Steelers vs. Ravens: AFC North Tilt Hard to Fancy But Total Looks Dandy

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, November 1, 2018 2:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018 2:39 PM UTC

Once again there are a few games on this week’s NFL slate that are a coin flip in terms of which side to bet. The AFC North game between the Steelers and Ravens falls into that category. However, I have a serious lean on the total and I’ll tell you why.

Steelers vs. RavensSunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)If You Must Bet: OverBest Line Offered: Bovada

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The NFL odds board is dealing the Ravens as three-point home chalk in the rematch with their divisional rivals from Pittsburgh this week. As you may recall, Baltimore swooped into the Steel City a little over a month ago and flew away with a 26-14 victory. Now they get the final game of the regular season series on their home turf and Joe Flacco will hope to deliver the same performance as he did last time when he torched the Steelers for 363 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

However, the Steelers’ offense has finally rounded into form since that subpar showing on the last day in September, and since then has won three straight and averaged 34 points per game in those victories. Granted, the Ravens’ defense presents a greater challenge than the Falcons, Bengals, or Browns yet the last time these teams met in 2017 there was a total of 77 points scored so it’s not a complete outlier that this will be a more offensive showing than defensive.

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🔥 Smoke 🔥 pic.twitter.com/G1GUuUptYY

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 1, 2018
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It’s tough to say whether the Steelers’ defense is braced enough for the withering assault of another Flacco air show but if so, this could be Ben Roethlisberger’s game to win. There are too many questions in terms of which team is more likely to cover the number which is why we are firmly entrenched in the total as one of our NFL picks this Sunday. Let’s take a look at a few stats trending in the direction of this being a high-octane game with plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

  • Over is 5-0 in Steelers last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Steelers last six games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2 in Ravens last eight games following an ATS loss.
  • Over is 6-2 in Ravens last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 8-3 in Ravens last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Simply put, there are too many offensive weapons on both sides of the ball and let’s also not forget that Baltimore’s defense could set their offense up for some prime real estate if they get to Roethlisberger throughout and push Pittsburgh backward. There are plenty of questions regarding the winner in this one but the over looks like a solid play here. Go over the posted total in the Steelers/Ravens game this Sunday.

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