Wild Card Weekend Value Plays To Consider For Your NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, January 6, 2016 7:23 PM GMT

After completing the regular season, we move on to the NFL Playoffs, which are a completely different animal than the regular season when breaking down the NFL odds and seeking winners.

I closed the regular season on value plays for NFL picks winning seven of the final eight weeks and my confidence is soaring. But as stated, finding value in the regular season is completely different from the postseason, thus the intention is to find the best possible value, but may not be reflective of what I felt previously this year.

As opposed to the first 17 weeks, I will place in order what I think are the best value plays versus the NFL odds, starting with top one first.

 

Kansas City (-3) Hustles Past Houston
The Texans are a home underdog once again this season to Kansas City, but with much higher stakes. Both these teams had incredible turnarounds, with the Chiefs winning 10 in a row and Houston winning seven of nine to finish the season. Both defenses were remarkable and really clapped down on opposing offenses. Despite their similarities, I believe Kansas City is a good bet to cover and advance. The Chiefs' biggest edge is at the quarterback position with Alex Smith taking on Brian Hoyer. Though he's been a little off of late, Smith is well known for taking care of the pigskin, which is usually the deciding factor in any game, let alone the playoffs. Hoyer is merely Houston's best option under center, having lost the job once here and at other locations and other than receiver DeAndre Hopkins, he does not have many other options. If you like K.C. like I do, know this, the SU winner in Texans' games is a perfect 16-0 ATS this season.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -3

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Washington (-1) Closes Out Green Bay
I know you have or will read Green Bay's playoff experience will be a factor in beating Washington. But I have heard the Packers rhetoric the last two weeks, how they were such a great underdog and favorite again Arizona and Minnesota respectively. If you take Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay at face value, they are not a good football team and scuffling to find answers. Washington at this time is playing better than the Packers in closing 4-0 SU and ATS and QB Kirk Cousins right now is playing better than Rodgers, has more offensive weapons and a stronger and healthier offensive line. Detractors will say the Washington defense is doing the Aerosmith thing, "Livin' on The Edge", with opponents making turnovers, yet when I look up Green Bay, I see eight turnovers in past three contests. Washington by 6.

NFL Pick: Redskins +1

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Chiefs and Texans in Defensive Struggle
I mentioned already how good these defenses have been, so let's look a little further. During Kansas City's 10-game winning streak they have conceded a mere 12.8 points per contest. The strength of the Houston squad this year was supposed to be its defense, but after being nothing special as the Texans started 2-5 and giving up 44 points to Miami on the last Sunday on October, J.J. Watt got his teammates got together and they did not allow a touchdown in five of their remaining nine contests. Both teams do not commit many turnovers and lack multiple playmakers. Though the total has shrunk to 40.5, I have the Chiefs 20-13 and recommended the UNDER.

NFL Pick: Under 40

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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