Week 7 Opening Odds Report for 49ers vs. Broncos

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 6:11 PM GMT

Two of the betting public’s favorite teams go at it this Sunday night when the Denver Broncos host the San Francisco 49ers. The NFL odds are in Denver’s favor – will they make it a full seven points by kick-off?

Jason’s Record After Week 6: 21-22 ATS, 5-10-1 Totals

Profit: minus-13.99 units
 

Chalk can be an expensive habit. Believe it or not, favorites only went 8-7 ATS during Week 6 of the regular season, but it was the biggest of the public teams who made Jay Rood put his foot through the wall of the MGM Mirage sportsbook. The Denver Broncos (–10 away) earned the unlikely matador cover against the New York Jets when Geno Smith threw a pick-six with 15 seconds remaining. Make the final: Denver 31, New York 17. Oh, well. At least Floyd Mayweather can pay his legal bills now.

We’ll see the Broncos take on another public darling this Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) when they host the San Francisco 49ers, who also returned an interception to the house in the final minute of their 31-17 victory over the St. Louis Rams (+3.5 at home). Beating the Broncos at Mile High should be a tougher task; Denver is laying 6.5 points as we go to press, up from six points when the NFL odds were first published. We’re already seeing the magic number seven go up at a handful of our featured online sportsbooks.

 

Chicken Parm, You Taste So Good
As we go to press, we’re still waiting for enough data to come in on this matchup to produce an expanded consensus report. But we can tell you that the Broncos were getting 56 percent support Tuesday morning at –7 (+110). They’ve covered a pair of big spreads since the bye week, improving to 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS while taking over top spot on the Super Bowl XLIX futures market at 4-1.

Denver has also taken over the hearts and minds of America’s football fans. According to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll between Sept. 10-17, the Broncos were the No. 1 favorite team of respondents, unseating the Dallas Cowboys for the first time since 2007. That’s the power of Peyton Manning. The Broncos can be expected to pull in a metric tonne of action this week – Manning needs two touchdown passes to tie Brett Favre’s career record of 508, and this game just happens to be your next installment of Sunday Night Football.

The 49ers (4-2 SU and ATS) are no shrinking violets themselves. They checked in at No. 7 on the The Harris Poll poll, and if you go by the NFL public money charts available online, San Francisco (No. 5 overall) is actually ahead of Denver (No. 12). Don’t be fooled, though: the Niners have played one more game than the Broncos, and besides, Colin Kaepernick (No. 13 in passing DVOA) is no Peyton Manning (No. 2).

 

Lee Jeans
The Broncos aren’t just No. 1 in the polls. They’re also the top team on the Football Outsiders efficiency charts (No. 1 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 18 special teams), while San Francisco is languishing at No. 15 overall (No. 18 offense, No. 3 defense, No. 27 special teams). Denver’s offseason makeover on defense is clearly paying dividends; opponents have been limited to 20.8 points per game, just a shade behind San Francisco at 20.5 points – although that includes a pick-six and a punt return TD against the Niners.

Special teams haven’t been particularly special for either club. Denver let Pro Bowl PK Matt Prater go after rookie Brandon McManus performed well during Prater’s four-game suspension, but McManus is still just a cheaper substitute at this point. And San Francisco punter Andy Lee has seen his net yardage plummet from 41.7 to 36.5. Maybe moving from Candlestick Park to the Field of Jeans has something to do with it. Whatever it is, the Niners can’t afford to give Manning a short field to work with Sunday night.

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