NFL Parlay Picks for Wild Card Weekend: UPDATED
The lines have shifted on some of our early selections for NFL parlay picks, but there remains plenty of value on the board.
With just six games to choose from this weekend, many bettors will be looking to stack a couple of bets together on a parlay to keep them entertained through the three-day slate.
Here's a look at my top parlay picks for the NFL's Wild Card Weekend (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL Wild Card Weekend Parlay Picks
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Under 44 (-110) ???Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (-110) ????Arizona Cardinals-Los Angeles Rams Over 49.5 (-110) ????
SEE ALSO: NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds, Lines and Picks
NFL Wild Card Weekend Parlay Predictions
Patriots-Bills Under 44 (-110)
The total has actually climbed a half-point to 44, despite the concerns about the weather.
The projected forecast for Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., will be around four degrees and wind gusts could get up to 16 mph.
That's not as dramatic a forecast as the previous meeting in upstate New York, when the AFC East rivals battled 40 mph winds and the Patriots gutted out a 14-10 win in a Week 13 matchup in early December.
As is well-documented, Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones attempted just three passes in that game as New England opted instead to bludgeon Buffalo on the ground with 46 carries for 222 yards.
The stat line of Bills quarterback Josh Allen was also unusual, as he threw for just 145 yards in the loss.
We may not see another 24 combined points, but the weather and the preference for Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to rely on his eighth-ranked run game leads us to lean to the Under.
The Bills and Patriots rank first and second, respectively, in points allowed per game at 17 and 17.8 points per game.
SEE ALSO: Patriots vs. Bills Picks
Chiefs -12.5 (-110)
This line has climbed to -13 at many books, but DraftKings is still offering -12.5 at -110 odds. It's easily the biggest spread of the weekend and the Steelers are the biggest underdog in wild-card round history. And for good reason.
Just three weeks ago, the Chiefs blew out the Steelers 36-10 at Arrowhead in a game in which Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce didn't suit up and Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill had just two catches. Both superstars figure to feature prominently in Sunday's game against a Steelers defense that allows 361.1 total yards per game.
When Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes isn't airing it out to his pass-catchers, the running backs will feast on the league's worst run defense.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is on his last legs and will likely be playing in his last game. He won't be able to keep up offensively. The Steelers have averaged 17.8 points over their last four games.
History hasn't been kind to underdogs of 11 points or more. Double-digit underdogs are 2-8 in the wild-card round, according to Yahoo Sports' Frank Schwab, and the last three wild-card teams favored by at least 11 all covered the spread.
SEE ALSO: Steelers-Chiefs Picks
Cardinals-Rams Over 49.5 (-110)
The total has a come down a half-point from earlier in the week, which is beneficial to us Over bettors.
Injury concerns likely play a role in the projection of fewer points. The Cardinals will again be without star wideout DeAndre Hopkins and running back James Conner will be a game-time decision due to a ribs injury.
On the other sideline, the Rams pulled 37-year-old safety Eric Weddle out of retirement for the game. Do you know how desperate you have to be to summon a defensive back who hasn't played a game since late 2019? The Rams might be without both their starting safeties as Jordan Fuller has already been ruled out with an ankle injury and Taylor Rapp is in the concussion protocol.
The Cardinals' offense has struggled mightily in the four games without Hopkins, and the three-time All-Pro played a prominent role in the two prior matchups this season that both finished Over.
However, with those notable holes in the back end of the Rams' secondary, Cards QB Kyler Murray should be able to score enough points.
The Over cashed in four of the last five meetings between these NFC West foes.
SEE ALSO: Cardinals vs. Rams Picks
Combined Odds: Patriots-Bills Under 44 (-110) + Chiefs -12.5 (-110) + Cardinals-Rams Over 49.5 (-110) = +595
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
NFL parlay picks made 1/14/2022 at 12:54 a.m. ET