Week 7 NFL Picks: Giants are Best Value on the Board

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 19, 2014 10:58 AM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 10:58 AM GMT

The NFC East is back in business, and it’s where you’ll find this week’s premium value NFL pick. The New York Giants have nearly all the betting angles in their favor this Sunday afternoon against the Dallas Cowboys.

Jason’s record after Week 6: 21-22 ATS, 5-10-1 Totals

Profit: minus-13.99 units
 

It’s good to see the Dallas Cowboys (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) doing so well. They’ve taken a lot of flak the last few years, some of it warranted, but is finishing 8-8 three years in a row a crime? That’s three straight non-losing seasons. The New Orleans Saints can’t claim that. And now the Cowboys are well on their way to making it four in a row. They grow up so fast (sniff). Did we mention Dallas was one of our Top 5 follow candidates this year?

We’re off the bandwagon this week. The Cowboys may have reached peak oil after beating the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks 30-23 as 10-point road dogs. That doesn’t make them an automatic fade, but on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) in Arlington, they happen to meet this week’s BeeVee winner for Best Value on the Board: the New York Giants.
 

Highly Fashionable Trends
Let’s start with a flashback to our featured NFL betting trend for Week 7: underdogs who beat the defending Super Bowl champions are 25-41 ATS in their next game since 2000. Notice how all of a sudden people are giving the Cowboys mad props now that they’ve gone into Seattle and gotten a win? It’s bad enough that there’s a backlash brewing among sharper-minded NFL analysts, telling people to hold their horses.

That might not be the only trend working against the ‘Boys this week. They opened as 5-point faves in this matchup before moving to –6.5; as we go to press, several of our online sportsbooks have Dallas priced at –7, albeit with a discount on the juice. This puts the Giants (3-3 SU and ATS) in the conversation for the “divisional dogs of seven or more” trend that we featured in Week 6. And it moves them onto a very magical number for betting on football.

But wait: There’s more. This is the second straight away game for the G-Men, and that means they qualify for the betting trend we told you about in Week 4: Teams in this situation went 376-287 ATS (56.7 percent) between 2002 and 2013 inclusive. According to trendmeister Walter Cherepinsky, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin has a personal record of 15-13 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Mind you, his teams were 10-4 ATS after a win and 5-9 ATS after a loss, which is completely backward from the way things normally work. But we’ll add this trend to the pile anyway.
 

From the Delta to the DRC
Not only do the Giants have all the BeeVee in this matchup, they almost had enough creamy handicapping goodness to be a Five-Star Deadbolt Lock of the Millennium. We give them the advantage in coaching – not much argument there with Coughlin and his staff versus Jason Garrett and his staff. The Giants also rank higher in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, No. 12 to No. 16 for the Cowboys. But Pro Football Reference has Dallas slightly ahead at plus-0.8 SRS to plus-0.6 SRS for New York. The Cowboys (No. 20) also rank higher in special teams DVOA than the Giants (No. 22). We’ll call it a draw.

We’ve also made a tough call on the injury front. The Giants have lost Victor Cruz (knee) for the year, and the secondary is a bit of a mess with CB Trumaine McBride (thumb) on injured reserve and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ankle) questionable for Sunday. The Cowboys have offensive line issues with RT Doug Free (foot) out this week and LT Tyron Smith playing on a gimpy ankle. Not good, but not as bad as New York’s issues. We’ll drop a few units on the G-Men anyway.
 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: DAL
Defense/Special Teams: EVEN
Coaching: NYG
Market Bias: NYG
Betting Line Value: NYG

Verdict: 2-star pick on NYG

Free NFL Pick: Bet 3.5 units on the Giants +7 (–120) at Bovada

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