Each and every week we spot line moves that matter in order to help football bettors make savvy NFL picks to beat the bookies. Let’s get started.
How Has NFL Lines Moved Since Westgate Released Advanced Lines Last Week?
Each week SBR brings you a preview of Westgate Advanced Lines for the following week. That early serving almost always undergoes a reassessment at the close of the weekend’s action, adjusting for key injuries, outcomes that beg to be given their due towards the NFL betting outlook or, even, coaching changes and line-up overhauls.
In the event, we revisit those in this column with week 6 NFL betting already underway and dissect any major line moves to spot – typically using opening lines from high limit takers Pinnacle and Bookmaker that attract a bevy of bettors including sharp bettors – that could make the difference towards your choice week 6 NFL picks.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Broncos vs. Chargers
Advanced Line: Broncos -3
Opening Line (10/09): Broncos -2.5
The Chargers simply can’t catch a break no matter how hard they try. The Chargers go into Thursday Night Football with a 1-4 SU record after yet another late game collapse that cost them the W. Not surprisingly, what’s wrong with Philip Rivers and Company is the overriding question making the rounds this week across all media platforms. Whatever ails San Diego, it’s but a few days to get it sorted before the Denver Broncos descend on the Bay Area.
Broncos slipped up in week 5 NFL betting to the Falcons, but, clearly, Denver remain the bookmaker’s favourite on the NFL odds board. So too in public betting circles. Pinnacle reopened with the Broncos at -2.5 (-110) but the NFL betting line shot up to -3 (-120) almost in minutes on the heels of an avalanche of Broncos money coming down the wire. If this NFL betting trend continues it’s quite possible the Broncos will be bet up further. What is worth noting here is the quarterback question mark that hangs over the Broncos. Trevor Siemian wasn’t even dressed as the backup on Sunday, prompting speculation whether he’ll start on Thursday. Another thing to consider is Gary Kubiak being hospitalised following Sunday’s loss to Atlanta. It’s unlikely he’ll be cleared to travel (keep an eye on that titbit). One thing bettors can conclude after week 5 NFL betting is Trevor Siemian is more important to success than previously thought.
Sunday, October 16, 2016
Niners vs. Bills
Advanced Line: Bills -7
Opening Line (10/09): Bills -7.5
The Bills are riding a three-game winning streak into week 6 NFL betting. The Niners are riding a four-game losing streak into week 6 NFL betting. Predictably, the Bills are in favour for this game across all sports betting platforms and in a big way after backing up the shutout win over the Patriots with a comprehensive win over the Los Angeles Rams on the road. Word is Colin Kaepernick is set to start for the Niners in week 6. Whether he makes a difference to week 6 NFL picks remains to be seen, but as far as the market outlook is concerned it hasn’t made an impact at all. Books haven’t really adjusted against the Bills.
Eagles vs. Redskins
Advanced Line: PK
Opening Line (10/09): PK
The Eagles suffered their first loss and Carson Wentz proved to be human after all throwing his first interception. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, meanwhile, have turned things around behind a three-game winning streak. Curiously, the public isn’t put off by the Eagles who lost to the Lions 24-23 on Sunday. Almost immediately, the Eagles were bet up to road chalk anywhere from -1.5 (-115) with the Greek to -2 (-107) with Pinnacle and -2 (-110) with Bookmaker.
Browns vs. Titans
Advanced Line: Titans -5.5
Opening Line (10/09): Titans -6
The Titans masterminded the upset over the Dolphins in week 5 on the road, defying the NFL odds to both win straight up and cover. You could chalk it up to the disappointing Dolphins simply being hyped up for no reason yet again and not playing up to expectations. Then again, Marcus Mariota and the Titans do catch a break with the hapless Browns in week 6, who – if you can believe how unlucky they are – find themselves down to their fourth quarterback after Cody Kessler went down with a shoulder injury. Yikes.
Ravens vs. Giants
Advanced Line: Giants -3
Opening Line (10/09): Giants -3
Something is going to have to give when these two sides collide in week 6. Ravens are riding a two-game losing streak and they fired their offensive coordinator Marc Trestman following Sunday’s loss to the Redskins. Giants are riding a three-game losing streak with Eli Manning playing his worst game thus far but haven’t fired anybody as far as we can tell. Bookies opened this game with the standard field goal advantage allotted to a home team but money appears to be split between this pair at early doors. It appears early sharp money likes the Ravens at -3 as the NFL line is already climbing to -120 with some sports betting shops.
Panthers vs. Saints
Advanced Line: No Line
Opening Line (10/09): No Line
No Line is available until MNF is concluded and word on Cam Newton’s status is revealed.
Jaguars vs. Bears
Advanced Line: Bears -2
Opening Line (10/09): Bears -2
The Chicago Bears are coming of a heart breaking 29-23 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on the road last Sunday. However, they return to Soldier Field where Brian Hoyer led them to their first victory on home turf in six games. The Bears open at -2 (-105) with Pinnacle and were bet up to -2 (-110) almost immediately with sharp money coming down the wire. Public bettors though appear to fancy the Jaguars, who are coming off a win over the Colts in week 4 and a bye in week 5.
Rams vs. Lions
Advanced Line: Lions -3
Opening Line (10/09): Lions -3
The Detroit Lions upset public darling Philadelphia Eagles in a narrow 24-23 win at Ford Field, coming through as the closing home underdogs. In week 6 NFL betting they open as the home faves to the Los Angeles Rams, who were steamrolled by the Buffalo Bills in the Golden State. At early doors, tickets taken appear to be split almost down the middle between this pair but sharp money likes the Lions at home quite significantly (82% of the money wagered is with the Lions according to SBR Consensus Betting polls) . In fact, the Lions are bet up to -3 (-125) with Bookmaker and Bodog (to name a few top-rated sportsbooks) at the time of writing.
Steelers vs. Dolphins
Advanced Line: Steelers -4.5
Opening Line (10/09): Steelers -7.5
Well, 15 TDS in five games (for an average of 3 per game) and 9 TDs in the last two games (for an average of 4.5 TDs per week in the last fortnight) makes the Steelers the undisputed road favourites to the Dolphins, who are 1-4 SU and looking rather sorry on the NFL odds board. At the time of writing, the Steelers emerge as the top week 6 consensus NFL pick with 70.40% of tickets taken and 60.16% of the money. It does appear though that sharp money went towards the Dolphins plus the points at early doors because Miami opened at +7.5 (-111) with Pinnacle and there were plenty of takers, prompting the NFL line to move up to +7.5 (-120) with several noteworthy sportsbooks including Bet365, William Hill and BetOnline.
Bengals vs. Patriots
Advanced Line: Patriots -7
Opening Line (10/09): Patriots -8
The Bengals regressed to another loss on the season, a 28-14 loss to the Cowboys on the road despite emerging as one of the top consensus NFL picks last week. Although the Bengals are 2-3 SU they’re falling behind in a tough AFC North division that includes the 4-1 SU Steelers and the 3-2 SU Ravens. Facing a fired up New England Patriots isn’t ideal particularly considering the offensive struggles Andy Dalton is dealing with right now. An unhappy camper he was for the first three quarters in Dallas as the scoreboard flashed a big fat zero next to Cincinnati. Only for a few garbage scores late in the game did the Bengals avoid the shutout. Not surprisingly, the Patriots opened as the -8 home favourites on Sunday and quickly shot up to -9 or -10 depending on your choice sportsbook. Patriots are notoriously favoured in public circles.
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Advanced Line: Raiders -1.5
Opening Line (10/09): Raiders -2
The Raiders win yet another game by the skin of their teeth. How long can this go on before it bites them? It remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting this game is experiencing a bit of a reverse line movement at early doors. Pinnacle opened with the Raiders at -2 but now they hang on -1.5 (+102), thanks to the public betting the Chiefs to the tune of 58.11% of tickets at early doors. Sharps, however, were on the Raiders at early doors to the tune of 65.59% of money wagered.
Falcons vs. Seahawks
Advanced Line: Seahawks -7
Opening Line (10/09): Seahawks -6
Maybe the Falcons are legit or maybe Trevor Siemian didn’t get the credit he deserved for leading the Broncos to a 4-0 SU start, a feat previously attributed solely to the formidable D. In any event, the Falcons beat the defending champions Denver Broncos at Mile High in week 5 NFL betting to underscore their four-game winning streak ahead of week 6 NFL betting. Promptly, the NFL line for their upcoming clash with the Seahawks slipped to -6 at open doors where it’s holding for the time being.
Cowboys vs. Packers
Advanced Line: Packers -6.5
Opening Line (10/09): Packers -4
Westgate anticipated an opening line of -6.5 last week but following the Cowboys’ win over the Bengals at home and the Packers’ slightly lucky escape against the Giants the NFL betting line whittled down to -4. Clearly, the Cowboys are a legit team on both sides of the ball and underdog bettors lapped up the points so quickly that they forced the NFL betting line down. If it comes down further, it’s sure to prompt buyback on the Packers, no? After all, it’s the Packers at Lambeau.
Colts vs. Texans
Advanced Line: Texans -3.5
Opening Line (10/09): Texans -3.5
The Texans are 3-2 SU on the season with wins at home only. The losses interspersed in between were awful blowouts that most Houston fans would rather forget. The NFL line hovers on the standard field goal advantage awarded to home teams and, in some cases, features the added .5 hook. As it is, this game is splitting bettors almost evenly with a slight lean towards the Texans that sees them bet up to a high of -3 (-125) with Sports Interaction. Pinnacle offers the added hook -3.5 with tempting +113 NFL odds attached. Are the Texans to be trusted to cover at home against Andrew Luck, who is arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the current game?
Monday, October 17, 2016
Jets vs. Cardinals
Advanced Line: Cards -6.5
Opening Line (10/09): Cards -7.5
No Carson Palmer, no problem. Drew Stanton led the Cards to a 33-21 win over the Niners in Thursday Night Football. Still the Cards are only 2-4 SU on the season. The Jets slipped to a third straight defeat, fourth overall on the season. Some allowances have to be made for a tough schedule that featured the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks and Steelers. Crickey, that’s a formidable schedule against some of the toughest teams in the game. Alas, fingers are pointing to Ryan Fitzpatrick and calls for Geno Smith (seriously??) are being heard. Given these question marks and Palmers’ status yet unknown, not every single sportsbook has posted a number for this game. Best to wait with your week 6 NFL picks until more information is received.