Week 9 NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Patriots Over-Under Betting

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 7:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2014 7:56 PM UTC

The premier clash on the NFL odds board in week 9 is the clash between the Broncos and Patriots. Odds makers have been hard at work rolling out a whole slew of NFL odds for this must-see clash.

Denver Broncos Over-Under Trends
The Denver Broncos are 5-2-0 in over-under betting this season with an average of 3.4-points that the games go ‘over’ set totals this season. Since Peyton Manning’s record-breaking 2013 season, they are 17-9-0 in over-under NFL betting with an average of 5.9-points per game going ‘over’ set totals.

On the road, the Broncos are just 1-1-0 this season in over-under betting, which is a rather small sample size all thing being considered. What’s more, they boast a rather dubious -0.5-points average margin against the total odds. The sample size includes a 27-20 defeat in overtime in Seattle and

This is only the third road game for the Broncos this season, at the Foxborough where Peyton Manning has struggled on occasion. Last season, the Broncos raced to 24-0 lead in the first half only to frit away the lead and lose 34-31 in overtime. On that fateful day, Peyton Manning went 19-of-36 for 150 yards and two touchdowns and one interception. On the other side of the coin, Tom Brady went 34-of-50 for 344 yards and three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a highly entertaining, back-and-forth game in which Brady erased a 24-point deficit while Peyton Manning heroically forced overtime with a touchdown.


New England Patriots Over-Under Trends
The Patriots are 6-2 in over-under NFL betting this season with an average margin of 5-points per game going ‘over’ set totals. Since 2013, they are 16-10-0 in over-under betting with an average of 2.7-points per game going ‘over’ set totals.

At home this season, the Patriots are 3-1-0 in over-under betting with an average of  5.4-points per game going above set totals. Crucially, since 2013, they are 9-4-0 in over-under betting with an average of 5.2-points per game going above predicated totals, marking the highest winning percentage of 69.2 % for the ‘over’ in the league over that span.


Broncos vs. Patriots Total Trends
Before considering making your Week 9 NFL picks, keep in mind that not only has the total gone ‘over’ in the four of Denver’s last five games but it has also gone ‘over’ in four of the last five games when playing New England. The total has gone over in five of New England’s last five games and in eight of their last nine home games.


Total Odds In NFL Betting Markets 
Odds makers have rolled out a rather high overall total line for this game set to 55-points. Then again, when one considers the high-octane offenses contained within both camps the score seems rather achievable. Broncos have outscored the opposition 224-to-142 while the Patriots have outscored the opposition 238-to-177. All in all, if these offenses produce at the high level they are most certainly capable of, we should see them push the ‘over’ 55-point total at -110. Some sportsbooks are offering a 54.5-point total, which affords NFL bettors a half-point to work with that could prove the difference maker.

In team totals betting, taking the ‘over’ would also appear to be the sharp NFL pick considering the individual output of both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

The Broncos are averaging 32 points per game and conceding 20.2 points per game over even games. In the last four games, however, they’ve improved on both sides of the ball – scoring an average of 37.25 scored and conceding 18.75 per game.

By comparison, the Patriots are averaging 29.75-points per game and conceding 22.12-points per game through eight laps around the league. In the last four games, there has been a perceptible improvement on both sides of the ball with the Patriots scoring with abandon, including the 51-23 win over the Bears in which the Patriots alone pushed above the game total line. Their output includes 39.5-points per game scored and 21.75 points allowed over the last four games.

Indeed, if both the Broncos and Patriots come out firing at all cylinders as bettors and odds makers anticipate; that is, if the NFL odds were any indication. This game should bust every total set across sportsbook platforms in both team totals and game totals.

Free NFL Picks: Over 54.5 (-110); as well, take the over in team totals for both Broncos and Patriots at 5Dimes

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