Last week was another winning week as we watched the lines drift far enough to where it gave us excellent value in our NFL picks. Let’s see what is in store for us in Week 6 and keep on making money!
Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1 to +3)
Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 pm ET at TIAA Bank Field
Here we have two bad defenses opposing each other, which is quite a fall from grace for the Jaguars, a team that only a few years ago was known for their tenacious pass rush and a stingy pass defense.
The Lions look dangerous because Kenny Golladay is back in uniform, giving Matthew Stafford something to work with in terms of elite targets. Detroit also upset the Cardinals a few weeks ago in the desert and followed that with rallying against the Saints last week before falling short. The public has a short-term memory and bases many of their decisions on a “what have you done for me lately” mentality.
Well, the Jags should have two of their top defensive players back on the field when linebacker Myles Jack and cornerback C.J. Henderson return. This will give Jacksonville a big boost and should help slow down the Lions’ offense.
Speaking of the Lions, who are they to be spotting anyone a three-point head start in hostile territory? A quick scan of the NFL odds tells me that we are now getting some serious value with the Jags +3 after this game opened with Detroit favored by only a point. Let’s grab the generous head start, that we might not even need anyway, and watch the Jags, at the very least, cover the number.
Houston Texans (+2 ½ to +3 ½) vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 pm ET at Nissan Stadium
Was it all that surprising that the Texans looked as good as they have all season last week in dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars? No, not because of who they played but of the baggage they lost – former head coach, Bill O’Brien. Apparently, O’Brien and JJ Watt got into a verbal altercation, had it been physical Watt would have been spending this weekend in a correctional facility rather than a billion-dollar sports facility. Well, it didn’t take long for management to pick sides and O’Brien was the odd man out, much to the delight of his players who finally showed up and played a decent game of football.
Now the Texans will have a much stouter opponent in the Tennessee Titans, a team hot off the heels of devouring the Bills in Buffalo to the tune of a 42-16 victory. This looks like a trap game to me as Tennessee will still be basking in the afterglow of their big road win while taking a peek ahead to their game against the Steelers next week.
The line has drifted only one point but it crosses the most critical number in all of football – the magical number three. The Texans have won and covered two of the last three against Tennessee and we should never underestimate the competitiveness of a divisional game. Get on over to YouWager and take advantage of this very attractive number.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+7 ½ to +10)
Sunday, October 18th, 1:00 pm ET at Lincoln Financial Field
The squares would lay 100 points on Baltimore over the hapless Eagles if they had to because that’s just what squares do. They consistently lay terrible numbers but every year they wonder why the sportsbooks eat them up and swallow them whole.
Baltimore has looked solid in every game this season except their 34-20 loss to the Chiefs. The Eagles should not pose much of a threat despite a decent offensive performance against Pittsburgh last week in their 38-29 setback. But if you look at Philadelphia’s games this season, they really have yet to be blown out.
I could very easily envision a backdoor cover against the Ravens, a team that will be looking ahead to their bye next week followed by a date with the Steelers when they return to action. We’re getting a double-digit start with the home team in our NFL picks, so why not take it?
Last Chance Value Pick: Eagles +10 (-120) at Bovada