Week 8 NFL Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Betting

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 1:30 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014 1:30 PM GMT

This NFL handicapper previews all Week 8 games and serves up over-under NFL picks. The NFL betting odds board provides us with endless opportunities for further speculation in total betting markets. 

Week 7 Over-Under NFL Betting Recap
For three weeks we were doing sooo well with our over-under NFL picks that it was with some surprise – well, it was a bolt from the blue for us – when we only went 7-8-0 with our week 7 over-under NFL picks. Modest though it was, we’ve still improved our mark to 37-20-1 on our over-under picks through four weeks. We endeavour to augment that winning ratio with our subsequent predictions for week 8 NFL betting. Join us won’t you.

 

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos: O/U 50.5
NFL betting markets are bouncing on this game and with the betting public expecting a right shootout between the Chargers and Broncos, the total is sure to move a half-point up if not more. So jump on it while you can at the 50.5-points, which is just about right in our opinion. It falls in line with Thursday trends that reveal a 54-point average approximately. What’s more, when you consider both offenses rank in the top ten in passing yards and averaging over 25-points – 26.3 by Chargers and a whopping 31.5 points by Broncos, this does have high-scoring affair written all over it.

Free NFL Picks: Over 50.5

 

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons: O/U 47.0
Atlanta Falcons offense has steadily been coming down the charts, outdone by better offenses across the league and undone by defensive issues. As it stands, they are fifth in the league with 289.6 yards of passing offense, but they are 23rd in rushing offense with 98.1 yards per game, and they are averaging just 24.4 points. Lions are 13th in passing offense with 249.7 yards per game and 31st in rushing with just 82.4 yards, and they are averaging just 20-points per game. The 47-points assigned to this game on the NFL odds board seems just a tad bit too high, don’t you think? Take into consideration as well the transatlantic flight that is involved here as this game is set to get underway at Wembley Stadium, as well NFL betting trends that point towards the under for both – Falcons are 3-4 while Lions are 2-5 in over-under betting.

Free NFL Picks: Under 47.0

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals O/U 46.0
The Ravens have gone under in four of their seven games, including a 29-7 win over the Falcons in week 7 NFL betting. The Bengals have gone under in five of their six games, most notably last week when they emerged scoreless in a one-sided 27-0 loss in Indianapolis. Given the divisional implications, each side will try to avoid the loss in this game which could prompt a defensive approach and, in turn, a lean towards the ‘under.’ On the flipside, the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last 12 Cincinnati home games as well as cashing in seven of the last eleven Baltimore road games, including two this season. As such, we’re changing the ‘over’ 46.0 on our NFL picks here, if only because Andy Dalton and the Bengals have a lot to answer for the bagel last week.

Free NFL Picks: Over 46.0

 

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: O/U 41.0
The ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven Bills’ games this season while the ‘over’ has cashed in four of seven Jets’ games this season. Which of these realities is set to rule on Sunday? Both sides feature negative point differentials on the season – the Bills have been outscored by 7-points while the Jets have been outscored by a whopping 64-points. What’s more, the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six Buffalo games on the road against the NY Jets. The instinct is take the ‘under,’ but upon further reflection we’re going to back the ‘over’ on our NFL picks, if only because the Jets have acquired playmaker Percy Harvin, who could give a banged up Bills defense some headaches.

Free NFL Picks: Over 41.0

 

Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots O/U 50.0
According to the offensive stats for the NFL 2014 season, these are top offenses, quite close in passing and rushing production. By the numbers, the Bears’ average of 22.4-points per game is almost as good as the Patriots’ 26.7-points per game. The reality is that the pair couldn’t be enjoying more contrasting fortunes than they are. Patriots boast a healthy 33-point differential behind a three game winning streak, while the Bears boast an ailing minus 14-point differential, struggling behind inconsistent form and a frighteningly unstable offense and defense. The ‘over’ has cashed for both teams more often than not however – Patriots are 5-2 in over-under betting and Bears are 4-3 in over-under betting. When summing up the scores for both teams through seven games we see a perceptible score trend that averages around 48 points for the Patriots and 46-points for the Bears. We’d probably be more comfortable if this game were set to a 48-49.5-point total, or thereabouts, but we’re going to go out on a limb here and back the ‘over’ 50.0 on our NFL picks. The last three games have seen the Patriots score 111 points for an average of 37-points per game. IF you agree and the Bears are good for the remaining 13-points at the very least, this should be an winning NFL pick.

Free NFL Picks: Over 50.0 at Bet365

 

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans O/U 43.5
Houston are 4-3 in over-under betting, with the former trending in their last two games which went over 50-points 33-28 loss to Colts and 30-24 loss to Pittsburgh on Monday Night. Titans, meanwhile, are 2-5 in over-under betting. If there were an alarming stat, it’s their minus 51-point differential through six games. At face value, this could be a battle in the trenches between two divisional rivals, which has us leaning towards the ‘under.’ If Jake Locker does return to the line up on Sunday as reports seem to suggest he is, things could become a bit more interesting. Five of the last seven games between this pair have gone ‘over.’

Free NFL Picks: Over 43.5

 

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 43.0
Miami Dolphins are 4-2 in over-under betting, but 0-2 on the road in over-under betting this season. Jaguars, meanwhile, are 4-3 overall this season in over-under betting. It’s hard to ignore, however, since rookie Blake Bortles took over at centre, the blowouts have stopped. They’ve gone three games in a row with the total going no higher than 30-points combined.

Free NFL Picks: Under 43.0

 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 42.0
To some extent, this is a rather low NFL total line given that the trend between these two outfits has seen the ‘over’ cash for NFL bettors –going7-of-3 in the last ten games between the Bucs and Vikings. As well, the Bucs are 4-2 in over-under betting this season. That being said current form is suspect on both sides of the coin, which has forced a low total. Offense has been found wanting in the Vikings camp with both camps coming up with just 120 points to date.

Free NFL Picks: Under 42.0

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers: O/U 44.0
A clash between two dual-threat quarterbacks set to a low 44.5-point total seems to be an error in judgement. Things might not be going to plan for either team, but one thing is certain – there are offensive weapons on both sides of the coin that can light up. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Carolina’s seven games this season and in four of Seattle’s six games this season.

Free NFL Picks: Over 44.0

 

St. Louis Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs: O/U 44.0
While the Chiefs have the 30th ranked passing offense behind an average of 199.7 yards per game, they have the third best rushing offense that averages 140.3 yards per game.  St. Louis has a decent passing offense, which averages 253.3 yards per game and a modest 18th ranked rushing offense that averages 105.3 points per game.

Chiefs are scoring on average 23.7 points per game while the Rams are scoring 21.5 points per game, which plays neatly into the low-scoring affair on offer on the NFL odds board with the total set at 44-points. But we’re of the mind of going against the grain here. The Chiefs have only played twice at home this season, which makes all the difference on their stats. Their last home game was a 41-14 decimation of the Patriots. This could be another high-scoring affair to come out of seemingly nowhere.

Free NFL Picks: Over 44.0

 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals O/U 48.0
Eagles have outscored opponents by 51-points through six games while the Cardinals have outscored opponents by 21-points through six games. Overall, Eagles are averaging 30.5-points per game while the Cardinals are averaging 23.3-points per game. The 48-points on this game offered by sportsbooks seems appropriate. If both teams are true to form, this should go ‘over’.

Free NFL Picks: Over 48.0

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: O/U 49.0
The high-octane Colts offense is outscoring opponents by 80-points through seven games. They are putting up an average of 30-plus points and have also gone 5-2 in over-under betting since the start of the season. Pittsburgh are 4-3 in over-under betting, all while putting up an average of 22-points.  With two top offenses colliding, we should have a shootout. Take the ‘over’ on your NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Over 49.0

 

Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns O/U 43.5
The Raiders are winless and struggling on offense with an average of 15.3 points per game. Their defense is so porous though that the average combined score per game hovers around 41.6 through six games. Browns, meanwhile, have a much better offense that puts up 23.3-points. Games by the Browns are also averaging above 45-points per game. Understandably, given the offensive issues the Raiders are experiencing, bookies have set a low NFL line. Defensive issues on the Raiders side of the balls, and the Browns’ better offense coupled with home advantage could see this game over NFL betting expectations.

Free NFL Picks: Over 43.5

 

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints: O/U 54.5
This is the highest total in week 8 NFL betting, appropriately given to two of the most potent offenses that can seriously light up when the mood strikes. Packers are averaging almost 30-points per game behind a highly efficient offense while the Saints are coming up just shy of 27-points per game. Looking at just the last four Packers games reveals a 36.25-point average. What’s more, the Packers are 6-1 in over-under betting through seven weeks. The over has cashed in four of the last five games between these two outfits at the Superdome. Packers alone could account for more than half of this total. Take the Over 54.5 on your NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Over 54.5 

 

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys: O/U 49.5
Dallas Cowboys are 4-3 in over-under betting thanks to cashing on the over in four of their last five games this season. Dallas are averaging 28-points per game approximately while the Redskins are putting up 21.6-points which falls in line perfectly with this total line. Tipping us towards the over is the fact that Dallas are riding an incredible six-game winning streak and have scored more than 30-points in four of their seven games and they are averaging almost 30-points in their last three home games.

Free NFL Picks: Over 49.5

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