Week 9 is officially off to a banging start with the Falcons eviscerating the Bucs in TNF. In this column, we recap all the NFL betting action against the NFL odds for week 9 as the results come in
Falcons 43 vs. Bucs 28
Opening Line: Falcons -2
Closing Line: Falcons -4.5
Consensus Betting: Falcons 62.46%
The Atlanta Falcons improve to a 6-3-0 ATS mark that includes a 5.1 winning margin and + 5.7 differential versus the spread following an impressive 43-28 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Thursday Night Football marking week 9. The game wasn’t even as close as the NFL odds suggested. Falcons opened as the -2 road chalk in early servings ahead of week 8, but following the shootout victory over the Packers last Sunday they reopened as the -3 (-110) road chalk with most offshore sportsbooks. That NFL line didn’t hold for long as early bettors pounded the Falcons and bet up the line to -3 (-120) within hours. Some sportsbooks such as BetOnline went as high as Falcons -3 (-135) while others simply raised the NFL line immediately to -4 (Bookmaker, Bovada and Heritage) to name a few.
Casual NFL betting is typically underscored by knee-jerk reactions, ‘what has a team done lately.’ The Falcons (as mentioned above) defeated the Packers in week 8 while the Bucs succumbed to a loss to the Raiders in overtime. It’s no surprise the Falcons were getting all the love here. Within midweek, the Falcons were found laying as much as -5 with most sportsbooks, simply because the sheer volume of betting coming down the wire was mostly towards the Falcons bookies had to lift the line in tandem. By closing doors, the Falcons finished with 62.46% of tickets taken and a whopping 82.35% of the money. The harmony between tickets taken and amount wagered suggests both the public and sharps were in accord with this matchup. Tale told, both got it right
Steelers 14 vs. Ravens 21
Opening Line: Ravens -2.5
Closing Line: Steelers -3
Consensus Betting: Steelers 59.96%
If there’s one thing the 21-14 loss to the Ravens underscores it’s: Ben Roethlisberger is not Superhuman. When word got out Big Ben would actually start this game the betting public reacted and pounded the Steelers. By closing doors, the NFL line on this game turned on a dime, from an opening line that saw the Ravens laying -2.5 to a closing line that had the Steelers laying -3. According to SBR consensus betting, the Steelers not only closed with 59.96% of the tickets taken, making them one of the top public consensus bets for week 9 NFL picks, they also had the money cornered in their camp (64.40%). That harmony between tickets and money suggests sharps were on side too. Tale told, the Ravens pulled off the 21-14 win to hand the public a loss.
Cowboys 35 vs. Browns 10
Opening Line: Cowboys -7
Closing Line: Cowboys -7
Consensus Betting: Cowboys 58.35%
The Cowboys simply can do no wrong, riding an incredible seven-game winning streak they are the fashionable pick amongst NFL bettors. That proved to be the case in a 35-10 win over the Browns, as the Cowboys closed as the consensus bet with 58.35% of the tickets taken. Shockingly, the sharps were with the hapless Browns to the tune of 68.66%. It’s probably why this NFL betting line didn’t budge at all across sports betting platforms, opening and closing on the key number 7. Who says sharps get it right? A good win for the public it was.
Jaguars 14 vs. Chiefs 19
Opening Line: Chiefs -8
Closing Line: Chiefs -7
Consensus Betting: Jaguars 65.30%
How the Jaguars emerged as the top consensus NFL pick is a bit of a wonder. As it is, the Jaguars slip to a 2-6 SU mark behind their third straight defeat. A 19-14 loss at Arrowhead saw the Jaguars cover as the significant road favourites but left SU bettors hanging nonetheless. This was another game that showed parity between tickets taken and money 65.90%.
Jets 23 vs. Dolphins 27
Opening Line: Dolphins -3
Closing Line: Dolphins -4
Consensus Betting: Dolphins 52.94%
Both the public and sharps were high on the Miami Dolphins for week 9 NFL picks and, in turn, rewarded as the Dolphins held off the Jets to a 27-23 win at home. It was a close game, just as close as the NFL odds suggested it would be and at one point or another it looked like either side could snatch the W. Tale told, the public got it right with a little bit of luck going their way.
Eagles 23 vs. Giants 28
Opening Line: Giants -2
Closing Line: Giants -3
Consensus Betting: Eagles 57.26%
By all accounts, this was the highlight of Sunday’s early action for week 9 NFL betting and it didn’t disappoint. The veritable shootout between Eli Manning and Carson Wentz served up 51 points that cracked the rather low closing 43-point total on the NFL odds board. Alas, the public was found on the wrong side of the coin as the Eagles succumbed to the loss. Sharps got it right though. The Giants had 51.31% of the money wagered by closing doors thanks to some large bets coming down the wire. Indeed, this was a game that featured a reverse line movement: despite Eagles emerging with 57.265 of tickets taken the NFL line moved in favour of the Giants, an indication of sharp betting if ever there is one.
Lions 22 vs. Vikings 16
Opening Line: Vikings -7
Closing Line: Vikings -5.5
Consensus Betting: Lions 50.93%
Inasmuch as the Raiders and Cowboys are the fashionable NFL pick, the Lions are emerging as such from week to week. At closing doors, the Lions had the slight edge in consensus betting with 50.93% of tickets taken but also a whopping 80.92% of the money. The sheer volume of money forced bookies to drop the NFL line from Vikings laying -7 to a closing -5.5. Tale told, it was a victory for public and sharp bettors who were clearly in accord in this game.
Panthers 13 vs. Rams 10
Opening Line: Panthers -2
Closing Line: Panthers -3
Consensus Betting: Panthers 61.38%
Saints 41 vs. Niners 23
Opening Line: Saints -3
Closing Line: Saints -5.5
Consensus Betting: Saints 62.46%
The Saints closed as the top consensus bet with several top-rated sportsbooks according to SBR Consensus betting polls but, by closing doors the money was firmly with the Niners to the tune of 70.92%. As the public bet up the Saints from -3 to -5.5 (in some cases even higher), it triggered buy back on the Niners. When all was said and done, the Saints won and covered with plenty to spare. In fact, they were amongst the largest closing favourites to come through for bettors on week 9 NFL picks.
Titans 35 vs. Chargers 43
Opening Line: Chargers -5
Closing Line: Chargers -4.5
Consensus Betting: Chargers 58.14%
The San Diego Chargers closed with 58.14% of the tickets taken but just 33.70% of the money. The public and sharps were at odds for this game, which is why the NFL line moved towards the Titans in the end and closed with the Chargers laying -4.5 or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook. In this instance of public vs. sharps, the former got the right end of the stick yet again.
Colts 31 vs. Packers 26
Opening Line: Packers -6.5
Closing Line: Packers -7.5
Consensus Betting: Packers 62.95%
Across the board the Packers emerged as the consensus bet with 62.95% of the tickets taken and 60.64% of the money. Sharps and public bettors were in accord here, both getting burned in the end as the Colts delivered the shocking 31-26 upset at Lambeau. What a win for bookies it was.
Broncos 20 vs. Raiders 30
Opening Line: PK
Closing Line: PK
Consensus Betting: Broncos 60.25%
It wasn’t even as close as the NFL odds would have it. The AFC West showdown with top spot on the line opened and closed on a PK line with largely even keeled betting on both sides of the coin during the week. At closing doors, the Broncos emerged with 60.25% of tickets taken and 65.90% of the money. Once again, the public and sharps were largely in accord as twice as large of bets on the Raiders were placed on the Broncos. In the end, the Raiders stunned the defending Super Bowl champions 30-20 at the Coliseum, giving NFL bettors much to ponder in the coming weeks and, crucially, probably a really good win for bookies on Sunday Night Football. What was the most bet game of the week at most online shopping venues.