Week 9 NFL Picks: Bet Chargers ML vs. Bears in High Scoring Game

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 5:01 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 5:01 PM UTC

Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears face Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on Monday Night Football in a Week. Check our NFL pick here.

Odds Overview
Chicago Bears vs. San Diego Chargers [01:30] (FOX, Directv 206, 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST): The Chicago Bears (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) head west to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego to face QB Philip Rivers (41-34-1 ATS at Home) and the Chargers (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) in the Week 9 end-cap on Monday Night Football and yet another primetime TV game which looked so much better earlier this year. NFL odds have made the host Chargers 4-point Road Favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) over the visiting Bears—the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Line on this game was (Charger minus) 4—with the Total Points there posted at 49. The Chargers are -200 Favorites in the Money Line (Winner) marketplace with the underdog Bears lined at +125 (bet365). The San Diego Chargers Total Team Points has been set at 26½ (Ladbrokes) while the Chicago Bears Total Team Points is at 23 (Paddy Power) for this game. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City’s annual NFL Games of the Year odds for this game had the Chargers lined as 10-point favorites so you can see positive perceptions with the Chargers have dropped off with the 2-6 start to the Regular Season. Same Chargers, different season.


Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears (140 PF-202 PA) and First-year Head Coach John Fox are coming off a real tough Loss at Home at Soldier Field on Sunday to the Minnesota Vikings as Blair Walsh banged home a 36-yard FG as time expired for Minnesota in a big Win for its Wild Card hopes. The Bears (500/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) head in here without RB Matt Forte and will have to deal with a 2-Hour (CST to PST) Time difference which should help the host Chargers who need all the help they can get these days. Don’t we all. So Vanderbilt product and Bears starting QB Jay Cutler will have to work around Forte’s absence so he may be throwing the football a lot and with the season teetering and WRs Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson and TE Martellus Bennett, why not? Besides Forte (Knee), Rookie (West Virginia) WR Kevin White (Shin) has been Out Indefinitely and T Jermon Bushrod (Concussion), LB Shea McClellin (Leg) and C Hroniss Grasu (Undisclosed) are listed as Questionable for this game while six other Bears are on the Injured-Reserve List including C Will Montgomery (Leg), WR Jacquizz Rodgers (Arm) and S Ryan Mundy (Hip).


San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers (191 PF-227 PA) 29-26 Loss to the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore last Sunday in Week 8 was a tough pill to swallow as the difference between a 3-4 record and a 2-6 record at this point in Time. For the Chargers, star WR Keenan Allen (67 Receptions, 725 yards, 4 TDs) is out possibly for the season (Injured-Reserve List) with a Kidney injury, so QB Philip Rivers and the Offense lost much but with their record now, it will be make the best of what’s left from here on out this Regular Season. San Diego (275/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) and Rivers still has plenty of options on Offense with RB Melvin Gordon, RB Danny Woodhead, WR Malcom Floyd (21 receptions, 409 yards, 3 TDs) and TE Antonio Gates. On phone book-length the Injury-front for the Bolts, CB Craig Mager (Hamstring), G Orlando Franklin (Knee), LB Manti Te’o (Ankle), S Eric Weddle (Groin), DE Corey Liuget (Foot), T King Dunlap (Ankle), CB Brandon Flowers (Knee) and CB Patrick Robinson (Concussion) are all listed as Questionable while LB Denzel Perryman (Pectoral) is Out Indefinitely. And four Chargers sit on the Injured-Reserve List besides WR Allen now: LB Tourek Williams (Foot), RB Branden Oliver (Toe), G Johnnie Troutman (Arm) and DE Darius Philon (Thigh). This team is limping and thin.


Recent Series Trends and Best Betting Approach
The last time these two teams met in this infrequent, every three-years AFC-NFC series, the Bears won 31-20 at Home at Soldier Field in Chicago, covering ATS as 4-point favorites in 2011 while the last time these two met here in Southern California, the Bolts won 14-3 in Week 1 of the 2007 Regular Season, covering as 7-point chalks. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings in this series and are 11-12 ATS as Road Underdogs on Monday Night Football while San Diego is 4-4 ATS as Home favorites on Thursdays. The Over is 7-2 ATS the L9 Week 9 Bears games overall while the Over is an impressive 19-7 ATS the L26 Chicago games on the Road—a seemingly much stronger Trend and one that plugs in nicely here against a Passing team like the Chargers in a perfect environment (Qualcomm Stadium). Also, the Bears are 2-6 ATS their L8 games in November and their lone Road Win came against the lowly Lions—possibly the worst team in the NFL right now. With the Chargers 1-8 ATS in their L9 Home games, 3-12 ATS in their L15 on Grass and the Bears so bad on the Road lately and far, far away from home, backing the host Chargers at -200 on the Moneyline (bet365) on Monday night seems like a decent low-level approach with an equally sized play on the Over (48 -125, bet365), which is 8-2 the L10 games San Diego has played in Week 9. Chargers QB Rivers—who had a 500-yard Passing game earlier this season—will be throwing from that start as will Cutler and with Chicago having one of the best K’s in the NFL in Robbie Gould, points will be scored when the opportunity arises.

Predicted Final Score: Chargers 27 Bears 26

NFL Picks: Chargers -200 & Over 49 at Heritage

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