What the Bookies Missed – Best Underdog NFL Week 5 Picks

Tennessee Titans players making entrance to the field

Saturday, October 8, 2016 8:27 PM GMT

Every week it’s not uncommon to come across NFL odds that make us go hmmm… Here we look at a couple of those which happen to be a couple of underdogs and serve up the best bets for week 5 accordingly.

 

Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins

The Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins are both 1-3 SU going into week 4; you could say very little separates them by the record on the season. Taking it a step further, they are both 1-3 ATS as well, with the Titans boasting a -5.5-point losing margin on average and a -2.0 differential versus the spread while the Dolphins boast a 4.5-point losing margin on average and a -1.1-point differential versus the spread. Still, very little separation exists between these two outfits by the stats. Yet, the Dolphins are trading as the -3.5 home chalk for their week 5 clash, a rather favourable outlook all things being considered.

Easily the Dolphins could have been 0-4 SU going into week 5. They got rather lucky against the Browns with three missed kicks by new kicker Cody Parkey, one of which came in the dying seconds of the game denied the Browns the win they so richly deserved. Sometimes it’s the way the ball rolls. Why is this important? Well, the dodged bullet can’t have escaped the Dolphins. It also begs the question how confident are the Dolphins in their game right now? They followed up the fortunate win with a loss to the Bengals on the road in Thursday Night Football, a side that was struggling too despite being considered the better team.

What was most concerning about that last defeat was the absence of any offensive intent from Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins. A touchdown at the start of the game was all the contribution the unit made. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the -3.5 NFL betting line currently trading. The Titans may not have figured out how to convert their smash-talking football into wins, but they must fancy their chances of keeping this game close. The Dolphins hardly loom larger than life. Might be enough reason to consider shading the Titans on your week 5 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Picks: Titans +3.5 (-110) 
Best Line Offered: 
at SportsInteraction

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 Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are so spectacularly underwhelming this season that it’s a wonder they are favoured at -5 on the NFL odds board. Granted bookies opened with -4.5 but the line was bet up to -5 by the weekend. Even with Andrew Luck firing at all cylinders the Colts can’t seem to win games convincingly. That has everything to do with the sum total of the team – a secondary that can’t protect its organisation’s prized quarterback and the defense that is porous.

Ok, so the Bears hardly strike a convincing pose with a 1-3 SU record, identical to the Colts on the season. The Colts are 1-3 ATS with a -4.2-point losing margin and a -3.5 differential versus the spread. The Bears are 1-3 ATS with a -8.8-point losing margin and a -5.8-point differential versus the spread. The latter though is largely down to the production of Jay Cutler under centre. Last week, in the veteran’s first start, he led the Bears to their first win at Soldier field in forever, defeating the Detroit Lions 17-14 all while covering as the +3 underdogs. That means with Hoyer, the Bears are 1-0 SU and ATS with a + 3-point winning margin on average and a +6-point differential versus the spread.

Keep in mind, Hoyer beat the very team that handed Andrew Luck and the Colts their first defeat on the season. Not least, Hoyer did spend a season with the Texans and John Fox faced the Colts often during his stint with the Broncos, so the pair have some familiarity with what Luck and Pagano bring to the table. It’s not a lock NFL pick, but one definitely worth considering for your week 5 bets. If Hoyer serves up the win, it’s quite possible he might win the starting job. That’s incentive.

 

Free NFL Picks: Bears +5 (-110) 
Best Line Offered: at Bodog 

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