Week 7 NFL Picks on the 'Over' for 49ers vs. Broncos

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 2:15 PM GMT

Denver and San Francisco have both suffered key injuries on the defensive side of the football, which makes the OVER a logical pick Sunday night in the Mile High City.

Getting Points
San Francisco is 4-2 SUATS through six games, which is important to consider when looking over the NFL odds, considering head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew will be getting points for the first time this year.

The 49ers have compiled a 7-4-1 ATS mark during his time in the Bay Area, while they’ve won and covered the number in their last three contests, including a 31-17 victory over the St. Louis Rams as 3.5-point favorites on ESPN’s Monday Night Football.

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, the franchise is 14-7 SU and 14-6-1 ATS on the road, with the UNDER going 11-10 in that situation.

 

All About Manning
Denver has produced a 13-6 ATS record at home during the regular season with Peyton Manning on the field, as the future Hall of Fame selection needs just three touchdowns to pass Brett Favre for the most in league history, which is the type of storyline to attract betting action on the home favorite.

The Broncos have outscored their first five opponents by a 147-104 combined margin, while they’ve captured all three of their games at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

It’s important to point out that the team is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 7 points at this venue since the arrival of Manning.

 

Willis’ Injury
The 49ers are allowing just 287.2 yards per game this season, but they’ll have a hard time holding back one of the top offenses in the league, especially with their star linebacker being listed as doubtful with a toe injury.

Patrick Willis suffered the injury in the second quarter Monday, and is expected to see the same specialist who has performed treatment on Cincinnati Bengals wideout A.J. Green.

 

Containing Kaepernick
NFL handicappers will find that the Broncos rank fourth in the league in total defense, as they’ve managed to rack up 15 sacks this season, but it’s going to be hard for this unit to contain 49ers signal-caller Colin Kaepernick with linebacker Danny Trevathan being moved to the short-term injured reserve list.

Trevathan would’ve likely served as a spy to contain the dual-threat quarterback, as fellow linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are edge pass rushers in the team’s current alignment.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their top NFL picks, as the OVER is 13-5-1 in the Broncos’ last 19 home games, while the 49ers have climbed above the number in 17 of their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday affair.

NFL Pick: Over 50.5 at 5Dimes

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