Week 7 Line Moves That Matter - Where To Spot NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 5:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2016 5:30 PM UTC

Every week we highlight NFL betting line moves for each and every game alongside the impact of public betting trends from contributing sportsbooks in order to guide your weekly NFL picks. 



NFL Week 7 betting offerings from Pinnacle and Bookmaker

For the purpose of uniformity we look at Sunday night’s opening lines from Pinnacle and Bookmaker – high limits and reduced juice leaders – and compare and contrast those with Advanced Lines from Westgate Superbook. How have the NFL lines changed for Week 7 NFL picks and what are the factors contributing to the line moves.


Bears vs. Packers

Westgate Advanced Line: Packers -10.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Packers -9 (-105)
The Packers were beaten up by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Sunday’s game of the week to the surprise of many NFL bettors. The upshot of which is the NFL line whittles down to -9 (-105) with Pinnacle. You could say the Packers are falling out of favor to some extent as the offense continues to stutter, a shadow of the 2014 offense that lit up the NFL stage and sent Aaron Rodgers to the top of the MVP race in the regular season. Of course, the NFL line is still heavily stacked towards the Packers because the 1-5 SU Bears are proving to be exactly what most had them to be, a non-factor. It’s worth noting that public betting is split almost 50-50 between this pair according to SBR Consensus betting polls. 


Giants vs. Rams

Westgate Advanced Line: Giants -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Giants -2.5 (-110)
The Giants stopped the rot with a win over the Ravens on Sunday at MetLife. Week 7 sends the Giants to England for a date with the Los Angeles Rams on international ground. The Rams fell to the Lions in a 31-28 shootout at Ford Field. Predictably, the line remained the same at opening doors but the public appears to be betting up the Giants from -2.5 (-110) to -2.5 (-120) with most sportsbooks betting platforms. Some such as Sports Interaction and Bodog (both books offering 100% cash bonuses) have gone up to Giants laying -3 (+100) and (+105), respectively.


Saints vs. Chiefs

Westgate Advanced Line: Chiefs -7
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Chiefs -7 (-110)
Both the Saints and Chiefs are coming off wins in week 6 but the NFL betting line opened with the same key number -7 proposed by Advanced Line servings from Westgate. The intriguing bit the line is moving against the Chiefs at early doors as some sportsbooks hang the Chiefs on -6.5. Public bettors love shootout wins and they are definitely reacting to the Saints’ victory over the Panthers in a rollicking shootout that went the distance and resulted in a 41-38 score. Reduced juice leaders Pinnacle are laying the Chiefs at -6.5 (-107) and the Saints at +6.5 (-103) on Monday. If this NFL betting trend continues it’s likely this line will drop further so depending on which side of the coin you’re betting your week NFL 7 picks this could be a game to bet now or wait.


Colts vs. Titans

Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Bookmaker Opening Line (16/10): Titans -2 (-110)
Talk about an unheard of NFL betting line. The Titans laying -2 points at home to the Colts? Sure, the Titans have home advantage but the Colts have long been the standard of the AFC South and a perennial favorite on the sports betting floor. What gives, you may be wondering. The unbelievable fact that the Colts prop up the AFC South with a 2-4 SU record. Few would have predicted such an outcome by a quarter-and-a-half into the season. It didn’t help their cause when they fritter away a fourth quarter lead to the Texans in Sunday Night Football either. Interestingly, the public is reacting and the Titans emerge as the early consensus bet. Will that hold true by game time? Remains to be seen whether the swelling line (up to Titans -3 already on Monday) will trigger buyback on the Colts in late week 7 NFL picks.


Vikings vs. Eagles

Westgate Advanced Line: Eagles -1
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Vikings -1 (-110)
Another side to fall out of favor – so fickle is the public – are the Eagles. After falling to a second straight defeat to the Redskins the Eagles reopened as the +1 home underdog with most sports betting outlets. That negative outlook doesn’t look to be changing as the line continues to move against the Eagles, up to +2.5 with Bet365 and, even, +3 (+110) with Bodog. Sharps have loved the Vikings since week 1 of the season so it’ll be interesting to follow the money on this game as more betting comes down the wire and the NFL line is sure to hop around.


Browns vs. Bengals

Westgate Advanced Line: Bengals -10.5
Bookmaker Opening Line (16/10): Bengals -10 (-110)
The Bengals are off to one of their worst starts on the season but week 7 has them catching a break against the hapless 0-6 SU Browns. There’s really not a lot to be said about this game. The Bengals reopened at half-a-point less than the Advanced Line serving tipped but they are still considered the better team than the Browns. That said the NFL line is moving against the Bengals down to -9.5 with most sports betting shops by Monday. It seems the public is lapping up the points with the Browns despite 2-4 ATS record that features a -10.5-point losing margin and a -3.3 differential versus the spread.


Redskins vs. Lions

Westgate Advanced Line: Lions -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Lions -1.5 (-105)
Is the public buying what the Redskins are selling? That is, a four-game winning streak that features a recent win over public favorite Eagles in week 6. You bet they are. As a result, the NFL betting line moves against the Lions for this week 7 clash from -2.5 down to -1.5 and, even, a PK line with several outlets. Already the Redskins have 61% of early tickets taken. Kirk Cousins has to like that!


Raiders vs. Jaguars

Westgate Advanced Line: Raiders -2.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Jaguars -1 (-110)
The Raiders fall out of favor in a big way for week 7 following a 26-10 loss to the Chiefs. A bit drastic maybe? Let’s face it, Alex Smith and the Chiefs were always going to be tough to beat seeing as they were playoff contenders last season that rode an incredible 10-game winning streak down the stretch. Besides the Jaguars beat the Bears by the skin of their teeth, hardly a ringing endorsement. The public is lapping up the points with the Raiders though to the tune of 70% of early tickets taken. Clearly, they remain the vogue NFL pick.


Bills vs. Dolphins

Westgate Advanced Line: Bills -2.5
Bookmaker Opening Line (16/10): Bills -3 (-105)
Bills are riding their first four-game winning streak in forever and the public can’t ignore them anymore. Books reopened with the Bills laying a field goal on the road to the Dolphins, who pulled off a win over the Big-Ben-less Steelers. Early tickets taken reveal the Bills are one of the early top consensus NFL picks for week 7 with approximately 70% of tickets taken.


Ravens vs. Jets

Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): No Line
This NFL line will be updated following MNF.


Buccaneers vs, 49ers

Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Bucs -2 (-105)
Colin Kaepernick didn’t prove to be the answer in week 6. Then again, he did take on a hot Buffalo Bills side that simply continues to roll over the opposition. Still, books went to press with the Bucs as the -2  road favorites for this week 7 showdown. Interestingly, the public is split down the middle almost and that has the NFL line moving towards the Niners at some sports betting outlets such Sports Interaction and Bet Cris where the Bucs are now laying just -1.5 (-110).


Chargers vs. Falcons

Westgate Advanced Line: Falcons -5.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Falcons -6.5 (-110)
The Falcons pulled off the cover on the road in a loss to the Seahawks, a result that snapped their winning run of form. Evidently, that changed the outlook for the better as the Falcons reopened even higher on the NFL odds board laying -6.5 with Pinnacle and Bookmaker. Early betting has moved the NFL line up to -7 already with the public pounding both sides of the coin steadily. The Chargers raised some eyebrows with a win over Denver on Thursday Night Football, prompting NFL bettors to get back on their wagon.


Patriots vs. Steelers

Westgate Advanced Line: PK
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): Patriots -7.5 (+104)
The NFL line reopened with the Patriots at -7.5, a whopping jump from the Advanced PK Line last week. That is mostly down to the injury to Big Ben which will see him sidelined for this clash rather than any NFL betting triggers.


Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Westgate Advanced Line: Cardinals -1.5
Pinnacle Opening Line (16/10): No Line
The NFL Line will be updated following MNF.


Texans vs. Broncos

Westgate Advanced Line: Broncos -6.5
Bookmaker Opening Line (16/10): Broncos -6.5 (-110)
Although the Broncos lost last week and the Texans won in spectacular fashion there’s no change on the NFL odds board. The Broncos are laying -6.5 at home to the Texans and it looks like early public NFL betting fancies the hosts. So much so that some sportsbooks already hang the Broncos at -8.5 points. If this NFL betting trend continues it’s sure to push the NFL line higher initially and, then, trigger buyback on the Texans which, in turn, will see the line reverse again until Monday Night Football when a likely dramatic avalanche of late week 7 NFL picks (typically, 40% of betting occurs on game day) could cause a significant move. This is definitely a line to watch for your week 7 picks and, importantly, pounce when you see something you like as it could change quickly.


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