Week 5 Tilts Provide Betting Value Worthy Of Your NFL Pick

Jay Pryce

Saturday, October 8, 2016 10:33 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 10:33 PM UTC

The Bengals and totals bets in the Bears-Colts and Redskins-Ravens tilts provide the best NFL betting opportunities in Week 5. Take a look at our predictions.


SBR YTD record: 131-92-6 (avg. odds -104); NFL (2016-17): 23-9 (avg. odds -106)

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (pick ‘em)

The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 19.5 points per game to begin the year, but have played three of the top nine scoring defenses from last season (Jets, Broncos, and Steelers). Dallas’ numbers on defense are a bit inflated after beating up on the hapless Bears and 49ers the last two weeks. Expect Cincy to put up 20-plus points.

Will Dallas be able to hang offensively? Like the Bengals, scheduling has helped the Cowboys kick off the season averaging 25.2 points per game. All four opponents ranked in the bottom half of scoring defenses in 2015. Still, rookie quarterback Dak Prescott inspires much more confidence than any options under center last season, including perhaps a hobbled Tony Romo.

Marvin Lewis’ defense is yielding 17.7 points per game in its last 17 road contests, gifting more than 30 once in this span. Dallas will likely have to flirt with the number to find victory here.

The Bengals are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games kicking off either chalk or a short-priced dog of 3 points or less.


Free NFL Pick: Bengals -126
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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 Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-4)

The Redskins allow 30.0 points per game in their last 11 road contests and have not held an opponent south off 21 in this span. In fact, they have never allowed less than 17 points in any road game under head coach Jay Gruden. Baltimore gets bettors half way to the total almost by default before the game even kicks off.

In order for this wager to surpass the number, Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins and the offense will have to keep up. The market suggests it will. The ‘Skins puts up 25.8 points per game as a road dog of less than a touchdown over the last three seasons. The OVER is 8-1 in this situation.


Free NFL Pick: Over 45
Best Line Offered: at Justbet

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 Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Chicago has scored 17 points or less in four of its last five road games and enters the matchup one of the least efficient in the NFL. Its 0.264 points per play rank better than only the Texans (0.253) and Titans (0.248). The Bears offense, in fact, has scored more than the betting market projects in just two of its last 14 games.

Bettors think of Indy as all-offense behind quarterback Andrew Luck, but the defense holds its own. Under head coach Chuck Pagano it tends to have some of the biggest home/road splits in the NFL. In 2015, for example, the unit yielded 21.2 points per game at Lucas Oil Stadium as opposed to 29.8 away from home; in 2014, the split was 16.9 to 28.5.

Under Pagano, with a game total listed less than 50 points and favored to win at home, Indy allows 16.5 points per game. Many signs point to Chicago’s offense suffering another listless Sunday. 

Free NFL Pick: Under 48
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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