Week 7 NFL Picks: Prop Betting Options to Offer Betting Value

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 8:21 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 8:21 PM GMT

It's that time again where we examine Bovada weekly special NFL props odds for Week 7. And some this week involve three of the biggest-name players in the sport: Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and J.J. Watt, all three MVP candidates this season. 

Will Peyton Manning Throw his Record 509th Career TD Pass vs. the 49ers?
Yes is -180 on NFL odds and no +150. Manning currently is at 506, two behind Brett Favre's mark. Manning has thrown at least three TD passes in every game but one this season and that was a loss in  Seattle. The 49ers are again a terrific team defensively and rank No. 2 overall in passing yards allowed per game. The Niners have given up nine touchdown throws in six games. In the last three games, all wins, the 49ers have surrendered just two total. The only guy to throw for at least three vs. San Francisco this year was Chicago's Jay Cutler in Week 2.

NFL Free Pick: Yes. Manning will be throwing often with the Niners shutting down the Denver run game. Bodog also offers NFL odds on who catches the record-breaking pass. Tight end Julius Thomas is the 2/1 favorite and should be considering he has an NFL-high nine TD catches and is on break to set the NFL record. You have to lean him. Finally, Manning has an 'over/under' of 12.5 yards on the game-breaking TD pass (both -115). Go 'under.'

 

What Will Philip Rivers' Quarterback Rating Be vs. Kansas City: 'Over/Under' 110.5
Both options are -115 on NFL odds. Why this random statistic? Because Rivers has had a rating of 120 or better in five straight games, breaking the NFL record for QBs who had at least 15 pass attempts in each. Rivers' lowest rating in that stretch was 123.8 last week in Oakland. His high was 131.4 in Week 3 at Buffalo. Since the start of last season, Rivers' rating is a splendid 108.7 and his 117.6 number this year leads the NFL. The Chiefs rank 23rd in the NFL in allowing opposing QBs a rating of 97.0. Last year in two games vs. the Chiefs, Rivers had ratings of 127.3 and 104.2.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' It's simply not that easy to get a rating of 111. Guys can drop passes or Rivers could throw a Hail Mary interception, etc.

 

How Many Touchdowns Will J.J. Watt Score this Season: 'Over/Under' 4.5
'Under' is the -140 favorite at sportsbooks and 'over' at even  money. The unbelievable Watt, perhaps the most disruptive NFL defender since Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor, has three touchdowns already.  Not bad for a defensive lineman. By comparison, Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles led the league with 19 scores last year and also has three in 2014. Watt has a 1-yard TD reception (that's the shocker), 80-yard interception return and 45-yard fumble return. He is the first player since the Bears'  William “The Refrigerator” Perry in 1985 with three touchdowns in a season as a defensive lineman. But Perry was used as a goal-line running back.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under' on NFL picks. Maybe the Texans give Watt one more gimmick score try on offense but it's just too hard to score defensive touchdowns. Bovada's NFL odds also ask whether Watt will win Defensive Player of the Year, with yes at -140 and no at even. Definitely yes there. Everyone else is playing for second.

 

Will Matt Forte Lead the NFL in Receptions this Season: Yes-Only at +1000.
The Bears' running back is tops in the NFL with 46 catches. The last running back to lead the league in that category for a full season was San Francisco's Roger Craig with 92 catches in 1985. The single-season record for a back is 101 by Arizona's Larry Centers.

NFL Free Pick: Roll the dice. Forte never comes off the field and the Bears don't run the ball well so he will continue to get fed short passes. He also doesn't have to worry about guys like Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green to beat out this year for the receptions title.

 

Will the Seahawks Lose Another Home Game in the Regular Season?
Yes is -250 and no +170. That yes is such a heavy favorite is shocking. Perhaps the sportsbooks are overreacting to the Seahawks' home defeat in Week 6 vs. Dallas. It was only Seattle's second home loss ever under Russell Wilson. Here are the remaining home opponents: Oakland, NY Giants, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis.

NFL Free Pick: No. Realistically, only the 49ers have a shot and they haven't won in the Pacific Northwest in a while.

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