Week 8 NFL Trends to Beat the Books: Go Ahead, Make My Day!

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 23, 2018 1:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018 1:56 PM UTC

Need help with your Week 8 NFL picks and predictions? Well, do ya punk? We got you covered with these against-the-spread and over-under betting trends and situations. Dirty Harry approved. 

Go Ahead, Make My Day

Until this trend decides to turn around, we’re going to keep backing and cashing. Since the start of last season, teams coming off a home game in which they threw for more than 315 passing yards are an abysmal 16-41-4 ATS (28.1 percent) next time out. The Bears (-7), Buccaneers (4.5), Chiefs (-10), and Packers (9) fall under this situation Sunday.

Defense Wins on Neutral Soil

Teams allowing fewer points than their opponents in the previous week before a rare NFL neutral-soil encounter are 32-16-1 SU and 30-18-1 ATS (62.5 percent) all-time. The Jaguars surrendered 20 to the Texans in Week 7, while the Eagles allowed 21 in defeat to the Panthers.

Go Low With These Big Losers

The 49ers, Cardinals, Bengals, and Bills were all routed by four touchdowns or more last week. None put up more than 10 points. Teams entering Week 8 coming off a loss of 28 points or more have cashed the "under" in 22 of 28 games since 1989. They average a paltry 14.8 points per game.

Winston Woes

The Buccaneers are 7-12 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3 percent) in their last 19 games in which QB Jameis Winston tossed a pick in his previous outing. Tampa posts 18.6 points per game in this spot.

Ask Yourself One Question: Do I Feel Lucky?

The "under" has hit in two-thirds of contests (18-9) when a team comes off a loss to the Colts since Andrew Luck took over as starting quarterback. Indy thrashed the Bills 37-5 last week.

Well, Do Ya Punk?

This is the first game since 2007 (Patriots) the Bills are catching double digits at New Era Field on the NFL oddsboard. Since 2014, the ‘under’ is 10-3 (81.2 percent) when Buffalo is spotted more than a touchdown in a contest, averaging just 11.2 points. See a pattern here? Well, do ya?

Neutral Soil Recharge

The "over" is 17-5-1 (77.3 percent) in the next game for franchises that won as favorites on neutral soil in their last effort. They are scoring 29.8 points per game, seeing a 51.9 combined score soar past a 44.6 average total. The Seahawks, which are coming off a bye, rolled past the Raiders 27-3 as 3-point favorites at Wembley in Week 6.

Andy Reid AFC West Dominance

Here’s your weekly reminder that Andy Reid is 23-9 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7 percent) against AFC West rivals since hired as the Chiefs’ head coach in 2013. K.C. is covering a -1.6 average line by 5.5 points per game.

G-Men Gutter

The Giants are 5-20 SU in their last 25 clashes against a team with a better winning percentage, losing by 8.2 points per game. Opening a pick ‘em on the board, Washington enters with four victories to one for New York.

Texans Overvalued?

Houston’s 20-7 win as a 3.5-point underdog against the Jaguars last Sunday was just its second cover in its last 12 games. It was the first time since November 2017 beating any team by more than a touchdown. The Texans, in fact, have dropped their last five straight laying points. Favored by 7.5 points over the Dolphins, the hook could loom large in this matchup.

comment here