Week 7 Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos Picks

Houston Texans players celebrating

Jay Pryce

Thursday, October 20, 2016 6:00 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016 6:00 PM GMT

The Broncos' defense will not make former quarterback Brock Osweiler's homecoming a pleasant experience when the Texans face off against the Texans on Monday Night Football. Check out our value NFL pick and predictions here.

 

Houston Texans (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)          

Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler squares off against his former team in Denver, spotted a touchdown in the betting market. It’s the second-highest spread Houston has faced in head coach Bill O’Brien’s three-year tenure.

Osweiler is going to need much help from his O-line to hang a bunch of points. They starred in the 26-23 win over the Colts last Sunday, but will be up against the NFL’s fiercest pass rush. Linebacker Von Miller and company lead the league with 21 sacks.

Houston’s 18.0 points per game are more than only the Bears (16.8) and Jets (15.8). Big-play wide receiver Will Fuller may provide a boost, expected to return from a two-game absence due to a hamstring injury.

After allowing 26 points total through the first two weeks, the defense has given up 20 or more in each of their last four games. Stopping the run is the main issue, yielding 141.5 total rushing yards per game during this span. Denver averages 117.9 per game in its last 10 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

 Denver Broncos (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

Despite winning the Super Bowl last season with Denver, Osweiler chose the Texans as his home in free agency. The Denver defense is loaded with motivation and have a primary target. In advance of the game, linebacker Brandon Marshall told TheDenverChannel.com, “I am happy he got paid. But it’s competition. We want to kill him.”

Head coach Gary Kubiak will be on the sidelines after taking a week off under doctor’s orders. The Broncos are 6-3 SU as home chalk under the former Texans coach, but just 2-7 against the spread. They’re playing 4.3 points below the number under these conditions.

Denver’s offense isn’t the most efficient, despite scoring near the league average in points (23.3 per game).  It’s 5.1 yards per play rank 27th in the NFL, gathering just 323.3 total yards per game.

 

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos 

The Broncos have not lost three games in a row since 2011, and we do not expect them to here. The spread is a bit much given Denver averages 22.5 points per game under Kubiak. In the last calendar year, though, Houston is averaging 15.0 points in four games as a road underdog, and Osweiler is one of the league’s worst passers under pressure. It could be a long night for the Houston offense, and Denver's unit may not need to do too much to cover the number. Play Houston team total Under 17.5 points as the free NFL week 7 pick. If that wager is not available at your sportsbook, buy down a half point and take Denver -6.5.

 

Free NFL Pick: Texans Team Total Under -17.5 & Broncos -6.5 on the buyNFL 2016-17: 26-13 (avg. odds, -107)

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