Week 6 NFL Picks: Sunday Betting Ticket

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 11, 2014 7:54 PM GMT

After sweeping his Sunday 3-pack of NFL picks in Week 4, Jason Lake did it again in Week 5 to wash away all that red ink. He’s going right back into the frying pan with his first pick for Week 6: the Jets.

Jason’s record after Week 5: 19-16 ATS, 5-7-1 Totals

Profit: plus-0.1 units
 

It’s good to be back on the right side of the tracks for our NFL picks. The first few weeks of the 2014 NFL season weren’t particularly kind to us, but things have evened out since then – almost literally, looking at our results so far. This is a good spot to be in. Every team has at least four games under its belt; that’s enough games to give us some useful data for our handicapping purposes, but not enough games to fully expose everyone’s strengths and weaknesses. Let’s see if we can ride this sweet spot and keep crushing the NFL odds.
 

Sunday: Denver vs. N.Y. Jets (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Has everyone here at the ranch gone insane? Possibly, but that’s what they said when we started betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after that horrible 56-14 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. We’re applying the same “buy low” NFL betting strategy this week. The Jets (1-4 SU, 0-4-1 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing 31-0 loss to the San Diego Chargers on the West Coast. It doesn’t get much rock-bottomier than that.

The betting public has given us a big helping hand with this matchup. Denver (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) opened this game as a 6-point road chalk, but as we go to press, that point spread has moved to as high as 10 points on our football odds board. That can happen when 96 percent of the action falls on one side. We are the four percent~!

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Jets +10 (–125) at 5Dimes

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Sunday: Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
There might be a ton of money on Denver this week, but according to our expanded consensus reports, the Buccaneers (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) are this week’s hottest commodity, with an average bet size of $804. Who’s crazy now? The sharps, that’s who. The Ravens (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) might have nearly 62 percent of bettors on their side, but their average bet size is just $49. That’s barely enough to buy fish-‘n’-chips for the family.

Again, we’re getting a pretty good deal on the Bucs. They opened as +3.5 home faves, and they’re still +3.5 at press time despite all that money on their side. Expect to see some of that gap filled in by the public this weekend, even if it’s a Ulysses S. Grant here and a Ulysses S. Grant there. Hmmm… Grant’s not doing so well on the presidential DVOA charts, is he? Still ahead of Warren G. Harding, though.

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Buccaneers +3.5 (–105) at SIA

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Sunday: Washington vs. Arizona (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)
We were on Arizona (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) last week against the Broncos, but then a funny thing happened: Drew Stanton got a concussion. Okay, not that funny. But it looks like the Cardinals will have their pick between Stanton and Carson Palmer at quarterback this week. At the very least, if third-string QB Logan Thomas does end up starting, he’ll have had time to prepare.

Besides, it’s Washington (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS). We’ve already used up our “tire fire” references for the year, so we invite you instead to look at Washington’s injury list. The Cards aren’t the healthiest team in the world, but c’mon. It’s a miracle half these guys can even walk. They might resist changing their team name, but at this rate, they’re going to have to change sports from tackle football to flag football. It’s probably inevitable anyway.

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Cardinals –3.5 (+101) at Matchbook

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