Week 7 is underway and we bring you a recap of each and every game in this space. As well, we look at how betting markets performed and where value bets were to be had.
NFL Week 7 Betting Recap
Green Bay Packers kicked off a highly entertaining week 7 NFL betting card with a home victory over the Chicago Bears. We recap Thursday Night Football below in the context of the market offerings proffered by various sportsbooks over the course of the week and assess the results against consensus betting trends.
As the results continue to pour in for week 7 we will update this column accordingly until all 15 games are recapped and reviewed. It’s after all not just about the winners on the field but also the winners in sports betting.
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Bears 10 vs. Packers 26
Westgate Advanced Line: Packers -10.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Packers -9 (-105)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10) : -9 (+110)
Public Consensus Bet: Packers 55.63%
By closing doors, the markets closed with the Green Bay Packers still laying a significant amount of points. Consider the main soundbite ahead of week 7 NFL betting was, ‘What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers O-line?’ It’s a wonder the markets opened with such lopsided NFL odds. Early consensus betting was split down the middle with this pair almost 50-50.
The public loves the Packers on its weekly NFL picks. They are amongst one of the most bet teams in the current climate along with the Patriots mainly. The shocking upset of the Packers by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last week though did leave an indelible impression and early bettors were undecided at the window. In any event, the Packers did finally emerge as the consensus bet with 55.63% of tickets taken by contributing sportsbooks and, importantly, they had 61.62% of the money locked down. What is most intriguing is the closing juice that reveals late betting must have bet up the Bears, in some cases such as Pinnacle where the NFL line closed Packers at -9 (+110) and Bears +9 (-130). It was to no avail though. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers won 26-10 to easily cover the -9 spread. It must be said they did get a bit lucky with the injury to Brian Hoyer. Before Hoyer’s injury the Bears had the game by the scruff of its neck.
Sunday, October 23, 2016
Giants 17 vs. Rams 10
Westgate Advanced Line: Giants -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Giants -2.5 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Giants -3 (-105)
Public Consensus Bet: Giants 55.77%
The Giants emerged as field goal favourites by closing doors thanks to public bettors that pounded the Giants on their week 7 wagering tickets. By closing doors, the Giants emerged with 55.77% of the tickets taken. Importantly, the money aligned with the Giants to the tune of 97.90% of the money. In fact, that’s overwhelming lopsided betting and featured massive sharp betting too. All in all a good win for both the public and sharps.
Saints 21 vs. Chiefs 27
Westgate Advanced Line: Chiefs -7
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Chiefs -7 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Saints 53.10%
By closing doors, the Saints emerged as the top consensus pick in this game despite the Chiefs boasting an undefeated record at home since last season. The Saints closed with 53.10% of the tickets taken and, intriguingly, 84.84% of the money was also cornered in their camp. Evidently public and sharp bettors were like-minded as far as this game was concerned on week 7 NFL picks. Tale told, the Chiefs edged the Saints 27-21 to come through for money line bettors as the home faves. The Saints did pull off the cover as the +7 road underdogs. So a bit of a mixed bag on the sports betting floor.
Colts 34 vs. Titans 26
Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Titans -2 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Titans -4 (-115)
Public Consensus Bet: Titans 57.57%
After the Colts lost a doozy in week 6, the public turned against them in no uncertain terms and bet up the Titans to -4 by closing doors. Books opened with the Titans at -2 but that NFL line quickly shot up to -4 (-115) by Sunday. Largely down to the 57.57% of tickets taken on the Titans. Sharp bettors though saw the value in the Colts as the road underdogs, and, by closing doors, large betting pushed the Colts share of the money in this game to 58.16%. Clearly, the public and sharps were on opposing sides of the coin where this AFC South matchup was concerned and it proved a win for the sharps. Not to mention books as well.
Vikings 10 vs. Eagles 21
Westgate Advanced Line: Eagles -1
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Vikings -1 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10) Vikings -3 (+110)
Public Consensus Bet: Vikings 60%
No surprise the only undefeated team going into week 7 topped consensus polls. The surprise – particularly to those bettors that backed Minnesota – was the Vikings didn’t come through. It wasn’t even close. The Eagles upset the Vikings as the home underdogs in a 21-10 victory and covered by 14 points (according to the closing +3 spread). Considering both public and sharps were heavy on the Vikings, it marked a big win for the books when Philadelphia defied the NFL odds.
Browns 17 vs. Bengals 31
Westgate Advanced Line: Bengals -10.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Bengals -10 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Bengals -11 (-120)
Public Consensus Bet: Browns 54.91%
From week to week the Browns emerge as the top consensus bet no matter which team they face. It’s a puzzling NFL betting trend, to say the least. They’re godawful. Is nobody paying attention to
just how bad they are? They simply can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. By closing doors, the Browns had 54.91% of the tickets taken and a whopping 88.41% of the money. In a nutshell, both the public and sharps got burned. Perhaps, for week 8 the Browns should be put on the backburner when they face the Jets. Just an idea for your week 8 NFL picks.
Redskins 17 vs. Lions 20
Westgate Advanced Line: Lions -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Lions -1.5 (-105)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Redskins -1 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Redskins 50.78%
By closing doors, the Redskins emerged with a slight edge over the Lions in terms of tickets taken. The 50.78% though is really a moot point. One could argue the betting was split almost down the middle in this game. Still, if we were to nit-pick, the slight edge does mean the books won over the public here. The sharps also emerged nominal winners as they pounded the Lions to the tune of 55.48% of the money wagered. Indeed, the Lions are proving to be a vogue NFL pick amongst sharp bettors. This isn’t the first game to see the sharps take the Lions against public consensus betting trends.
Raiders 33 vs. Jaguars 16
Westgate Advanced Line: Raiders -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Jaguars -1 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Jaguars -2.5 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Raiders 67.97%
The public loves the Raiders in 2016. Despite a recent dip in form, they didn’t give up on their precious Black and Silver and were rewarded handsomely when the Raiders defeated the Jaguars. In fact, it was a big win for Oakland covering as the +2.5 road underdogs by a 19.5 point differential versus the spread. Intriguingly, this game did feature a reverse line movement – the Jaguars opened as the -1 (-110) home chalk and closed as the -2.5 (-110) home chalk despite the public pounding the Raiders. That’s likely down to sharp triggers that favoured the Jaguars to no avail.
Bills 25 vs. Dolphins 28
Westgate Advanced Line: Bills -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Bills -3 (-105)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Bills -2.5 (-105)
Public Consensus Bet: Bills 54.49%
Consensus betting bet up the Bills early in the week up to -3 (-105) with 54.49% of the tickets taken. If you want, public’s knee-jerk reaction responding to the Bills first four-game winning streak in forever. To be fair, the Bills lost only narrowly. Thus, it could have gone the public’s way. In the end, it didn’t. It’s just the way the ball rolls. Somewhat surprisingly, the money was all in with the Dolphins to the tune of 94.46% wagered. Sharps were seriously in with the Dolphins and got it right.
Ravens 16 vs. Jets 24
Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): PK
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Jets -1.5 (-125)
Public Consensus Bet: Ravens 63.72%
That the public jumped off the NY Jets bandwagon is no surprise. Going into week 7 they were 1-5 SU and in a tailspin. Fitzpatrick lost the confidence of the organisation and coach, and the team was in flux. It was Geno Smith’s turn. Yikes. Few NFL bettors were having any of it. Well, the sharps were. In fact they bet the Jets with impunity, hence the Jets moved from a PK to -1.5 (-125) on the NFL odds board by closing time despite Ravens taking 63.72% of the tickets. Indeed, by closing doors the Jets had a whopping 96.55% of the money. The sharps couldn’t have gotten this game more right if they’d had a crystal ball.
Buccaneers 34 vs, 49ers 17
Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Bucs -2 (-105)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Niners -1 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Bucs 55.72%
The public was all over Tampa Bay in week 7 NFL picks. When markets closed on this game the Bucs had 55.72% of the tickets, thereby edging the Niners at home in consensus betting polls. Curiously, the NFL line moved against the Bucs from -2 on Sunday, October 16, to +1 by game time. The likely trigger was late sharp betting on the Niners. Tale told, the Bucs emerged big winners at Levi Stadium.
Chargers 33 vs. Falcons 30
Westgate Advanced Line: Falcons -5.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Falcons -6.5 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Falcons -5 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Chargers 52.43%
The San Diego Chargers are riding a two-game winning streak into week 8 following a massive upset win over the high-flying Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The 33-30 shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan lived up to expectations – even by cracking the high total trading. Tale told, the public got this game right despite evidence suggesting otherwise. The Chargers closed with 52.43% of tickets taken. The sharps were also on side as large betting triggers were recorded on this game to the tune of 71.22% of the money wagered. The upshot of which the NFL line moved in San Diego’s favour from +6.5 to +5 by closing doors.
Patriots 27 vs. Steelers 16
Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Patriots -7.5 (+104)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Patriots -7.5 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Patriots 64.22%
No surprise the most bet team in the NFL emerges as the top consensus pick with 64.22% of tickets taken. No surprise the Patriots had the bulk of the money too with 58.71% of the amount wagered. There were sharp triggers on the Steelers and large bets that came down the wire towards Pittsburgh, but not enough to tip the scale. In the end, the Patriots proved their merit with a 27-16 win, giving the public a good win.
Seahawks 6 vs. Cardinals 6
Westgate Advanced Line: Cardinals -1.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
Public Consensus Bet: Seahawks 55.57%
The headscratcher of the day, if not the season was the Sunday Night Football clash between the Seahawks and Cardinals. Those that watched the game must be able to agree: neither team looked like they wanted to win this game. Countless opportunities were fritted away as the team simply cancelled each other out. Granted the Seahawks emerged as the top consensus bet with 55.57% of tickets taken and 78.96% of the money. However, the 6-6 tie left everything on a rather unsatisfactory note, both in terms of the game itself and the NFC West picture as well in betting decisions across sports betting platforms and markets. It proved a mixed bag for public and sharp bettors, not to mention bookmakers.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Texans 9 vs. Broncos 27
Westgate Advanced Line: Broncos -6.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Broncos -6.5 (-110)
Pinnacle closing Line (20/10): Broncos -8.5 (-103)
Public Consensus Bet: Broncos 54.54%
At the bell toll the markets closed with the Broncos holding the edge in tickets taken. Bettors were down with the Broncos to the tune of 54.54%, making Denver the final consensus pick of week 7. Sharp bettors were on side according to SBR Consensus betting polls that revealed 80/07% of the money was camped with the Broncos and consisted of large bets four times the size of the largest average bets on the Texans. The one-sided betting bet up the Broncos from an opening -6.5 (-110) to -8.5 (-103) with Pinnacle. Some books went as high as Broncos laying -9, those included Bookmaker, Bodog, BetOnline and BetCris. What may have seemed as an exorbitant NFL line for a side going into week 7 riding a two-game losing streak proved not to be so. Broncos stuck it to Brock Osweiler and the Texans in a 27-9 victory to cover with plenty to spare. All in all, it was a good closing victory for the public and sharp bettors.