Week 7 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 7:06 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2014 7:06 PM GMT

I returned to profitability against the NFL odds last week with winners on Jacksonville and against Seattle. Let’s see if we can keep the train moving in the right direction with more victories. 

Against the sportsbooks with NFL picks, I have two False Favorites and one Top Dog that are set to cash.

 

Panthers vs. Packers: Green Bay Too Heavy a Favorite
The Packers were great at the start and finish in their come from behind win over Miami; but in the middle they were whipped by a score of 24-13. I know oddsmakers will often shade the Pack at Lambeau Field being a public team.

Nevertheless, the Green Bay defense has been prone to allowing long drives all season, being undersized up front and survived thanks to a +9 turnover margin.

With Cam Newton’s left ankle no longer an issue, NFL football handicappers understand what the Carolina quarterback is capable of as a passer and now as a running threat. Newton has big play possibilities with rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin breaking out and he can scamper for long distances and the Panthers are 8-1 ATS after a road contest.

In addition, we have the uncertain health status of the Packers starting cornerbacks and when looking at the NFC contest for sports picks,

Green Bay is the less attractive side.

NFL False Favorite – Green Bay

 

Giants vs. Cowboys: Public Starting to Pump Up Dallas
Last week I had Seattle here as a false favorite because I believed the Cowboys had the goods to compete with Seattle. Dallas played even better than I thought they would in the very impressive upset.

For their NFC East battle with the Giants, I am convinced we have the – perfect storm - of sequences to make Dallas a false favorite.

The Cowboys victory can be rather intoxicating for the players and those studying the betting odds have taken Dallas from -4 or -4.5 to -6 in the first part of the week, but seem to be ignoring the Jerry’s Kids are 6-16 ATS as home favorite of late.

New York after three strong showings was flatter than an ironing board in Philadelphia and that too is part of the reason why Dallas is a burgeoning favorite. But the G-Men are 15-6 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 27 or more points game and are 5-1-1 ATS at Arlington.

Big Blue keeps it close and might take down this mildly overblown favorite.

NFL False Favorite – Dallas

 

Cardinals vs. Raiders: Oakland to End Long Losing Streak?
Oddsmakers pushed Arizona out as four-point favorite and it was swiftly lowered to a juiced -3 (-115 to -125 compared to the normal -110 NFL odds).

Based on the facts, Arizona won 10 games a year ago, is 4-1 this season despite having to play three different quarterbacks already this season. Oakland on the other hand has gone from their moniker of Commit to Excellence to “Let’s just cash checks”, showing zero commit from the players.

But interim head coach Tony Sparano is a little feisty fellow and last week the Raiders led San Diego most of the game and Chargers needed a late touchdown to avoid an upset.

With Arizona having Philadelphia and Dallas next on the docket, this is an easy game to overlook against a team on an 11-game losing streak.

The Raiders got close to finally soaking up a victory and with the number this short; oddsmakers are suggesting Oakland has a shot as a live home underdog.

NFL Underdog with Bite – Oakland at The Greek

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