Week 6 NFL Picks: Game-by-Game Against the Spread Predictions

SBR Staff

Wednesday, October 10, 2018 10:32 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2018 10:32 PM UTC

Here's an NFL Week 6 betting cheat sheet. Each week of the season, you will find the entire slate with picks ATS and each capper's quick-hitting reasoning. SBR also will have full previews of each week's prime-time and marquee games.

Opening NFL Spread: Philadelphia -3Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

EAGLES

Doug Upstone: Thursday night affair is not best game on Week 6 docket. With Philadelphia at this low a favorite and the Giants cannot run the ball, the Eagles are equipped to cover the number.

Kevin Stott: G-Men 3-1 ATS L4 in series but Wentz 12-4 his L16 starts and the defending NFL champs are #1 in Time of Possession again, very mad and have Jeffery back so backing the Birds over the G-Men.

GIANTS

Matthew Jordan: I don’t love this pick, and I’d recommend an alternate line of Giants at +3.5, but maybe they found something offensively Sunday in Carolina. Iggles now have lost Jay Ajayi (ACL).

Swinging Johnson: Giants lost both meetings last year to the Eagles but covered the number in each. This year the talent gap between the 2 has closed and Big Blue’s offense finally got on track last week.

Rainman: Eagles suffering from Super Bowl hangover, four straight non-covers, lackluster O. Giants’ offense looked much improved last week after Odell voiced criticism. Giants 3-1 L4 ATS against Eagles.

Opening NFL Spread: Atlanta -3.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

BUCS

Rainman: Falcons’ D is riddled with injury, have allowed 37+ points in three straight contests. Jameis gives Tampa Bay a much more stable option at quarterback. He’ll have no problem keeping his team in it.

FALCONS

Matthew Jordan: If this isn’t highest-scoring game of the week, I’ll eat one of my shoes. Two atrocious defenses. Bucs have advantage off coming off a bye, but take Matt Ryan over Jameis Winston.

Kevin Stott: The Bucs blow in October (39-62-3 ATS L10 years) and Matt and Julio down by the schoolyard won this game last year, 34-20 (-10) and may win by the same exact score. Falcons 1-7 ATS after TB.

Doug Upstone: There are serious defensive issues for Atlanta that do not appear that will disappear. Yet, Tampa Bay has nine turnovers in past three games. Is Jameis Winston going to fix this problem?

Swinging Johnson: Atlanta is the best 1-4 team known to man but they’re just not as good as everyone expected before the season began. The offense is still explosive and will be too much for the Bucs.

Opening NFL Spread: Cincinnati -2.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

STEELERS

Doug Upstone: Even though it is incredibly tempting to go against Pittsburgh against Cincinnati, but Steelers are 23-5 SU and 20-7-1 ATS in the Queen City. The Bengals often beat themselves here.

Kevin Stott: Bangles (8-0 ATS L8 vs AFC) playing well but without C Price and Steelers 12-1-1 L14 on Road. It scares me that Cincy is an NFL-worst 40-66 ATS the L10 Octobers (37.7%), but Carrot Top also scares me.

BENGALS

Matthew Jordan: Starting to buy the Bengals. They will end six-game losing streak in series. Steelers have failed to cover past eight after win. Will be last game without Le’Veon Bell barring trade.

Rainman: Steelers offense flowed from rush attack, but Conner is unproven against a run defense that isn’t weak or decimated with injury. Burfict’s return makes strong difference in favor of Bengals’ defense.

Swinging Johnson: The public will be swooning over Steelers after last week’s demolition of the Falcons but the Cats present a much more imposing defense and will show who’s boss in the AFC North.

Opening NFL Spread: LA Chargers -1Best Line Offered: BetOnline

CHARGERS

Doug Upstone: Cleveland expects to be in every game now and they should with improved defense and Baker Mayfield. However, the Browns are 1-10 ATS vs. teams with 64% or higher completion percentage.

Swinging Johnson: Tough to pick against the undefeated Browns at home but Bolts have too many offensive weapons and just enough defense to get the win on the road vs. improving Cleveland squad.

BROWNS

Matthew Jordan: Cleveland’s lone win in the 2016-17 seasons was at home against these Bolts. One of those tough 10 a.m. Pacific time starts for L.A., which is 0-4 ATS in its past four after a cover.

Rainman: Browns D hasn’t allowed more than 21 points at home, rank first in takeaways. Baker can succeed against the Chargers. They rank 24th in opposing passer rating. Browns will win turnover battle.

Kevin Stott: What can [The] Brown(s) do for you? Not cover ATS. Though off to a 3-1 ATS start, Cleveland’s last winning year ATS was in 2014 (9-6-1), but at 6-0 ATS L6 vs the Bolts and 3-0 ATS L3 at FirstEnergy.

Opening NFL Spread: Seattle -2.5Best Line Offered: Bovada

SEAHAWKS

Matthew Jordan: Too bad the folks in London are subjected to these bad teams. Seattle played the Rams really tough on Sunday and has covered 10 of its past 15 after a loss. It will here barely.

Rainman: London game. Carson taking lead role in Seattle O, should have big game vs. Raiders bottom-ranked run D. Seahawks improved since MNF vs Bears. Raiders only three road covers since 2017.

Doug Upstone: Does Oakland need to go all the way to London to lose again? Derek Carr is turning into his older brother David. Seattle is 16-6 ATS after scoring and allowing 30+ points.

Swinging Johnson: NFL imported a stinker to London as this is between two of the league’s dregs. Seahawks are lost on defense w/o Thomas but better than Raiders offensively. Russell Wilson the difference.

RAIDERS

Kevin Stott: Old AFC west rivalry was moved from not-ready Tottenham to Wembley. With this London site and these two, points may be scarce. Without Mack, Oakland now NFL’s worst at rushing Passer.

Opening NFL Spread: Chicago -3Best Line Offered: Heritage

BEARS

Matthew Jordan: Chicago coming off its bye; did the Bears lose all that momentum from a 48-10 Week 4 rout of the Bucs? Doubt it. The Dolphins aren’t good and are 1-6-1 ATS in past 8 after a loss.

Doug Upstone: Miami's been proven a fraud and faces a hungry Bears team off and bye with something to show. The Dolphins are 6-22 ATS after surrendering 400 or more yards in three straight games.

Swinging Johnson: Chicago has had 2 weeks to prepare for the free-falling Fish. Trubisky should have little problem getting the ball into the endzone and Bears No. 2 defense will handle the anemic Miami offense.

Kevin Stott: Tannehill 11-2 SU L13 as starter but Trubisky blossoming like Pamela Anderson on Baywatch. Bears (3-1 ATS L4 at MIA) better on Road than Home and have Mack now to make opposition miserable.

DOLPHINS

Rainman: Dolphins getting disrespected, Bears overrated after pummeling Fitzjoker. No way Trubisky should be favored away. Dolphins D top seven in opp. YPC and opp. passer rating. Take home dog.

Opening NFL Spread: Minnesota -10.5Best Line Offered: Intertops

CARDINALS

Matthew Jordan: Remember the last time the Vikings were big home faves vs. a really bad team? They won’t lose again, but the Cardinals can stay within 10. Vikes 1-4 ATS in past 5 after a win.

Rainman: Let-down spot for Vikings after revenge win against Eagles, now heavily favored at home. Cards defense has held its last three opponents below 20 points and enjoys a three-game cover streak.

Swinging Johnson: Too many points to ignore so side with dog here and a decent Zona pass defense against a one-dimensional Vikings attack. Minny could be due for letdown after beating world champs.

VIKINGS

Doug Upstone: Nice first victory for Arizona, but a tough spot for a second road game in row. Minnesota had a quality win at Philly and Cards' 31st ranked pass game will not expose Vikings secondary.

Kevin Stott: Cardinals hoped former Vikings QB Bradford could help, but Rookie Rosen looks to be the guy. Minnesota is 6-2-1 ATS L9 vs AZ and needs this one after 2 early L’s (BUF, RAMS) and a Tie (GB).

Opening NFL Spread: Indianapolis -2.5Best Line Offered: YouWager

COLTS

Rainman: Jets have solid pass D numbers, but have faced Stafford, Tannehill, Taylor, Bortles, Keenum … in other words, nobody. Luck will challenge this secondary. Colts also pose much stronger run D than Denver.

Swinging Johnson: Colts will have 10 days to prepare for the Jets and despite NY’s scoring outburst in their win over Denver, we’ll side with the Colts to win outright off of a huge game by Luck.

JETS

Matthew Jordan: Colts on extra rest, but it seemed like half their team was injured last Thursday at Pats. The Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home after knocking off Denver Sunday.

Kevin Stott: Hate this one more than fact Volkswagen won’t make Beetles anymore. Earth without [The] Beatles or Beetles and beetles killing Trees? Jets 3-1 ATS L4 vs Indy. Luck needs a shave. Or cowboy hat.

Doug Upstone: The Jets showed their offensive potential when everything clicked as it did against Denver. Indianapolis is a sorry 0-7 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.

Opening NFL Spread: Washington -2Best Line Offered: JustBet

PANTHERS

Matthew Jordan: Short week for Washington after ugly loss in the Big Easy. Carolina, off a miracle win over the Giants, is 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road after consecutive home games.

Swinging Johnson: Cam and Co. getting their offense on lately and that spells trouble for the Redskins coming off a beating by the Saints. Washington circling the drain while Cats off inspired win.

Rainman: Skins O has major issues. 18 second-half points all season! They can’t string two good halves together and often look disinterested. They won’t stop balanced Carolina attack in front of "fans."

Doug Upstone: When Washington can take away the run they can win. However, that would seem to be an issue with Carolina No.1 in the NFL in rushing. The Redskins are who they are, not a very good team.

REDSKINS

Kevin Stott: Cats 5-2 ATS L7 at Washington and 4-0 ATS L4 in series but Smith’s been a breath of fresh air for the Redskins. So, Heads is Washington, Tails is Carolina, and if it lands on its bleeding edge, I jump.

Opening NFL Spread: Houston -8.5Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

BILLS

Doug Upstone: Buffalo has no passing game and is getting by running the ball and generating turnovers. Houston has played five close games in a row, can they handle a bigger spread? Not this time!

Swinging Johnson: Can someone tell me why Houston is giving up all these points when they have just 1 ATS cover all year? Bills aren’t great but certainly able to hang within double digits of middling Texans.

TEXANS

Matthew Jordan: Bills aren’t going to keep pulling upsets with Josh Allen throwing for 82 yards. Houston has won back-to-back games for first time in 2 years and covered three of past four in series.

Kevin Stott: Texans are 3-10 ATS L13 but 3-1 ATS L4 meetings vs Bills in Houston. After four weeks, Buffalo’s leading rusher was QB Allen (116 yards). Cowboy Zeke had 152 yards rushing vs Lions in Week 4.

Rainman: Spread seems large, but isn’t really. All three Buffalo losses have been by double-digits. Only wins came from Vikings looking ahead and Titans let-down spot. Houston will stay focused and cover.

Opening NFL Spread: LA Rams -7Best Line Offered: GT Bets

RAMS

Doug Upstone: Denver is 4-15 ATS the past two years and they just gave up 512 yards to a pedestrian Jets offense. The Rams run roughshod over the Broncos, who are 1-8 ATS after two or more setbacks.

Swinging Johnson: It’s fair to say the Mile High mystique has vanished and the Broncos are no longer intimidating on defense. Rams can score through the air or on the ground and Denver won’t stop them.

Kevin Stott: Can Denver’s D stop Rams (34.6 ppg, #2) juggernaut? The Broncos have dynamic duo of rookie RBs (Freeman, Lindsay) but Goff has Cooks, Kupp and Woods & traveling by Air faster than by Land.

BRONCOS

Matthew Jordan: Feels like trap game for Rams, who nearly lost Sunday in Seattle. Altitude, sandwiched in between games vs. division rivals. Denver nearly upset Kansas City in a similar scenario.

Rainman: Broncos are Jekyll/Hyde depending on whether home or away. In Denver we get the team that nearly beat the Chiefs. Rams D 29th in opp. rush YPC, Denver is run-first w/Freeman and Lindsay.

Opening NFL Spread: Jacksonville -3Best Line Offered: BetPhoenix

JAGUARS

Doug Upstone: Bad Blake Bortles showed up in K.C. and helped his team get thumped. As long as that doesn't happen again, the Jaguars defense can stop a very limited Dallas offense, even on the road.

Rainman: Don’t worry about big loss to KC. Play-calling was horrendous and numerous goal line chances squandered. Jags won last five games after loss by 20+ points with exception to thorn in side Titans.

COWBOYS

Matthew Jordan: Why didn’t Jerry Jones fire Jason Garrett after that terrible fourth-down OT decision in Houston? Cowboys are 2-0 at home, while Jags are 2-5 ATS in past seven October games.

Kevin Stott: With Fournette (Hamstring) out and Elliott (Knee/Ankle) in, Dallas should be run with the Jags forced to throw. Points should be few and far between. It’s hard to find a better nickname than “Booger.”

Swinging Johnson: Jags are great on defense – yada, yada, yada. But they got torched last week against KC and Blake Bortles is a mess. Good spot for Boyz to get take advantage and get a win at home.

Opening NFL Spread: Baltimore -2.5Best Line Offered: Betmania

RAVENS

Matthew Jordan: Wasn’t buying the Titans and feel vindicated after loss in Buffalo. Their offense just isn’t good enough. Baltimore lost in OT in Cleveland but has covered past 4 after a defeat.

Kevin Stott: After Week 4, Baltimore still hadn’t allowed a TD and just 9 points in the 4Q. That’s special. Titans 5-2-1 ATS L8 in series. Picking this is like an exercise in Fear and Loathing in Capper’s Corner™.

TITANS

Doug Upstone: Just when you think Baltimore and Tennessee could be on the rise, they falter. If the Ravens are -3 at game time, the Titans are the better value play with the Birds on the road again.

Rainman: Titans were in let-down spot last week. Expect them to bounce back. Retooled secondary that ranks 9th in opp. passer rating will limit pass-first Baltimore. Ravens won’t score enough to cover chalk.

Swinging Johnson: Ravens will play their 3rd game on the road and it should be a low scoring grind against the Titans who are undefeated at home. Grab the points with the live home dog here.

Opening NFL Spread: New England -3.5Best Line Offered: Skybook

CHIEFS

Doug Upstone: This Sunday-nighter feels like the changing of the guard. Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS and is 6-0 ATS on road off two straight victories. The Chiefs are now winning in various ways.

PATRIOTS

Matthew Jordan: New England & Tom Brady know how to win these crucial regular-season games, and young QB Patrick Mahomes doesn’t yet. Pats won 10 straight home games by an average of 16 ppg.

Rainman: Pats can gash bottom-ranked Chiefs’ run D with rookie upstart Michel. Don’t forget Brady, whose quick release will obviate Chiefs pass rush. Pats D much more reliable with Chung and Flowers.

Swinging Johnson: Julian Edelman is back for the Pats and the offense was electric last week in their win over Indy. KC defense is putty soft and Mahomes seems to be cooling. Good night for Pats at the Razor.

Kevin Stott: Pats (64-47 ATS October L10 years) welcome Mahomes-boy Pat and Chefs (5-0 SU/ATS start) to The Razor for a game much more important to hosts. NE 20-8-3 ATS (71.4%) L30 as Home chalks.

Opening NFL Spread: Green Bay -9.5Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

49ERS

Matthew Jordan: Statistically, the Niners should have routed Arizona and not lost. Five turnovers will do that. The Pack are just 1-5 ATS in past six vs. the NFC and keep shooting selves in the foot.

Rainman: Big surprise, Rodgers/Packers overvalued at home. This is too many points, don’t trust Packers O to score enough. They rank 20th in points per play. Receivers banged up. Rodgers can’t do it all.

PACKERS

Doug Upstone: Big number on Green Bay, but after last's week's debacle, they come to play. San Francisco is proving with or without Jimmy G, they were overrated. Niners are 1-9 ATS in Weeks 5-9 since 2016.

Swinging Johnson: Can’t imagine Rodgers and boys from the Bay will be happy with their performance vs. the Lions. Gotta take it out on someone and the Niners are next in line. Lay the lumber.

Kevin Stott: No Jimmy G, no chance for 49ers (3-1-1 ATS L5) in Cheesetown where it rains curds and snow is 7% cheddar. Mr. Rodgers & Green Bay please feed us the Green Paper although Love is the new money.

Season ATS: MJ (42-33-3), RM (35-41-2), SJ (35-42-1), DU (37-36-5) , KS (33-42-1)

Survivor Picks: MJ (HOU), RM (CAR), SJ (GB), DU (GB), KS (ATL)

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