 of the L9 meetings here and the Home team has won by 25, 25, 21, 17, 38, 8, 28 and 5 points in those 8 meetings, or a healthy an almost unrealistic average of 20.5 ppg. The Giants average 5.6 yards Per Play (12th) while New York averages 5.4 ypp (18th) while NO is dead even (0) in TO Margin, while the G-Men are a surprising +9 and #1 in the NFL in TO Margin, thanks to 11 Interceptions and games against the mighty Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, and Matt Cassel. New Orleans isn’t quite as bad as its start.

Free NFL Pick: Saints -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Monday, November 2, 2015
Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers -6½, 46½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
ESPN, Directv 206, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): QB Cam Newton (18-16-1 ATS at Home) and the Carolina Panthers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) swing open the doors of Bank of America Stadium to QB Andrew Luck (14-13 ATS on Road) and the Indianapolis Colts (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) next Monday night (Week 8) in what should be a very entertaining affair from the Tar Heel State. In the last meeting between the two, in this infrequent inter-conference series, the Panthers won 27-18 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in 2011, covering as a 3-point favorite while the last time they met here at Bank of America Stadium, the Colts won 37-7 and easily covered ATS as 7-point favorites. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Colts and with TE Greg Olsen, RB James Stewart and WR Ted Ginn (13 receptions, 324 yards, 3 TDs), should have enough to keep Indianapolis off balance here, and this game will be much more important to the Colts and much-maligned Head Coach Chuck Pagano than it will be for unbeaten Carolina. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lined this one at Panthers -2½ in its NFL Games of the Year and the Advanced Line was -3½ so you can see what the Colts ugly Loss to the Saints, combined with Carolina’s nice win over the Panthers on Sunday, did to the number—it raised it a full 3 points. Indianapolis had had OL protection problems, and the Loss to New Orleans at Home in Week 7 revealed much. The Panthers are averaging 5.3 YPP (22nd) while the Colts average 5.4 (19th). Carolina is +4 in TO Margin, while Indianapolis is a pathetic 31st with a -8 as we near the halfway point of the Regular Season.

Free NFL Pick: Panthers -6½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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