Week 9 NFL Picks: Game-by-Game Moneyline Betting

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 30, 2014 9:03 PM GMT

Get all your Week 9 NFL picks sorted with our game-by-game betting analysis. We look at money line odds for each and every game on the NFL odds board and serve up our choice SU NFL picks. We've got you covered for all 13 games this week.

Week 8 NFL Betting Recap
After going 11-4-0 over-under and 8-7-0 ATS in our comprehensive week 8 Game-by-Game NFL picks, we went just 7-8-0 SU. Who’d have predicted the Steelers beating the Colts quite so convincingly or Colt McCoy leading the Redskin to a SU win over Dallas Cowboys? It was an interesting week, in many ways – with some veritable score fests, yawns (cough-Seahawks-cough-Panthers-cough) and nutty upsets. Ever the optimists we are, we’re not going to get down on ourselves. After all, we are 25-19-1 in the last three weeks on our SU picks. So, picking up from where we left off, let’s raise the bar this week.
 

Saints -175 vs. Panthers +155
The NFC South battle kicks off week 9 NFL betting, a game in which many NFL bettors entertain high hopes for the Saints seeing how they decimated the Packers so convincingly last week and how Panthers continue to struggle. It was a rousing performance by the Saints, not to mention Drew Brees looked like the star centre he is. And so the Saints hit the road as the firm favourites to win SU at -175 NFL odds.

Needless to say, the one teeny, weenie problem – quite minor really, only the keenest eye for detail would have noticed it – is the boys in black and gold won at the Superdome last week. Given how good the Saints are at home – always have been – it’s somewhat premature to assume they’re back! Lest we’ve forgotten, these are the same black and gold boys that are winless on the road this season (0-4 SU) and, even, winless in the last 11 months. It’s somewhat surprising they are the favourites, even if the Panthers are struggling. It’s possible they would snap that negative trend. But not until it’s proven, backing the Saints on the road doesn’t appear to be the value NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Panthers +155
 

Cardinals vs. Cowboys
The NFL odds on this game are still off the board owing to the uncertainty surrounding Tony Romo’s fitness. Romo suffered a back injury last week and it’s not known whether he’ll start against the Cardinals. As things currently stand, backing the Cardinals seems to be the only sensible thing to do.

NFL Picks: Cardinals
 

Jaguars +450 vs. Bengals -600
In football betting speak, this is as close to a “sure thing” as NFL bettors are going to get on week 9’s NFL slate. Jaguars are 1-7 SU this season and struggling something awful. They can’t seem to buy a win, no matter how hard they try. Their lone win over the Browns looks more and more like a fluke than a potential turnaround. Bengals’ stock value has come down in recent weeks behind questionable performances against the NFL’s heavyweights. In any case, the Jaguars loom as threatening as a kitten. Bengals to win SU is the only NFL pick here.

NFL Picks: Bengals -600
 

Jets +350 vs. Chiefs -450
The New York Jets are on the decline this season, wholly off colour and off form. Their issues at centre have made them the laughing stock in NFL betting circles. Geno Smith is back to hugging a clipboard on the sidelines. Michael Vick is the starter here. As if that is going to make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things, never mind at Arrowhead where the Chiefs have been playing some sublime football recently – the win over the Patriots springs to mind. Chiefs are 4-3 SU on the season with a chance to close the gap on San Diego in the AFC West standings. This is a game they’ll be looking to win SU in a big way.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -450
 

Eagles -125 vs. Texans +105
This is one of the NFL matchups that could go either way, hence the close NFL betting lines. Eagles have lost some of the verve and swagger they started the season on while the Texans continue to produce mixed results. Last week, the Eagles (5-2SU) were unfortunate to lose to the Cardinals after leading in the game. The Texans (4-4SU) enjoyed a virtuoso performance over the Titans – it’s the horrendous Titans though, keep in mind. Putting stock into their respective performances last week isn’t a good idea. In this case, the Texans are returning home from a successful road trip, looking to build a winning streak. As the nominal home dogs, therefore, they appear to be the value NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Texans +105
 

Chargers +120 vs. Dolphins -140
This is another close matchup on the NFL books with the Chargers matched as the minor road pups at +120 and the Dolphins the mere -140 favourites. The NFL betting outlook is reflective of their head-to-head in their last five meetings: Dolphins have the 5-0SU edge. Surprisingly, the Chargers don’t play well in Miami. On the strength of this season, however, the Chargers would appear to be the value NFL pick over the Dolphins simply because the former has been more consistent and convincing through the weeks.

The Chargers are after a 35-21 defeat on Thursday at Mile High, but given that it was the Broncos and prolific Peyton Manning that sent them packing there’s no shame in the defeat. They’ve had a long week to stew over that loss, come to terms with it. Look ahead to the upcoming Dolphins, who struggled against the Jaguars on the road in spite of taking the pivotal win, and put together a game winning plan.

NFL Picks: Chargers +120
 

Buccaneers +230 vs. Browns -280
One of the least appealing games of the weekend’s NFL betting slate is the clash between the Bucs and Browns. Browns (4-3 SU, 3-1home) have played up to their opponents when they’ve needed to, recording even an upset win over the Steelers. They’ve also been consistent for the most part this season against lightweights, save for the hiccup in Jacksonville. Bus are the league’s lightweights this season, 1-6 SU through seven rounds and riding a three-game losing streak. They were disastrous last weekend at home to the Vikings. It’s hard to imagine anything other than a loss for the Bucs here. Take the Browns on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Browns -280
 

Redskins vs. Vikings
Colt McCoy led the Redskins to a shocking win over the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night. Alas, it might be his last start on the season if RGIII returns. Vikings, meanwhile, snuck away from Tampa Bay with a narrow 19-13 win in overtime. This is a complete tossup between two outfits mired in all sorts of problems and undergoing changes. In such cases, backing the home team might prove to be the smart NFL pick. For our money, we’re going with the Redskins on the road against a beatable Vikings at home (1-2SU this season).

NFL Picks: Redskins
 

Rams +375 vs. Niners -500
After the Rams upset the Seattle Seahawks a fortnight ago, they barely struck an audible chord against Kansas City in week 8 NFL betting, going down meekly 34-7 instead. What’s more, the Rams are even more banged up than they were a week ago having most likely lost Quick and Long. The Niners are coming off a bye week, looking to return into the win column. They have home advantage. They are well rested. They are poised to take advantage of the wounded Rams in a divisional clash with post-season implications. Niners are 4-3 SU and second in the table, tied with Seattle. They can’t afford to leak games if they hope to see the playoffs with the NFC West race heating up so.

NFL Picks: Niners -500


Broncos -165 vs. Patriots +145
The marquee clash of the weekend that all and sundry will be tuning into promises to be a highly entertaining affair. Public betting opinion is split down the middle. Undeniably, the Broncos are the team to beat this season – hence they are the road chalk at -165 in this game. But the Patriots have a solid home record, not unlike the Saints. And didn’t New Orleans put paid on the notion of the upset at the Superdome last week with a convincing win over an in-form Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. It’s not a farfetched notion to assume Tom Brady would do the same. In fact, the Patriots do have the edge over the Broncos in recent meetings, having won four of their last five encounters.  Last season, Brady and the Patriots stormed back in the second half, erasing a 24-point lead by the Broncos to clinch the 34-31 overtime win. Needless to say, you can never count out the Patriots at the Foxborough, which makes them a tempting home dog at +145. For our money, we’re going to back the Broncos as the -165 favourites on the road. Peyton Manning looks unstoppable right now and he’s had a long week to prepare for his archrival. Besides, we’ve been burned before when we went against the Broncos on our NFL picks. Won’t be doing that again, anytime soon.

NFL Picks: Broncos -165
 

Raiders +900 vs. Seahawks -1500
Another marquee clash. NOT. While the Seattle Seahawks have lost some of their edge, they’re behind a crucial win over the Panthers last week that put them back into the NFC West race. Before them is a straightforward clash against the Raiders that they should win handily. The NFL betting lines on this game are absurd, for a lack of better description, offering very little angle for profit on the home favourites. Unless you have a crystal ball that’s revealed the unthinkable, an improbable win by the winless Raiders in Seattle – in which case by all means rush to the sports betting exchange and put a wager on the Raiders at their hallucinatory +900 NFL odds – there’s really no value in this game.

NFL Picks: Seahawks -1500
 

Ravens -130 vs. Steelers +110
The script has flipped. The NFL betting outlook on this divisional clash has completely changed since the bookies opened trading early in the week. At the time, the Ravens were the nominal road pups and the Steelers were the solid home favourites. Now it’s the other way around as the NFL lines have moved against the hosts. Clearly, the betting public isn’t buying what the Steelers are selling, despite back-to-back wins (their first winning streak of the season) against the Texans and Colts. Indeed, the virtuoso 51-34 win over the Colts sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets. So much so, it appears they aren’t being given enough credit here. It’s not unusual for a team to experience a hangover after such a big win. What’s more, the Ravens (5-3SU this season) are a team capable of beating the Steelers. The Ravens should have won last week, only to be cruelly denied a touchdown by suspect officiating (in our opinion). They’ll be raring to bounce back against the Steelers and give the Bengals a run for their money atop the AFC North Standings.

NFL Picks: Ravens -130
 

Colts -170 vs. Giants +150
It’s not surprising to find the Colts favoured on the road, despite having lost in such a shocking way to the Steelers last weekend. Colts stock is a cherished commodity in NFL betting circles, bookies aren’t going to do something silly as to just give them away for peanuts. Still, does that mean they are the value NFL pick here at -170 NFL odds? The popular Monday narrative making the rounds: Colts bounce back against the G-men on Monday Night. It has a genuine ring to it, right. More plausible than the alternative: Colts suffer back-to-back defeats as Giants stun Andrew Luck and Company. Betting on games that involve the Giants can be a frustrating exercise because one never knows which G-men are coming to play – those that can play lights out or those that look pedestrian. Just when you give up on them, they shock you with a performance that has you thinking, ‘now why can’t they play like that week-in, week-out?’ It’s a long shot perhaps to back the Giants at the expense of the Colts. But we’re encouraged by the fact that the bookies haven’t written them off entirely – at mere +150 NFL odds they are within the realm of reasonable probability to mastermind the upset.

NFL Picks: Giants +150