Week 7 Monday Night Football Winning Props & NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Monday, October 26, 2015 1:50 PM GMT

Looks like a mismatch on "Monday Night Football" as NFC West-leading Arizona (4-2) host the most disappointing team in the NFL in Baltimore (1-5). Let examine some game props with Bovada NFL odds.

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Joe Flacco 'Over/Under' 23.5 Completions, 255.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
It's a well-known betting fact that West Coast teams playing those 1 p.m. starts on the East Coast often struggle because it's obviously 10 a.m. Pacific time. Is there any negative for when an East Coast team heads West? This is Baltimore's third and final trip to the Pacific Time Zone this season. They lost 37-33 in Oakland in Week 2 and 25-20 in San Francisco last week (also a 19-13 Week 1 loss in the Mountain Time Zone in Denver). The Ravens nearly reached last season's AFC title game as they gave the Patriots all they could handle and then some in New England in last season's divisional round. Now they are just one of three teams with one win (Tennessee -- not a shock; Detroit -- surprising). Baltimore is the first team since the 1995 Indianapolis Colts to have each of its first six game decided by six points or fewer. No team has done it seven straight. The Ravens probably have to go 9-1 to close the season to have a chance at the playoffs; no 1-5 team ever has made the postseason. They are now +30000 long shots on NFL odds to win the Super Bowl.

Flacco is having a decent season. He is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,605 yards, eight touchdowns and seven picks.  He is on his fourth play-caller in as many seasons as former Bears coach Marc Trestman is the offensive coordinator. He has a pretty weak group of skill position players around him other than Steve Smith. The Ravens have had 10 wide receivers and tight ends participate in at least 10 percent of their snaps this season. Flacco has completed passes to Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Maxx Williams, Nick Boyle, Michael Campanaro, Darren Waller, Jeremy Ross and Chris Givens. Ever heard of most of those guys? Flacco has been sacked one time or fewer in four of six games, so protection hasn't been an issue. Arizona's pass defense is No. 7 against the pass in allowing 224.0 yards per game. It has given up nine TDs and is tied for the NFL lead with 11 interceptions.
NFL Free Picks: Ravens might be down big early and aren't running the ball well. 'OVER' all.

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Carson Palmer O/U 21.5 Completions, 285.5 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, .5 INTs
Palmer is having an MVP-caliber season. He looks nothing like the QB he was while playing with the Raiders. Now he has some much better weapons in the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Palmer is fifth in the NFL with 14 TD passes (most in franchise history through six games) and his rating of 106.9 is fourth in the NFL behind the Bengals' Andy Dalton, Packers' Aaron Rodgers and Patriots' Tom Brady (the latter two are your MVP favorites right now and Dalton probably third). And Palmer likes to go deep. Over 20 percent of Palmer's completions (27) are for at least 20 yards, a total tied for the NFL lead with Dalton. Five different players on the Cardinals' roster have a reception of at least 40 yards and another four more have one of at least 20. The Ravens' secondary has allowed 25 completions of at least 20 yards, third-worst in the NFL. Palmer hasn't faced the Ravens in a  few years but is 9-5 career against them. Baltimore is No. 29 against the pass, allowing 286.0 yards per game. It has allowed 11 touchdowns and picked off three passes.  And that's with facing just one true excellent quarterback in Dalton -- yes, the Ravens have faced Peyton Manning, but he's simply not a great QB these days.
NFL Free Picks: 'OVER' all.

 

Margin Of Victory
As noted above, the Ravens have played all close games. All of Arizona's games but one have been decided by at least 12 points and the Cardinals' four wins are all by that margin. The key for the team has been in the red zone. Arizona has 16 TDs in 17 red-zone appearances in its four wins and has gone 2-for-9 in its two losses. The Ravens might all but quit if they lose this game and the spread is 9 on NFL odds. But I think they have one more strong effort in them.
NFL Free Pick: Cardinals by 1-6 points at +325.

  

Ravens Score First +160 (best line at 5Dimes)
Cardinals Score First -170 (best line at GTbets)
Longest TD 45½ Ov -115 (best line at Bovada)
Longest TD 47½ Un -125 (best at BetOnline)
Total Field Goal 3½ +120 (best line SportsBetting)
Total Field Goals 3½ -130 (best line at GTbets)
1st Score TD -165  (best line at GTbets)
FG or Safety +160  (best line at SportsBetting)