Week 6 Trends& Angles to Consider

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 10, 2017 2:53 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2017 2:53 PM UTC

This is the time of year when extreme NFL betting trends start to retreat to the mean. Is your team undefeated? Watch out. Winless? Don’t fret. Here are a few angles worth considering in Week 6.

Bet ‘Over’ on Extreme ‘Under’ Teams

The average score for a Dolphins game in 2017 is 27.0 points. That’s 18.1 points below an average 45.1 total. Now, Miami’s played one less game than most teams, since Hurricane Irma forced officials to reschedule its season opener versus the Buccaneers for Week 11. But it would take the highest scoring game in NFL history to buoy the over-under margin into the single-digit realm.

With a trend so lopsided, it’s time to start looking the other way. Reversion to the mean is guaranteed, and it’s likely to start at the Falcons this weekend. Since 1990, 28 teams have entered Week 6 with an over-under margin south of 10 points per game. They have gone over the total 19 times.

Miami, behind veteran replacement quarterback Jay Cutler, ranks last in a slew of offensive categories, including points (.173) and yards (3.9) per play. The unit hasn’t tallied 20 points in any of its last six games. The team has faced some overwhelming scheduling circumstances to begin the year, traveling over 15,000 miles and playing in five different cities, including London. Look for the offense to find a spark in Atlanta. The ‘over’ is 11-1 in the Falcons’ last 12 home games with a 60.0 average score. Opponents account for 25.8 points, and all but one visitor has scored 24 or more in this stretch.

Undefeated No More?

The Chiefs are the only undefeated NFL team remaining with a 5-0 record. How long will the win streak last? Not long according to past trends, and the end could come this weekend. Since 1989, including bye weeks, 26 teams have entered Week 6 with a perfect record. They are 16-10 SU and 10-16 ATS. Kansas City hosts the Steelers at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, lying 4 points in the potential playoff-preview contest. These NFL odds signal danger. When going off as 5.5-point favorites or less, the undefeated are 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS. Taking the betting market out of the equation, the records are nearly identical against opponents with 3 wins or more at 7-8 SU and 6-9 ATS. Pittsburgh is not crisp, but still 3-2 SU overall and finding ways to win games. Other trends point to the Chiefs underachieving in this spot as well. Put K.C. on upset alert.

Support the Winless

Teams entering Week 6 winless on the season are 36-23-2 ATS (61 percent). The Giants, 49ers, and Browns apply this Sunday. Which loser is best for a cover this weekend? Possibly each one. Road underdogs spotted more than 6 points on the oddsboard are 15-5-2 ATS in this spot. All three teams are catching double digits. New York opened as 9-point pups at the Broncos, the line bet up to +12 in early wagering. Cleveland and San Francisco are catching 10 points each in their respective clashes at the Texans and Redskins. 

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