Where the Sharps are Unloading NFL Picks in Week 10

Jason Lake

Monday, November 3, 2014 7:30 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 7:30 PM UTC

Betting on the NFL has gotten off to a slow start in Week 10, but the sharps aren’t waiting to add the Kansas City Chiefs to their football picks. And it’s all-systems-go for Broncos and the 'over.'

Jason’s record after Week 8: 24-33 ATS, 9-12-1 Totals

Profit: minus-29.93 units

Maybe it’s because the end of Daylight Saving Time (sadly, not a permanent end) has torn an hour out of our Sunday betting, or maybe it’s just the November blahs, but there isn’t much action on the NFL odds board as we go to press. Outstanding. That gives us even more opportunity to jump in and grab those NFL odds while they’re still soft – just like the sharps do.

Now we just have to figure out where the sharps are betting. Again, we don’t have a lot of consensus data as we go to press, but we have two Week 10 matchups where the sharps have weighed in emphatically. Let’s go straight to Ralph Wilson Stadium for our first contest, where the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point underdogs.


The Jet Set
If this game had taken place in Week 2, the sharps probably would have been all over Buffalo. Instead, it’s Kansas City pulling in 95 percent of the early bets at –120, and we’re seeing 100 percent support for the OVER on the posted total of 42.5 points. Easy to see why the Chiefs (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) are on top here: They’re perfect in three games since taking the bye in Week 6. Their latest victory was Sunday’s 24-10 final against the New York Jets (+9.5 away).

The Bills (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) are also coming off a 43-23 win over the Jets (–3 at home). Buffalo had the bye in Week 9, and good thing, too, because the Bills are hurting right now with tailbacks C.J. Spiller (shoulder) and Fred Jackson (groin) both on the shelf. There’s a chance that Jackson could return in Week 10, but Spiller is on injured reserve and can’t play again until Week 16 at the earliest.

As for the total, it’s standard issue these days for sharps to pound the OVER at the open. In addition to the league-wide increase in scoring, you can generally expect casual fans to join the parade and overbet the OVER before Sunday’s kick-off (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). That’s a nice, low total of 42.5 points – for now. One caveat: It’s expected to snow in Buffalo this weekend. Of course it is.


Formula 4-4
This just in, hot off the presses: The New Orleans Saints (4-4 SU and ATS) are drawing 65 percent support as 3.5-point home favorites against the San Francisco 49ers (4-4 SU and ATS). That’s right, folks, the sharps have gone bananas for New Orleans with their NFL picks. It’s okay, though – the Saints have won back-to-back games, and they’ll be playing on extra rest, while San Francisco is coming off a mind-boggling 13-10 loss to the St. Louis Rams (+10.5 away).

Despite that low score, we’re seeing another 100 percent consensus on the OVER for Sunday’s contest (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). We’ve also got unanimous consensus on the total for the late afternoon start (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders. These are two more games where you are virtually guaranteed (virtually) to see the public overbet the OVER this weekend, so if you’re on board, get these totals while they’re still relatively low. The Niners-Saints game has a total of 48; Denver-Oakland is an even 50 as we go to press.

Last, and very much least, we have the Atlanta Falcons (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) pulling in 64 percent support as a pick ‘em against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) on Sunday – this is a 1:00 p.m. ET start on FOX. You might remember what happened the last time these two teams met: Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 56-14 in Week 3. The sharps don’t seem too concerned that Atlanta is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since then. It is the Bucs, after all.

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