Week 8 NFL Predictions - San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 27, 2016 10:01 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 27, 2016 10:01 PM UTC

SBR handicapping professional Ross Benjamin went 8-4 last week with his football picks overall. Join us in reading his betting preview on Sunday game between San Diego and Denver. The article culminates with his NFL free pick on this contest.


San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos

The San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos will meet on Sunday for the second time in three weeks. The opening kickoff from Sports Authority Field in Denver is slated for 4:05 PM ET. Speaking of the meeting 2 weeks ago, San Diego came away with a 21-13 win and did so as a 3.5-point home underdog. That victory ended a 5-game losing streak for San Diego against Denver.

At the time of this writing (10/27), NFL betting odds at Bookmaker shows Denver as a 5.5-point favorite, and the posted total is 44.0. Bookmaker currently has an A+ grade at an extremely reliable online sports betting rating guide.


Chargers Better than Advertised

San Diego enters this week with an uninspiring 3-4 record thus far. However, if you look closer inside the numbers, San Diego is a much better team than their record indicates. The Chargers 4 losses have come by a combined 14 points. With a little bit of luck and a lot less bad fortune, the Chargers could’ve easily been 7-0 at this juncture. After starting 1-4, they’ve bounced back to win its next 2 games against Denver and at Atlanta. The Chargers defense has held opponents to 93 rushing yards or less in 6 of its 7 games.

 Broncos End 2-Game Slide

Denver opened the season with 4 straight wins, and the defending world champions appeared to have picked up right where they left off. They then proceeded to be humbled in in losses against San Diego and Atlanta. Nevertheless, they showed their championship pedigree by dominating Houston this past Monday night and came away with a convincing 27-9 win. Thus ending a mini 2-game losing streak.


Final Analysis and Pick

San Diego has been a terrific away underdog of late. The Chargers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as an away underdog of 2.0 or more. As a matter of fact, since 2013, San Diego has gone 8-0 ATS overall as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.0 and won 4 of those games straight up.

You may be surprised to know that Denver hasn’t exactly been a profitable home favorite recently. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 8.0 or less following a win. Even more, telling has been Denver’s ATS mark as a division home favorite of 6.0 or less. They’ve gone a dismal 0-6 in their last 6 in that precise role and lost 5 of those contests straight up.

Despite a disparity in these team’s records, my personal eye test indicates to me that San Diego is performing at a higher level than Denver over the past month. I’m going to trust what I’ve seen, and take the road underdog for one of my NFL week 8 picks.


Free NFL Pick: San Diego Chargers +5.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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