Week 6 Too Risky to Bet: Cats and Cowboys Don't Mix Well

Thursday, October 11, 2018 3:19 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018 3:19 PM UTC

Week 6 brings another game that leaves us dazed and confused as to which team to back. So, rather than manufacture an opinion for the Jacksonville-Dallas game, we’ll stay sharp and grab a play on the total.

Jacksonville at DallasSunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)If You Must Bet: UnderBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

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The NFL odds board initially reflected Jacksonville as an ever-so-slight -1 road favorite, but then the money came in on the Jags and now most of the majors have tagged them as three-point favorites. I was slightly leaning Jags when the line came out but now this is just a non-starter for me.

First and foremost, Blake Bortles scares the hell outta me and he should terrify you anytime you bet the Jags. Particularly when one considers that the Cowboys possess a solid defensive front that should be able to penetrate a weak Jacksonville offensive line. On the flip side, Dallas has the better quarterback in Dak Prescott but the Jags' formidable defense should create chaos and mayhem all afternoon long against an offensive line that is no longer among the elite.

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Coach Marrone will try to revamp the offense's running game with the addition of @jcharles25 and @D_will33. pic.twitter.com/7bPaotL2RK

— #DUUUVAL (@Jaguars) October 10, 2018

Jacksonville has not been nearly as stout defending the run, which should give Ezekiel Elliot room to roam. Not much room, mind you, but enough to keep the clock ticking and making this matchup a slow grind. Dallas is also among the leaders in sacks, which makes me shiver when thinking about Bortles scrambling and dumping the rock like it’s radioactive. This seems like a big ol’ mess to me despite the fact that the Cowboys have just one interception on the season.

What makes far more sense is including the total in my NFL picks for this game where defense should rule. Yes, the "under" is a low 40½ but not low enough to dissuade me from plunking a few bucks on what should be a field-goal kicker's dream. If you’re looking for proof, check out the trends heading into this one with the "under" clicking to the tune of 5-0 in the Cowboys’ last five games following an ATS win, 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last four games vs. a team with a winning record, and 12-2 in the Cowboys’ last 14 games overall. On the flip side we find that the "under" is equally attractive where it is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last four games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, and 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last six games following a straight-up loss.

Skip the side on this one and get down on the total, because this one could go either way but we know that the defenses should prevail. So go low on this matchup and cash that ticket!

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