What Bookies Missed: Best SU, ATS & Total NFL Picks for Week 6

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 17, 2015 7:12 PM GMT

We look at the value plays of the week in this column, from the best SU, ATS and Total pick. Check out which games we’re spotting for your betting thrills.

Best SU Pick: Packers Over Chargers & Patriots Over Colts
We were of two minds for the best SU Pick, tossing between the Packers over the Chargers and the Patriots over the Colts. However, we couldn’t decide which the top pick was so, for the first time, we’re offering up the pair in this category. In terms of consistency on the NFL betting floor, they are practically equal, never more so than this season with both undefeated ahead of week 6 NFL betting.  Both the Packers and Patriots are runaway favorites in week 6, the former as the whopping -550 home fave and the latter as the -380 road favorites on the NFL odds board, or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook.

Of course, winning runs inevitably end. It’s the Law of Averages. However, the Chargers strike a less than convincing pose with a 2-3 SU record, which includes a loss in week 5 to the Steelers at home. Then there is the Packers’ dominance at Lambeau to factor into consideration, transcending which is a tough ask for the Chargers. Where the Patriots are concerned, this is a bit of a revenge match for them, a match in which they are looking for vindication over the Deflate-gate hoopla. Luck may or may not play but that might not make a whole lot of difference. Consider the Patriots are dialled into this rivalry over the last three seasons – Brady has never lost to Andrew Luck. Besides, Luck hasn’t been his best this season and if he does play he’s unlikely to be 100%.

NFL Picks: Packers -550 (5Dimes) and Patriots -375 BetOnline to win SU

 

Best ATS Play: Texans +1.5 to Cover
We’re taking a chance with the NFL pick on this game, a game that technically could go either way. Case-and-point: the NFL betting lines opening on this game were set on EVEN, but they’ve been bet up and down throughout the week from parity to 1.5-points against the spread. In some instances, favouritism oscillated between the pair with the Texans emerging as favorites in midweek betting and the Jaguars leapfrogging into the position at later stages. As it is, the Jaguars are the home chalk.   

Both teams are 1-4 SU going into week 6, but the Texans are 1-4 ATS with a 7.6-point losing margin while the Jaguars are 2-3 ATS with a 10.4 losing margin. The main reason why the Jaguars are favoured in this game is because they have home advantage. Blake Bortles suffered a shoulder injury and it’s yet not 100% certain he will start. Even if he does start, the question becomes whether he’ll last the full 60 minutes. If he doesn’t the game will fall onto Chad Henne’s shoulders. Where the Texans are concerned, their quarterback drama enters a new chapter in week 6 with Brian Hoyer named the interim starter. It’s a role he’s to occupy for this week alone, unless he can do something spectacular that wins him the position for the foreseeable. All things being considered, we’re leaning towards the Texans to cover with Hoyer as their shot caller, if not win outright.

NFL Picks: Texans +1.5 (-110) bet365

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Best Total Play: Panthers & Seahawks to Cash OVER 40.5
According to Vegas Insider, almost 80% of the money coming down the wire on this game is pounding the UNDER in total NFL betting. We’re fading the public and shading the OVER 40.5 on our NFL picks for several reasons. To begin with it’s a low total that salutes only the defensive prowess of both teams without making allowances for either offense. The Panthers have cashed on the OVER in their last two games (totals of 43 and 40 trading, respectively, all while averaging 32 points scored over those two games. The Seahawks, similarly, cashed on the OVER in their last clash with the Bengals, after their defense came undone in the latter half of the game and allowed the Bengals to hang 27 points on them.

Overall, the Seahawks are scoring an average of 22.2 points per game and the Panthers are scoring an average of 27 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers are conceding 17.5-points per game while the Seahawks are conceding 19.6 points per game. By the numbers, this game could crack the 40-point total in our opinion.

NFL Picks: OVER 40.5 (-110) Bovada

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