Week 6 NFL Trends to Beat the Books: If You Ain’t First, You‘re Last

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 9, 2018 1:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018 1:24 PM UTC

Ricky Bobby beats the books by studying up on these Week 6 NFL betting situations and trends. You've got to learn to drive with the fear. 

If You Ain’t First, You‘re Last

The Giants, Falcons, Colts, Raiders, Cardinals, and 49ers, currently last in their respective divisions, each own a single victory this season. Blame it on poor defense. All but one team allows 24.5 points or more per game: Arizona. Franchises with a single victory and a defense surrendering fewer points headed into Week 6 are 37-18-2 ATS (67.3 percent) since the introduction of the salary cap in 1994.

Save Me Tom Cruise!

In this case, save me Tom Brady. The future Hall of Fame QB has led the Patriots offense to 76 points over the last pair of games. He’s accumulated 70 points or more 52 times in consecutive clashes in his career. Past trends suggest the offense will keep rolling. The ‘over’ is 36-15-1 (70.6 percent) in the follow-up effort, New England averaging 33.1 points. At Gillette Stadium, the record improves to 22-4 (84.6 percent) with the Patriots posting 35.3 per tilt. They host the Chiefs in a potential AFC playoff preview in Week 6.

About that Cowboys Offense….

Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is 11-17 SU and 8-18-2 ATS (30.8 percent) in his career squaring off against a scoring defense allowing fewer than 20.0 points per game. Jacksonville enters yielding 17.2 per contest. Dallas averages 18.9 points in this spot and currently ranks 30th in the NFL in points (16.6 ppg). Now, where is that first coach fired prop?

About that Redskins Defense….

The Saints thrashed Washington 43-19 Monday night in a record-setting performance by QB Drew Brees. When the Redskins surrender 24 points or more to an opponent under head coach Jay Gruden, the ‘over’ is 22-13 (62.9 percent) next time out. When they square off against a team rushing 25.2 times or more per game on the year under these conditions, the mark improves to 19-5 (79.2 percent) overall. Carolina is the second-most run-heavy team in the NFL with 30.5 attempts per contest.

Shake and Bake

Rookie QB Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT on 25-of-34 passes in Cleveland’s 12-9 overtime win against the Ravens Sunday. Look for the offense to continue to blossom. The ‘over’ is 11-4 (73.3 percent) in the last 15 games following a Cleveland signal-caller tossing for more than 315 yards in a contest. The Browns average 23.3 points per game in this spot with an average 51.8 combined points.

Ravens Will Fly

The ‘over’ is 11-4 (73.3 percent) when John Harbaugh’s Ravens tally 10 points or fewer in their prior outing. The squad rebounds for 22.5 points per game, averaging 1.7 more than projected. Ravens will travel to Tennessee this Sunday to take on the Titans.

NFC South Defense Will Travel

Road teams in NFC South divisional matchups are 55-37-3 ATS (59.8 percent) all-time when allowing more points on the year than the home team. The Buccaneers enter Atlanta with the worst scoring defense in the NFL, yielding 34.8 points per game. The Falcons are a close second with 32.6 allowed. This matchup is not for the purists.

I Don’t Know What to do With My Hands

The fact WR DeAndre Hopkins led the NFL with nine receptions last week is probably a bad sign for Texans backers this week. When the sixth-year pro nabs eight or more in a game, Houston is 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS (28.6 percent) next time out. This includes four of five straight-up defeats at NRG Stadium.

Overvalued?

Teams headed into Week 6 owning an average margin of victory greater than a touchdown and laying points on the road are just 27-26 SU and 21-32 ATS (39.6 percent) since 1989. They kick off a -5.1 average favorite in this spot. Put the Rams, Bears, and Ravens on upset alert?

Bengals Bungle

Marvin Lewis is just 8-10 SU and 6-11-1 ATS (35.2 percent) at Paul Brown Stadium in his career in games with a line in-between 4 points on the NFL oddsboard when the Bengals own a better scoring offense than their opponent does. Cincy enters with the fourth best scoring unit in the NFL (30.6 ppg), while the Steelers rank one position behind (28.6 ppg).

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