Wentz, Goff at Opposite Ends of Rankings for NFC QBs vs. Spread

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, August 8, 2018 3:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2018 3:58 PM UTC

SBR examines the best and worst NFC starting quarterbacks in terms of against-the-spread betting entering the 2018 season. The results might surprise some people.

Below are the top and bottom three first-team NFC quarterbacks entering the 2018 NFL campaign in terms of against-the-spread betting. Players must have attempted more than 10 passes in at least 20 contests for ranking consideration. Results include playoff appearances.

Top Three NFC Quarterbacks ATS

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

ATS Record: 18-11 (62.1 percent)
ATS Margin: 5.1
Avg. Line: -1.4

Wentz takes care of business when the betting market projects the Eagles to win, going 12-5 ATS when kicking off favored or a "pick ‘em" on the NFL odds board. Philly posts 28.8 points per game. In all other contests, Wentz is 6-6 ATS with a 23.4-point average.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

ATS Record: 18-13-1 (58.1 percent)
ATS Margin: 2.1
Avg. Line: -2.5

Head coach Jason Garrett is notoriously bad at covering the spread at Jerry World. Since taking over in November 2010, the Cowboys are 23-38-1 ATS (37.7 percent) at AT&T Stadium. This includes an 8-9 mark with Prescott under center. On the road, the 2016 NFL Rookie of the Year is 10-4-1 ATS, beating the number (-1.8) by a healthy 4.4 points per game.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

ATS Record: 90-67-2 (57.3 percent)
ATS Margin: 1.6
Avg. Line: -4.0

The two-time NFL MVP is a profitable 46-27-2 ATS (63.0 percent) all-time at Lambeau Field. Most of the damage has come against NFC North rivals. Rodgers is 19-6-1 ATS (76.0 percent) in this spot. He’s also 16-6-2 ATS (72.7 percent) in the cold months of December and January in Green Bay.

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Bottom Three NFC Quarterbacks ATS

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

ATS Record: 9-14 (39.1 percent)
ATS Margin: 1.0
Avg. Line: 0.1

Going 0-7 SU and ATS in seven rookie starts in 2016 put Goff in a big hole concerning his betting record. The results were horrid, too. The Rams came up 13.0 points shy a 6.4 average line. The second-year pro rebounded with an 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS mark in 2017, missing one start and making a playoff appearance. The fact remains, the Rams are 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS when underdogs or short-priced favorites of a field goal or less with Goff under center.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

ATS Record: 53-72-3 (42.4 percent)
ATS Margin: -0.5
Avg. Line: 0.3

Matthew Stafford has one of the worst ATS records in NFL history for quarterbacks with more than 50 starts. Why? Partly because the Lions can’t play up to market projections against good teams. Stafford has failed to cover the spread in two-thirds (20-40-2, 33.3 percent) of contests versus an opponent with a winning record.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ATS Record: 20-22-2 (47.6 percent)
ATS Margin: -0.5
Avg. Line: 2.5

In 2017, Winston rated as the second-best QB in the NFL behind Tom Brady (96.6) under pressure with an 84.4 passer rating. It does not translate to covers in the betting market against seasoned pass rushes. Facing off against defenses averaging greater than 2.3 sacks per game the prior season, Winston is 8-16-1 ATS, failing to top a 1.9 average line by 3.4 points per game. The 2015 Pro Bowler is 12-6-1 ATS in all other contests.

Best and Worst AFC Quarterbacks ATS
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