Sportsbooks have been taking a beating with favorites going 8-6 against the spread last week and 9-7 the week prior. Favorites have only covered 45.26 percent this season. Will that trend continue into Week 7 action?
On Sunday, it seemed like there were no noteworthy upsets in Week 6 play. Then, the Tennessee Titans took care of business against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night in the shocker of the Week 6 slate.
Favorites have only covered the spread 45.26 percent of the time this season but if you look specifically at road favorites, there's been some profit. Road favorites are 21-17 ATS after going 6-1 in Week 6.
The general public is always going to back the favorite because the favorite is viewed as the better team. Betting on favorites all the time isn't the most profitable long-term venture, but it was the best week for public bettors all season long. This kind of success won't last.
Here's a look at three games for which prevailing trends might play a major role in how bettors approach the matchup (Odds via DraftKings).
Bengals vs. Ravens Trend: Baltimore is 8-1 ATS vs. AFC North Opponents
The Baltimore Ravens are playing spectacular football right now. They came back from down 16 in the fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts two weeks ago. Then, last week, the Ravens absolutely dominated a Los Angeles Chargers team that was getting a lot of love throughout the week.
Baltimore is red hot right now with a 5-1 record. They've also owned that AFC North by covering the spread in eight of their last nine games against division opponents.
At home, the Ravens are under a touchdown favorite and will be bet heavily, especially in teasers. Betting the Ravens against the Bengals is a bit tricky, but the trends say what they say. The Ravens can absolutely win the game by a touchdown or more.
Verdict: Ravens -6 (-110)
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Jets vs. Patriots Trend: Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record
It seems everyone is down on New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick this season. But the one thing Belichick has done well over his career is beat up bad teams. He outsmarts coaches on inferior clubs and always seems to have the perfect game plan against them. The Jets are used to getting smacked around by Belichick.
The Pats are seemingly always prepared against overmatched teams, particularly in front of the home crowd. And let's face it, the Jets are one of the worst outfits in the NFL this year.
New England is 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record. It doesn't get more losing than the Jets' 1-4 mark.
Verdict: Patriots -6.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs. Titans Trend: Over is 7-0-1 in Titans' last 8 games in October
The Titans just defeated the Bills, on the road, on Monday Night Football in an absolute shootout. The Titans offense can be really good, even with Julio Jones expected to miss time again with an injury.
The Chiefs haven't proven anything on the defensive end this year, allowing 29.3 points per game. The Titans defense also ranks poorly, allowing 26.8 points per game. Both offenses are capable of gaining over 400 yards of offense and neither defense is all that impressive.
The Titans have been hitting overs in October for quite some time now. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 4-0 to the Over when allowing less than 15 points in the previous game. The line seems a bit short knowing what these offenses are capable of.
Verdict: Over 57 (-110)
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