Week 7 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Friday, October 17, 2014 7:16 PM GMT

It’s almost the halfway point of the NFL season, and the NFL Odds are heating up. Here in Week 7, there are some very intriguing values that you could use to add value to your NFL Picks. 

Bengals vs. Colts
Over the last two weeks, the Bengals' defense has been a shell of itself, and this week may not help that as they head into Indianapolis. The NFL Odds have the Colts as -3 home favorites, with a total of 50 points. The Colts’ defense on the other hand has been trending upward this season, and with the status of AJ Green still up in the air, the Colts’ defense is looking even better this week. I think the Colts are the play here, not just because of their defense, but because the Bengals’ secondary is going to have their hands full. Plus, the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites, while the Bengals have given up a combined 80 points in their last two games. Lay the points with the Colts, and add them to your NFL Picks.

My Pick: Colts -3

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Browns vs. Jaguars
While the Jaguars and Browns likely won’t be the most-watched game of the Week 7 schedule, it could be one of the more valuable. The NFL Odds have the Browns as a -5 ½ road favorite, with a total of 45 points. This is pretty hefty line movement considering the odds opened up at -3. Now that the NFL Odds are all the way to -5 ½ in favor of the road team, these odds are very intriguing. However instead of focusing on the spread, the total is where I am focused this week. At 45 points, this game could be a lot higher scoring than what some are projecting. Both of these defense are not that great, and both are ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in both rushing and receiving defense. The over is 5-2 in the Jags last seven home games, and in all of those they were an underdog. The over is also 4-0 in the Jags’ last four games following an ATS win. For the Browns, the over has cashed in four of their five games this season, and the over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. On top of that, the over is 9-4 in Cleveland’s last 13 conference games, and 8-0 in a game following an ATS win.

My Pick: OVER 45

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Texans vs. Steelers
To finalize the Week 7 slate, Monday Night Football has a nice matchup between the Texans and Steelers. The NFL Odds have the Steelers as solid -3 ½ favorites, with a total of 44 ½. Even with the Steelers playing badly this season on defense, the sportsbooks are still confident in them as favorites. However I am not, and I see the Texans as a potential value on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing over 350 total yards in their previous game. On the other side, the Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs between +3 ½ and +10. Look for the Texans to run all over the Steelers in this game, and for them to probably have some success through the air because of it. The Steelers are broken right now, and until they prove otherwise, I am fading them.

My Pick: Texans +3 ½ 

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