Week 6 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 7:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 7:37 PM UTC

This NFL handicapper hit a little road bump against the betting odds with the last couple of weeks picks but still has a winning record. Find out what Week 6 NFL picks he is focusing on.

Cleveland Getting Too Much Credit
Kudos to Cleveland for playing hard under first-year coach Mike Pettine, staying in every game to have a level 2-2 record, with the four games determined by eight total points.

Those making early NFL picks at sportsbooks are enamored with the Browns and moved them from a Pick to -2 against rival Pittsburgh playing at home. While not giving up is admirable, at some point you need to play all four quarters, which Cleveland has not been apt to do very often this season.

Pittsburgh is a team in transition on defense but is showing signs beginning to understand Dick LeBeau’s complicated defense and has taken the run away from opposing teams the past three weeks (53.6 YPG). The Steelers are 34-7 SU against the Browns since 1992 and 14-5 at Cleveland. I think the Brownies are false favorites versus the NFL odds.

NFL False Favorites on Betting Odds: Cleveland

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Seattle a Bloated Favorite
As most any NFL football handicapper would attest, Seattle probably is deserving of being an 8-point home favorite over Dallas. They are the defending Super Bowl champions and are holding up thus far under the weight of expectations this season and play at one of the toughest venues in the NFL.

However, this Dallas crew, at least to this juncture, has a different look about them. The Cowboys are less dependent on Tony Romo overall, with the best offensive line in the league and red-hot back in DeMarco Murray. The makes for a very intriguing battle of wills with the Cowboys No. 2 run defense challenging Seattle’s top-ranked run defense.

We have also seen the vaunted Seahawks pass defense give up big plays for touchdowns and Dez Bryant along with Terrance Williams can make house calls to the end zone.

I am not saying this week's NFL oddsmakers are wrong; I just have the sense Dallas can play well and keep this under a touchdown game, making the Seahawks a bit of a false favorite.

NFL False Favorite: Seattle at Bodog

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Playing a Hunch with Jacksonville
This is kind of a strange week as at the time of this article deadline, three games still lacked sportsbook numbers, making it harder to generate sports picks for this piece.

Nevertheless, Jacksonville will be an underdog at Tennessee whether Jake Locker starts or not. The Jaguars for a second straight season sit at 0-5 SU and ATS and as we know, eventually they will win (I think) and for certain they will beat the spread.

With the Titans off the worst home loss with a lead in NFL history and 0-4 with a 0-3-1 ATS record, this could be the right spot for the Jaguars to finally beat the spread. On Jacksonville’s side is the fact they usually are quite competitive with Tennessee and they are 5-1-1 ATS against them of late.

Let’s take a look at terrible NFL dog to cover the spread.

NFL Betting Odds Underdog with Bite: Jacksonville

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