Week 8 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 7:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014 7:15 PM UTC

It pays to be honest with people and I had a tough time here last week against the NFL odds with my sports picks. Time to make adjustments and dig up winners for Week 8 versus the betting odds.

Against the sportsbooks with NFL picks, I have two False Favorites and one Top Dog that are set to cash.


New York Jets Bloated Favorites, Adds to Problems
It’s been quite a week for the Jets; they outplayed New England on the road and ALMOST beat the Patriots. But thanks to an offense that is ranked 30th in red zone for scoring touchdowns (and not very good even 10 yards further out), Gang Green settled for four field goals and lost 27-25.

The next day Seattle found a pigeon to take Percy Harvin off their hands. While the Jets are giddy to have Harvin, he will be of little use this season because he doesn’t know the playbook. After this year, chances are a brand new coaching staff will be brought in, which will require another reboot and let’s not forget this is his third stop in three years and Harvin has not played in 16 games since 2011, plus the whole attitude issue which hasbeen uncovered.

But this is how the Flyboys roll and they are 7-13 ATS as home division favorites since 2004, facing a Buffalo team with a better defense, a modestly better offense and more continuity in terms of game plans week to week.

NFL False Favorite: N.Y. Jets

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Nothing Easy in the Big Easy for the Saints
New Orleans was supposed to be authentic Super Bowl contender, but with a 2-4 record they look anything but.

The numbers tell the story as the Saints last year allowed 19.5 PPG, this year they are surrendering eight more per game at 27.5. The New Orleans vaunted offense is still third in yards per game (401.9), yet they rank 24th in yards per point at 15.9. Toss in both the offense and defense need to be held accountable for mistakes in the Saints losing three fourth quarter leads and suddenly their record makes more sense.

In playing Green Bay, as a NFL football handicapper who understands many elements on how sportsbooks set lines, New Orleans had to be a short favorite to start to keep the betting action relatively balanced.

However, when taking the temperature of both teams, the Packers are healthy and feeling fit, while Sean Payton’s team is very close to needing urgent care and finds a way to lose this game.

NFL False Favorite: New Orleans

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Tennessee in Right Situation for Upset
The NFL at crush time is about whatever team’s best players making plays to win games. However, you still have to reach that point during a course of the contest and this more often than not is about how the entire team plays.

Houston has more brand name super stars than Tennessee, but if you subtract J.J. Watt, Arian Foster and an aging Andre Johnson, not much to choose from between the two teams including the quarterback position.

Though the Titans are only 2-5, they are a mere one-point home underdog on the NFL odds board to Houston, who has dropped four of five and three straight. When favored teams like the Texans that are a marginally losing outfit (40 to 49 percent range) at 3-4, are facing a weaker team (25 to 40 percent), they are 20-48 ATS the past three decades.

Consider Tennessee a live home dog!

NFL Underdog with Bite: Tennessee 

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