Week 9 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 6:45 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2014 6:45 PM UTC

It's time to up my game at the midpoint of the NFL season with my Week 9 picks against the betting odds and deliver winners, after coming off a rare losing week with this article at Sports Book Review.

We are getting to the point of the season where we will see more large favorites, which could provide opportunity in making NFL picks versus the sportsbooks. Here is how I will roll with a pair of Top Underdogs and a False Favorite.


Jaguars vs. Bengals: Jacksonville Stinks but Defense Improving
The Jaguars sit at 1-7 and 2-6 ATS and are well on their way to another brutal campaign. Jacksonville had a real chance to cover against Miami last week but Blake Bortles had two passes intercepted and they were returns as touchdowns, in losing 27-13 as seven-point home underdogs.

Cincinnati earned themselves a clutch victory over Baltimore at home last Sunday, but with a division game with Cleveland next, what type of mental preparation will the Bengals have knowing they are the far better team? While many players don’t follow the NFL odds, they know they are listed as big favorites.

Jacksonville’s defense, especially the front seven, has been playing much better and home favorites like Cincy off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season, are 4-22 ATS in next contest.  

NFL Underdog with Bite – Jacksonville


Raiders vs. Seahawks: Sleepy-Eyed in Seattle
After two losses, sports bettors and NFL football handicappers alike figured Seattle would have a Ginsu knife sharp effort in Carolina and took them from opening -3.5 to -6 at kickoff. Instead, we saw more the same flat-line effort from the Super Bowl champs who had to come from behind late to hold off the Panthers 13-9. If the Seattle was not motivated for that contest, what are the chances they bring their A-Game for the worst team in football? Despite Pete Carroll’s and the other coaches preaching, Seattle players essentially know they can choose the final score against the Raiders 31st ranked scoring and total offense.

Seattle is more than two-touchdown favorite at sportsbooks like 5Dimes, but this where the ugly duckling wager can kick in at this time of the season to stun bettors. With the Seahawks lacking motivation and winless road teams like the Oakland 33-11 ATS after seven or more losses, we have the makings of a false favoritein Seattle.

NFL False Favorite – Seattle


Redskins vs. Vikings: Washington Improving in all Facets
Going to ride the rollercoaster without a seat belt and presume Washington will be an underdog at Minnesota. At press time, sportsbooks were holding off forecasting a number with Robert Griffin III possibly returning or wanting to know if Colt McCoy will get a second chance with the Redskins to start.

It makes less a difference if the Washington offensive line brings the same determination they had in Dallas for opening holes for running backs Alfred Morris or Roy Helu.

The Minnesota offensive line is not considered in the same class as Dallas and rookie Teddy Bridgewater has started just a few games for the Vikings, which should make those Skins blitz packages lethal again. And lastly, Washington’s young cornerbacks are playing with such brazen confidence they will be hard to beat.

Get out the calculator and add these factors together before making your Week 9 NFL picks and the Redskins make it three straight wins and are a terrific live underdog.

NFL Underdog with Bite – Washington

comment here