What Bookies Missed: Best ATS, SU & Total NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Saturday, September 12, 2015 9:53 PM GMT

Ahead of week 1 NFL betting we attempt to spot the best NFL picks against the spread, SU and in total betting. Check these out before settling on your final bets.

Best ATS Play: Rams To Cover
With several great spread betting options available in week 1 NFL betting we’ve gone back and forth before finally settling on the NFC West clash between the Seahawks and Rams. A bit gutsy, but fortune favors the brave, so they say.

Why? When the Seahawks are matched as the ultimate favourites in Super Bowl 50 betting markets how do we dare bet against them? Well, for several reasons. The Rams beat the Seahawks the last time they collided in St. Louis 28-26, marking one of the biggest upsets last season. And the Legion of Boom might not be as booming this season as it was in the past, which is contrary to what NFL betting experts and oddsmakers would have you believe. Yet a reasonable assumption when they’ve lost several key members, not to mention the defensive coordinator himself Dan Quinn.

While we’ve not seen much of the Rams in the preseason, we figure they’ll be better than their 0-4 SU record last month would suggest. We’re speculating that they played their cards close to their chest and should be much better than that. If you agree with our assessments here, we’ve spotted some great NFL spreads for your betting thrills. The best of which is at Westgate, where bookies are generously offering 4.5-points, up a half-point from the opening 4-point spread that most sportsbooks are still running with at the moment. It comes at a higher price of -115 NFL odds, but it’s a smidgen higher than the -110 NFL odds that most books are offering for the 4-point spread. A moot point.

NFL Picks: Rams +4.5 (-115) Westgate

 

Best SU Play: Packers over Bears
R-E-L-A-X. The Packers aren’t going to lose to the Bears. Put another way: Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to lose to Jay Cutler. That or coach Mike McCarthy might have to eat his bold words, "We will proudly stand as the 95th team in the history of the Green Bay Packers when we kick Chicago's ass!," reportedly said at a Green Bay Chamber of Commerce meeting recently.

Of all the matchups in week 1 NFL betting, this has to be the most straightforward SU bet on your NFL picks. Green Bay are dialled into Chicago, having the Bears’ number in nine of their last ten meetings. It’s also the one of the priciest bets to make in SU betting, obviously. Green Bay Packers are matched as the whopping -330 favorites across most sports betting platforms. The best NFL odds we’ve spotted were with BetOnline at -275. Considering the quality of the Packers and their head-to-head over the Bears, that’s decent value for your money.

NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers -275 to win SU at BetOnline

 

Best Total Play: Eagles and Falcons to Go Over
Most NFL bettors and experts alike have the OVER circled firmly in this game, down to the offensive-minded tactics of both teams. We were treated to Chip Kelly’s high octane Eagles in the preseason and saw enough of the Falcons starters to know they can rack up the points in a hurry. So the only question is which book is offering the best totals in order to place your bets there. Sportsbooks opened with 53.5-points for this game but It was quickly bet up to a high of 56 points across most sports betting platforms. Happily, you can still get a lower total of 55-points at bet365, with NFL odds of -110. Good value for your money if that’s the way your NFL picks lean.

NFL Picks: Over 55 (-110) bet365