For our Week 8 NFL trends and angles to consider, we explore taking points with winless teams, backing squads shut out the previous week, and uncover a fade situation regarding head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs.
The Browns and 49ers are both winless through seven games. This is bad news for fans of these franchises as playoff chances are virtually nil, but potentially good for bettors. It’s time to start taking the points with each. Since 1989, winless teams headed into Week 8 are 58-36-4 ATS (62 percent) as underdogs while seeking that elusive first victory. The Browns are catching 9.5 points versus the Vikings in London, while 49ers are 12.5-point pups at the Eagles this Sunday.
Both dogs might be good plays this weekend. Winless teams playing an opponent with a winning record are 37-13-1 ATS (74 percent) getting points in this spot. The Eagles sport the NFL’s best record at 6-1 following a 34-24 win over the Redskins on Monday night. The Vikings, meanwhile, are 5-2 and leading the NFC North.
Also, expect a bounce-back effort from San Francisco. The Cowboys routed the Niners 40-10 last week as 6.5-point chalk. San Francisco cannot play any worse, particularly on defense where it allowed 501 total yards. Winless teams coming off a game in which they fell to the number by more than four touchdowns are 8-1-2 ATS next time out in this situation.
Andy Reid Trouble Spot
After jumping out to a league-best 5-0 record, the Chiefs have dropped two straight to the Steelers (19-13) and Raiders (31-30). The team has lost three games in a row just three times since Reid took over head coaching duties in 2013. It may be in danger of making it a fourth, despite laying 7.5 points to the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Including his long tenure with the Eagles, Reid is 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS at home against division opponents when on a losing streak of one or two games. Five times his teams have kicked off as 4-point chalk or more, and they are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS overall.
Goose Eggs to Golden Eggs?
Bettors witnessed a trio of teams lay a goose egg in Week 7:,Broncos at the Chargers (21-0), Colts at Jaguars (27-0), and Cardinals vs. Rams (33-0) in London. Since 1989, this has happened just six other times during the regular season. There have never been four shutouts or more in this span.
Teams going scoreless in Week 7 are 10-3 ATS in Week 8. For an angle with a little more meat on the bone, consider this: road teams coming off zero points vs. a defense that allowed 10 or more the previous week are 40-18 ATS since 1990. The trend proves even stronger in the second half of the season, going 27-9 from Week 8 on. The Broncos (+7.5) and the Colts (+10.5) fall under this umbrella this week at the Chiefs and Bengals, respectively. The Cardinals are on bye, but travel to San Francisco in Week 9. They were 3.5-point favorites in advanced lines, but this number could dip to dog status depending on what the Niners do in Philadelphia and Cards QB Carson Palmer out with injury. Monitor updated lines for every NFL game on the SBR Odds page.