The NFL regular season is officially past the halfway mark as teams enter Week 9. Check out these betting trends and angles to help you handicap the upcoming action.
Since 1989, Weeks 9 and 10 are by far the most profitable to back double-digit road underdogs in the NFL. Combined, they are 53-29-1 ATS (65 percent), covering a +12.3 average line by 4.5 points per game. The Colts fall under this umbrella at the Texans on Sunday, seeing 13 points on the oddsboard. Houston was just a 3-point favorite in advanced lines prior to the regular season. The emergence of the Texans rookie Deshaun Watson under center and Andrew Luck’s absence for Indy is helping fuel the difference. But is it too much? Use caution if considering laying the points here. For what it is worth, this is the first AFC South divisional clash since 2014 with a double-digit spread. Underdogs are 10-6-1 ATS in this situatiion after Week 7.
Winless Trend Redux
Well, like us, if you thought the 49ers couldn’t play any worse than they did in their 40-10 beatdown by the Cowboys in Week 7 last Sunday in Philly, you were wrong. The Eagles hammered winless San Francisco 33-10 as 13-point chalk. Even more reason to back the 0-8 Niners in a pick ‘em this Sunday hosting the Cardinals. We shared last week that NFL teams chasing that elusive first victory present value in the second half of the season. Since 1989, they are 63-42-4 ATS (60 percent) from Week 8 on chasing their first. Winless squads headed into Week 9 are 17-4-1 ATS (9-13 SU) overall, kicking off underdogs in all but one (+8.5 average line).
Falcons to Soar?
The reigning NFC champion Atlanta Falcons are a respectable 4-3 SU, but mired in a four-game losing streak against the spread. The offense, which averaged 34.1 points per game last season, is barely scoring more than half that at 21.9 in 2017. The market has been chasing the drop-off all year, the Falcons overvalued through much of the first half. Look for it to catch up very soon.
Teams losing four in a row or more to the spread entering Week 9 are 27-15 ATS over the last 28 years. Where the trend is cashing most is with competitive squads where bad luck, a volatile market or something else is fueling the run. Franchises with a winning percentage higher that 33 percent (3 or more wins) are 15-5 ATS in this spot, covering the number (-0.7) by a whopping 7.2 points per game.
Atlanta is catching 2 points at the division-rival Panthers on Sunday. The Falcons enter with one win in their last four contests, kicking off 6-point favorites or more in three. This is Atlanta’s first divisional clash this season. It has won its last five NFC South matchups, covering four.