Week 6 NFL Picks: Where Are the Sharps Betting?

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, October 12, 2014 2:09 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 12, 2014 2:09 PM UTC

Every week right before kick off, we here at SBR take time to dive deep into our Consensus data, to find out where the sharps might be placing their bets this week. The NFL Odds are all but settled, but with some extra info, there might still be NFL Picks value available. 

Patriots vs. Bills
The Patriots are heading into Buffalo this week, a tougher game than a lot of people are giving credit to. After their demolition of the Bengals last week, everyone is quickly jumping back on the Tom Brady train. However the sharps may be looking at this week a little differently. The NFL odds have the Patriots -1 or even -1 ½ favorites on the road here, but according to our data, it looks as if two of every three dollars being wagered on this game are going to the Bills taking points at home. The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games dating back to last season, and with Kyle Orton set to start again, Buffalo has more value than most suggest. Buffalo is also 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog between ½ and 3 points. Don’t just follow the crowd with this one. There still might be some kinks to iron out of this Patriots offense, and I am not that confident in their ability to put on another good game here.

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Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Even though I expect this game to be pretty high scoring, that doesn’t mean it won’t be a blow out in the end. That seems to be the sharp’s NFL odds consensus this week, because despite the NFL Picks of this game being pretty evenly divided between the two teams, the money is far from even. According to our SBR Consensus data, the Seahawks are taking over 90% of the money being wagered on this game. On top of that, there are several big bets on the loop for the Hawks, while no one is laying over $1000 on the Cowboys here. At +8 ½, their NFL odds seem intriguing, but going on the road into Seattle might lend itself to a blowout here. I would play it safe and go with a total wager instead of wasting your hard-earned money on the Cowboys. You might find yourself a lot happier by the end of Sunday.

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Giants vs. Eagles
While I’m not quite on board with the other two “sharp plays,” this week, the data is showing that the Giants may be the sharps’ darlings this week as well. I cannot agree more. Right now the NFL odds have the Eagles as -2 ½, or even -3 favorites at home against the Giants, but with their pass protection issues, the Giants’ front seven might feast on the road here. On top of that, Eli Manning might feast as well going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the entire NFL this week. It’s a Sunday night game, the Giants are playing better, and it looks as if the sharps realize this. The Giants are taking over 60% of the bets and money this game is bringing in so far this week, and I cannot agree more. It might be time later tonight to add the G-Men to your NFL Picks.

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