Week 5 Value Plays & Betting Trends to Consider for Your NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 6, 2015 10:25 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2015 10:25 PM GMT

We begin the bye weeks in earnest with more teams off, four in all, which makes being an NFL handicapper just a little bit harder, trying to find the best value for NFL picks.

Last week I was 1-2, with Philadelphia failing to beat the betting odds with just 26 seconds remaining and Vikings/Broncos total going Over by half point, thanks to the dreaded defensive score I mentioned in last week's video.

On to this week backed with a 6-3 ATS mark the past three weeks on this NFL picks, ready to do damage.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of WagerWeb.

 

Buffalo Tops Tennessee
Each year like most football bettors, you end up finding a team in which you have a god pulse on their plays and consistently capitalize on. Thus far the Buffalo has been one such team, who I have used in either video and posted three straight wins on or against them.

I will herd up with the Bills again, this time backing them again on the road. The Tennessee defense in nowhere as good as the New York Giants, which allow Buffalo to run the ball more and help out Tyrod Taylor in the passing game.

Buffalo has the defensive front seven to pressure Marcus Mariota and let's keep in mind the Titans are 1-9 ATS after two or more consecutive losses the last two seasons. Take the Bills and collect big bills with Buffalo.

NFL Pick: Bills -1 at 5Dimes

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Detroit's Bad Play and Luck Stops
The old Ray Charles and Jimmy Lewis song seems a perfect for the Detroit Lions again, the NFL's last winless team. After a missed called potentially cost Detroit on Monday night in Seattle, a slightly shorter version of the lyrics from Charles song reads, "...if it wasn't for bad luck, I believe I would have no luck at all."

Sometimes bad breaks are a part of the game and when you are not going well, this is what can happen. However, the Lions played with more life than in recent games and I am sure they will use as fuel to end this losing streak. Detroit's offensive coordinator needs to be more enlighten to throw shorter passes as an extension of the running game, which is failing miserably.

I am well aware the Lions are 0-6 and 1-5 ATS against Arizona, but all five defeats against the sportsbooks odds came in the desert and the lone cover was it Michigan.

When home teams are scoring 17 or less points a game, after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests, and the line is -3 to +3, teams like the Lions are 33-10 ATS.

NFL Pick: Lions +2.5 at Bookmaker

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Giants Overwhelm Inferior Foe
The New York Giants have very good matchup edges in this ball game over San Francisco. The 49ers Colin Kaepernick has lost confidence in throwing the ball down field, which means more reliance on running the ball. As Green Bay showed, when the Niners tried to run on early downs, they would stack the box daring San Fran coaches to call passes and when they were third and long, the Pack blitzed and played tight man coverage. New York has the top run defense in the NFL to control San Francisco, which really works against them.

The 49ers secondary is nothing special without a pass rush and Eli Manning can take advantage of this edge at home with his talented receivers. Let's keep this simple, G-Men by 17 for value plays at eight or less.

NFL Pick: Giants -7 at BetOnline

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