Week 7 Recap: NFL Betting Trends, Results and More

Nikki Adams

Monday, October 20, 2014 12:21 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 20, 2014 12:21 PM UTC

Now that Sunday’s round of Week 7 NFL betting is firmly in the books, we look at the results, collate the betting trends and analyse the winners and losers for another instalment of our weekly NFL betting recap. We’ve got all the action covered.

NFL Week 7 Main Highlights
Another almost complete slate of football action unfolded in week 7 – only the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on a Bye Week. The highlight reel: St. Louis Rams shock Seattle to deliver one of the week’s biggest upsets; Jacksonville Jaguars clinch their first win on the season (yupee!); and the Bengals swallow a bagel in Indianapolis.

NFL Week 7 Betting Results
The favourites edged the underdogs 11-3 in straight up betting but went an even 7-7 against the spread. Home teams edge road teams 11-3 in straight up betting but also emerged on par 7-7 against the spread. Finally, after having the ‘over’ edge the ‘under’ for several weeks, including week 6 when it went 10-5 overall, it dropped 6-8 to the under in week 7 NFL betting.

Overall NFL Betting Results
Through seven weeks of football betting, the favourites own the 72-31-1 edge over the underdogs in straight up betting and the 54-47-3 edge against the spread.  Home teams are 60-43-1 to the good over away teams in straight up betting but trail 44-57-3 against the spread. Finally, the over nudges ahead of the under 55-49 in total betting.

Going Over Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football lived up to the shootout trend we’ve seen for the most part this season, save in week 2’s clash between the Ravens and Steelers that went 26-6 to the Ravens, when New England Patriots beat the New York Jets at the Foxboro 27-25 to serve up a 53-point extravaganza that came just under the 54.3-point average we collated through the first six weeks. Speaking of which, the first game of week 7’s NFL betting slate also served up the biggest home favourite to cash in straight up betting as well as the biggest underdog to cash against the spread. Patriots came through as the -500 favourites to win straight up but the Jets cashed as the whopping 9.5-point underdogs.

Big Home Faves
Big home favourites that stepped up both SU and ATS included the Packers, Ravens and Cowboys. Packers beat the Panthers 38-17, coming through as the -290 favourites straight up and the 7-point chalk. Ravens beat the Falcons 29-7 to come through as the -290 favourites and 7-point chalk as well, while the Cowboys defeated the Giants 31-21 as the -280 favourites and 6-point chalk.

We can’t talk about big home favourites without giving the Denver Broncos their deserved due in this category after coming up big over the San Francisco 49ers in Sunday Night Football betting, covering as the 7-point chalk and cashing as the -290 favourites in a 42-17 blowout which marked Peyton Manning breaking Brett Favre’s all-time TD passing record to boot.

Although Indianapolis Colts delivered as the home favourites, their 27-0 win over the Bengals reveals just hoe underrated they were as the -165 SU favourites and the 3-point chalk. (Or, put another way, the Bengals were overrated at their expense.)

Home favourites that delivered in straight up betting but failed to cover, over and above New England, included Washington, Detroit and Buffalo. Redskins beat the Titans to cash as the -245 favourites but fell short of the 5.5-points for the cover in a 19-17 victory. Detroit rallied to beat the New Orleans Saints 24-23 to pull off the last gasp win as the -140 favourites while the Saints covered as the 3-point underdogs. Finally, Buffalo edged the Vikings in a 19-17 win to come through as the -250 favourites, but came up short as the 4-point chalk. (At one point, the NFL betting line on this game moved as high as 6-points, which we were sure was way too many points to lay with the Bills, so we adjusted our NFL pick to the Vikings to cover in our end-of-week article: What the Bookies missed.)

Home Dogs Punch Above Weight Class
Jacksonville Jaguars masterminded one of the upsets of the week when they defied the NFL odds to beat the Cleveland Browns at home. Jaguars proved their worth as the +210 home pups straight up and the 5-5-point pups to those NFL bettors that took a chance on them. Also pulling off the improbable upset were the St. Louis Rams, who handed the Seattle Seahawks their second straight defeat of the season, first losing streak since 2012. Rams came through as the +240 home pups and the 6.5-point pups in a 28-26 win over the Hawks.

The only home underdog that failed to cash in week 7's NFL picks were the Oakland Raiders, who lost to the Arizona Cardinals 24-13. Cardinals proved just how underrated they were as the 3.5-point road chalk and as the mere -175 favourites in SU betting. Indeed, the Cardinals were one of our lock bets of the week.

Road Dogs Defy the NFL Odds
Kansas City Chiefs were our top road dog choice to mastermind the upset in week 7 NFL betting. So they did, beating the Chargers 23-20 to cash as the +175 pups in SU NFL betting and as the 4-point pups against the spread. Meanwhile, Miami Dolphins cashed as the +155 underdogs SU and as the 3-point chalk in a convincing 27-14 win in Chicago.

Other road dogs that proved bankable in week 7 (already mentioned above) were the Jets, Vikings, Saints and Titans as they all covered.

Total Betting View
After a couple of good weeks for the 'over' in total betting, the 'under' ruled in week 7 with 9-5 record, largely down to several lopsided scores, such as the Colts blanking the Bengals 27-0 and the Ravens holding the Falcons to a 29-7 score. The most surprising had to be the Jaguars defense holding the Browns to just 24-6. The highest tally of the week came – surprise, surprise – behind Peyton Mannings’ how-to-throw-passing-touchdowns-clinic with a 42-17 win over the Niners.


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