Week 6 NFL Picks of the Day, incl. a 3-Pick Totals Parlay

Darin Zank

Sunday, October 12, 2014 11:57 AM GMT

This expert NFL handicapper shares his top three most valuable picks ATS for the day, as well as a three-pick parlay on the 'overs' on the Packers-Dolphins, the Browns-Steelers and the Falcons-Bears.

 

Browns PK/47 vs. Steelers
Cardiac Cleveland, at 2-2, hosts 3-2 Pittsburgh.

The Browns have played some crazy games already this season; two have gone their way, and two haven't. Last week Cleveland fell behind Tennessee 28-3, then rallied to win 29-28. So who should we consider the real Browns? The team that came back from 25 points down to win? Or are the team that fell behind by 25 in the first place?

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 3-2, but should be 4-1, after blowing that late lead and losing to Tampa Bay a couple weeks ago. The Steelers rebounded last week to win and cover at Jacksonville.

Cleveland ranks third in the league in rushing at 142 yards per game, but 29th against the run, allowing 153 YPG. Pittsburgh ranks eighth in rushing at 137 YPG, and 11th against the run, at 100 YPG.

So far this season teams that have outrushed their opponents are 52-23 ATS.

Finally, the Steelers beat the Browns 30-27 back in Week 1, bursting out to a 27-3 lead, then kicking a field goal at the buzzer to win it. Pittsburgh outgained Cleveland that day 503-389.

Free NFL Pick: Steelers +1 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290640, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Broncos -10.5/47.5 at Jets
Denver, off to a 3-1 start, heads East to take on 1-4 New York at MetLife Stadium.

The Broncos are only 1-3 ATS, because they allowed the Colts to rally back in Week 1 for a back-door cover, and couldn't cover a big number at home against the Chiefs. Now they're being asked to cover double-digits on the road, and regardless of the opponent, that's almost always a tough task in the NFL.

Yes, the Jets stink, but there are two things they can do fairly well; they rank sixth in rushing at 139 YPG and sixth against the run, allowing just 83 YPG. And as mentioned above, winning the ground battle goes a long way toward covering spreads in the NFL.

Denver is still very likely to win this game, but if New York can avoid making mistakes, get the running game going and control some clock, it can keep this one close. It would help to hit Manning a few times, too.

Free NFL Pick: Jets +10 at Bovada

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290642, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Packers 3/49 at Dolphins
Green Bay, 3-2 with two wins in a row, visits sultry Miami to play the 2-2 Dolphins.

The Packers, for the most part, have been very one-dimensional on offense so far this season; they rank just 25th in rushing at 90 yards per game, after averaging 134 YPG last year. Something ain't right. And defensively Green Bay ranks dead last vs. the run, giving up 163 YPG on the ground. That is not a number conducive to winning games or covering spreads in the NFL.

Miami, meanwhile, ranks fourth in rushing at 142 YPG, and 12th vs. the run, holding foes to 107 YPG. Also, the Dolphins had last week off, after beating Oakland in London two weeks ago 38-14.

Miami will try to run the ball, to keep Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense off the field, and there's little reason to believe that strategy won't work. That Green Bay defense has been bending all season, and may break in the South Florida heat.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +3.5 at Bovada

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290644, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

NFL Three-Pick Totals Parlay
So far this season the bottom five teams ranked against the run – Green Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, St. Louis and Atlanta – are a combined 15-7 on the totals. So for our three-pick parlay we'll take three OVERS, on the Packers-Dolphins (48.5), the Browns-Steelers (47) and the Falcons-Bears (54.5).

Good luck with your NFL picks!

More Week 6 NFL Betting Advice of Your Interest:

NFL Betting 5-Pack of Value Picks for Week 6

Special Props for Week 6 NFL Picks 

Best Over/Under NFL Picks for Week 6

Predicting All Week 6 Winners on the Money Line